TT - Big pot - Double paired board

[Luke]

CO is semi-aggressive (37/12/1.0), no other reads. I'm pretty sure I made at least one mistake, maybe two.

What do you think?

Party Poker (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, 3 limps, Hero raises, SB (no read) 3-bets, we lose 2, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB bets, we all call.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB bets, MP1 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, SB folds, CO calls.

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot:

[callmedonnie]

I would have raise the flop. I also might have capped pf, but that all depends. I don't like 3 bets from the sb.

[Nick Royale]

I think I would have raised the flop and bet the turn in an attempt for a free sd. Folding to any other aggression (I would have called a flop 3-bet though).

[Dopey]

Nick,

I agree with your line, but would like your thoughts on a few scenarios after we raise this flop.

Scenario 1: All call our flop raise. Turn is a rag and someone donk bets, Hero ?.... (Does it matter who donks?)

I really don't know where I would go here. Folding is probably in order right?

If folding is not correct then what if...

Scenario 2: All call our flop raise, Turn is a A, K, Q, or 9, and its donk bet by someone, Hero ?.... (Does it matter who donks?).

Pretty automatic fold right? A J on the turn worth a call if its the SB who donks and you are closing the action(right?) but what if its not SB and you dont close the action. I assume its still a call but its closer given the possiblity of a SB c/r (read dependent to fold, no read = call).

Scenario 3: SB 3-bets our flop raise, all call (I agree we are calling the 3-bet when we raise)

We are folding this unimproved right? What if we semi-improve - J on turn we'd call one bet open-ended, K or 8 are we calling getting likely 14-16:1 on the call. I assume we have to fold the gutshot assumming we are not good enough when we hit even given the odds we are getting.

Thoughts?

Dopey [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Scenario 1: All call our flop raise. Turn is a rag and someone donk bets, Hero ?.... (Does it matter who donks?)

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm folding no matter what. The scenario that's closest is if the turn brings a Q and someone else than pfr. I'm still folding though, with raising as 2nd.

[ QUOTE ]
Scenario 3: SB 3-bets our flop raise, all call (I agree we are calling the 3-bet when we raise)

[/ QUOTE ]
Yup, fold UI. Calling with a oesd or gut-shot is pretty easy, we're getting 16-14:1 (I didn't check your math here)and have 4+2 outs (we're also probably closing the action). Sometimes we're drawing dead, but not often. Sometimes we'll split when hit, but there's no doubt we have more than the 3 outs required.

Given your line, I think betting the river is in order. You will earn calls from A-high, and may get JJ to fold.

I am also betting the flop here, betting turn, and betting river. I think from this type of opponent A high calls you down, so you have value in betting the end.

[Luke]

So you guys are all for continuing on the flop but you want to raise and call a 3-bet.

What hand range are you putting the SB after he 3-bets preflop and then bets the flop?

I'm thinking it's one that will not make many mistakes when I raise the flop, but I could be wrong.

Luke

[Luke]

My plan was to call the flop and then on the turn fold to an ace or king, call a jack, and raise any other card.

With a turn raise I figured I had a good chance of scaring away JJ or AK, hands that I'm not really going to get to fold with a flop raise/turn bet.

AA/KK/AQ are obviously not going anywhere and against them I at worst cost myself an extra big bet.

On the river, at the time of the hand, I froze up a bit and checked.

But after thinking about it, I think his hand distribution is something like this:
hands that I beat and will call - Ax (30%) Kx (10%)
hands that call and I lose to - JJ, 9x (5%)
hands that checkraise - Qx (2%)
hands that fold - busted draws, Ax/Kx sometimes, JT, etc (53%)

With that range, I certainly feel like I missed out on a value bet.

As it was, the CO had A8o and MHWG.

Thanks for the comments...

Luke

[arch12]

[ QUOTE ]
On the river, at the time of the hand, I froze up a bit and checked.

But after thinking about it, I think his hand distribution is something like this:
hands that I beat and will call - Ax (30%) Kx (10%)
hands that call and I lose to - JJ, 9x (5%)
hands that checkraise - Qx (2%)
hands that fold - busted draws, Ax/Kx sometimes, JT, etc (53%)

With that range, I certainly feel like I missed out on a value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you assign villain the above you cannot bet the river for value. In order to bet the river, you need to be good ~55% of the time when villain calls. According to your estimates this is not the case, and thus checking behind is correct.

Raising the flop isn't a good move in my opinion. Your primary concern with this hand should be protection. A flop raise will only inflate the pot, giving gut shots and overs the correct odds to draw on. While it is extremely hard to protect here, I feel a turn raise will knock out overs and some weak draws. The added benefit to a turn raise is the likelihood of a free showdown, or the ability to fold to a 3-bet.