Now or later?

[PokerBob]

Canterbury 15/30 (9 handed)
I am playing well and have 3K in front of me. I have no idea if anyone notices, but I have my "A" game. 2 bad limpers, tight ABC player raises, I 3-bet next in the hijack with J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], folds to BB (total fish) who calls, both limpers and OR call.

Flop (5 players) (15SB)
J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB checks, 2 limpers check, OR checks, I bet, BB folds, both limpers call, OR now check raises , I....

[Brom]

I'd go for the 3-bet now. There is a chance that the 2 limpers will now fold facing 2 bets cold, plus the possibility of a cap coming from behind them.

The pot is already big enough that you'd like to take this down as soon as possible. There is a chance that the OR might not bet out again on the turn, and you therefore would not be able to make it anything more than 2 SBs to the field anyways. You can also hope that the OR caps the flop and bets into you again on the turn, allowing you to raise anyways, but have all those extra bets in there.

If more than one person is on the flush draw, then they will all pay a lot to see it miss. Charge them now.

[tongni]

Definately later. I don't think you are folding a gutshot here, and the only hands you will see fold are ones that are drawing slim. I pop the turn no matter what card rolls off.

[AceHigh]

Now. You might not get the chance on the turn, you have too much pot equity to pass on this oppurtunity to charge the field.

Later. Just call and raise the turn, because the bad limpers arent throwing the flush draw away anyways. They might however, much for two BB on the turn if they miss. Besides, you've got the current nuts, you can slowplay a little here, bob.

[GoodOL]

I think this is a CLEAR three bet.

You sometimes just call a CR from your immediate right when it is multiway....if you are certain that the raiser will bet into you on the turn. Then, you can charge the chasers a double turn bet. However, you cannot be certain he will bet the turn (you said he was ABC...he would have bet into you with a hand on the flop hoping you'd raise to clear the field...he has a draw and will check turn if he misses).

[andyfox]

Three things I consider in such situations are 1) what is the highest card on the flop;2) do I have top set or not; and 3) how draw-rich is the flop texture.

The high card is important because the lower it is the more likely is is that the turn will be an overcard and thus the more likely that it will discourage the flop bettor from betting out again on the turn. If I have top set, it's unlikely the original bettor has top pair, so again the less likely he'll continue betting on the turn. And when a flop has a flush draw, it might mean the check-raiser is pushing a draw and would not bet if he misses on the turn.

The limpers are probably more likely to call two more small bets on the flop than they are to call two big bets cold on the turn.

The deciding factor here might be that you 3-bet pre-flop. That is, the check-raiser "knew" that you would be betting the flop and would have checked what he sees as a good hand regardless of what he flopped. All things considered, I'd opt for waiting until the turn.

[Gabe]

[ QUOTE ]
Three things I consider in such situations are 1) what is the highest card on the flop;2) do I have top set or not; and 3) how draw-rich is the flop texture.


The high card is important because the lower it is the more likely is is that the turn will be an overcard and thus the more likely that it will discourage the flop bettor from betting out again on the turn. If I have top set, it's unlikely the original bettor has top pair, so again the less likely he'll continue betting on the turn. And when a flop has a flush draw, it might mean the check-raiser is pushing a draw and would not bet if he misses on the turn.


The limpers are probably more likely to call two more small bets on the flop than they are to call two big bets cold on the turn.


The deciding factor here might be that you 3-bet pre-flop. That is, the check-raiser "knew" that you would be betting the flop and would have checked what he sees as a good hand regardless of what he flopped. All things considered, I'd opt for waiting until the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm having a hard time following you on this. I was surprised by your last sentence, because to me your arguments seemed to support 3-betting the flop.

Does the third paragraph support 3-betting the flop or waiting for the turn? It would seem to make me want to 3-bet the flop.

It seems as though you're saying that because of the 2nd paragraph and the 4th paragraph, the check-raiser might not bet the turn. Is that right?

[andyfox]

Turn card here is going to be an undercard to the jack 75% of the time. So that's an argument in favor of later. Hero having top set is an argument in favor of now. The two diamond is an argument in favor of now.

In general, I prefer to do everything I can to win a pot rather than win an extra bet or two. So my third paragraph, for me, is an argument in favor of waiting.

The 4th pargraph is an argument in favor of waiting. That is, villain's check-raise is more likely a real hand because hero 3-bet pre-flop. Thus he's more likely to follow through with a turn bet.

So it's a close decision I think and I lean in favor of waiting.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn card here is going to be an undercard to the jack 75% of the time. So that's an argument in favor of later. Hero having top set is an argument in favor of now. The two diamond is an argument in favor of now.

In general, I prefer to do everything I can to win a pot rather than win an extra bet or two. So my third paragraph, for me, is an argument in favor of waiting.

The 4th pargraph is an argument in favor of waiting. That is, villain's check-raise is more likely a real hand because hero 3-bet pre-flop. Thus he's more likely to follow through with a turn bet.

So it's a close decision I think and I lean in favor of waiting.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are neglecting to take into account the possibility of the flop being capped AND villian leads turn.

or flop being capped but wont be if you call. AND the possility it WOULD have been capped if you 3 bet and the turn comes bad costing you both the flop bets AND extra bets on the turn from the c'rer slowing down.

Barron