Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament

[GambleAB]

Bear with me on this one.....

I am putting a friend into a decent sized buyin land based event next month. The field will be right around 100 people. Starting stack 10k, one hour levels, top9 pay out (may be top 18 if a few more then 100 show up, but 10th-18th will basically be buyin back).

Here is the scenario. I know that my friend is at LEAST the 3rd best player that will be in the tournament. There are 2 other people that are comparable in skill to him, but I'm not sure if they have ever played a live event, or one as high a buyin as this, or even anything with these long levels, so it wouldn't be a stretch to say that my friend would be the best player in this event. I was going over some specific situations with him just now, preparing him for higher-level tournament thinking, when for the first time in my life I came across the old "would you fold aces" scenario.

Stop.

Listen.

Seriously.

Here is my contention: If you get kings in the first level, raise to 100 (blinds start at 25-25), and someone pushes allin after you, I said to him "you have to fold that". He disagreed. I said that even if he said "I'm allin" and turned over jacks you STILL had to fold this. He reminded me that that would basically be the same situation as if you had aces and someone did the same thing (way way overbet allin preflop). MY contention was that the EV of you being in the tournament...as the most highly skilled player there....at 10k in chips is going to be higher than your EV of having 20k in chips 80% of the time and not being there the other 20% of the time. He disagreed, and said that you should ALWAYS play aces allin pre, and 99% of the time play kings allin pre. I was wondering if anyone had any thoughts on this.


The readers digest version: 100-125 person live tournament with a very slow structure, filled with all online players. You are the best person in the tournament. Is it worth it, in the first level, to play a pot for all of your chips preflop, even if you KNOW you have the best hand? I say no, because against these players, you will chip up regardless by playing smaller pots and outplaying them over the course of the 2-3 days, and the risk of busting out 20% of the time isn't worth the reward of doubling up 80% of the time. You will more than likely get the chips anyway, it will just take a little bit more work.

Any thoughts?

[curtains]

Cmon of course you want to go allin as an 80% favorite!

[freehat]

This is a pretty ridiculous post, its just poker no one has that much of an advantage, call all-in as an 80% favorite.

[Exitonly]

well 1) if you raise to 100 w/ KK and someone pushes for 10k... yea fold it.

2) if you raise to 100 and someone pushes and exposes JJ... uh call in a heartbeat.


You're going to have to win some allins to win this, doesnt matter if it's early or late, if you know you're best, you get your money in.

edit: even as the best player in the tournament, he won't cash more than 30% of the time. (Normally i'd say 20%.. but in a smaller field w/ deep stacks, could be a bit more)

[GambleAB]

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You're going to have to win some allins to win this, doesnt matter if it's early or late, if you know you're best, you get your money in.

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Not true at all. I've played many tournament where I've built my stack up to over 10 times the starting stack, never exposing more than 33% of my stack on any one hand.

Anyone who has actually put some thought in this, please chime in, I'd love to hear your opinions.

[fnurt]

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You're going to have to win some allins to win this, doesnt matter if it's early or late, if you know you're best, you get your money in.

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Not true at all. I've played many tournament where I've built my stack up to over 10 times the starting stack, never exposing more than 33% of my stack on any one hand.

Anyone who has actually put some thought in this, please chime in, I'd love to hear your opinions.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a better idea. How about if you come back and ask again once you have "actually put some thought into it," because I don't think you have. The issue of whether there is a risk-free way to accumulate chips has been discussed to death on this forum, and the answer is no. Why do you suppose so many world-class players bust out on the first day of the WSOP?

Yes, sometimes there will be tournaments where everything goes smoothly and you steadily accumulate chips. But that doesn't mean you're doing so without luck. The other players still have two cards, and you are getting lucky every time they fail to hit their hand and have to fold. There is no way that any method of collecting "small pots" will end up giving you a better than 80% chance to double up.

[calmasahinducow]

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Anyone who has actually put some thought in this, please chime in, I'd love to hear your opinions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aaron,

We've had several threads like this. I suggest you read this one and read Paul Phillips' and Greg Raymer's comments, two people I'm sure you know put some "thought into this."

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/...art=1&vc=1

Paul Phillips' first comment:
"I've said I'll take ANY edge (or even ANY COIN FLIP) early, and that NOBODY is good enough to intentionally refuse a 60/40 edge early. Repeatedly applying a 60/40 edge would make you one of the top players in tournament poker."

[ActionJeff]

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You're going to have to win some allins to win this, doesnt matter if it's early or late, if you know you're best, you get your money in.

[/ QUOTE ]


Not true at all. I've played many tournament where I've built my stack up to over 10 times the starting stack, never exposing more than 33% of my stack on any one hand.

Anyone who has actually put some thought in this, please chime in, I'd love to hear your opinions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Aaron,

A month ago I would not have known what you meant. But after playing the WCOOP main event I would have to agree. It is just so easy to keep accumulating chips against weak players. I don't have experience in tournaments with deep structures other then that event because I only play online as of now, but I wonder , what is the chance of building your stack to double what you started with when you are easily the best player at the table? My gut instinct says you should be calling if you know they have a smaller pair. Theoretically, if you felt you were 80% to double up at some point even after this folding this hand, wouldn't you want to call anyway? Certainly having a larger stack early on as a very skilled player is going to be very beneficial, and will further increase your odds of accumulating even more chips.

-Jeff

[AtticusFinch]

My first thought is that I disagree completely. Even if you're the best player in the tourney, short term luck is a huge factor in any MTT. There simply aren't enough hands in any MTT to overcome the enormous variance in play. The best player in the tourney might consider passing in a small edge for all his chips. But on AA vs. JJ? I don't buy it.

The slow blind structure is an interesting twist, but I still believe that this is simply too much of an edge to pass up.

[AtticusFinch]

Let's look at it from another angle. ICM values an early double-up at roughly 1.9 buyins, but of course, it doesn't take skill into account.

looking at the numbers, .8 * 1.9 + .2 * 0 = 1.52. So your EV is 152% here if you're an average player. But of course, your friend is not an average player.

What would you guess his EV is with 1 buyin vs with 2? A very very good player may have a 100% roi giving him a 200% EV for one buyin. But that same player will also have more than 152% EV after an early double-up. He'll likely be able to leverage his early big stack into more chips.

His skill created a 100% ev shift at one buyin. It only needs to make a 33% ev shift at two buyins for calling with an 80% edge to be correct. The math clearly favors calling.