AKs level 1 $22

splashpot · #1 09-16-2005, 04:23 PM

***** Hand History for Game 2722200113 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:15791929 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Friday, September 16, 16:20:02 EDT 2005
Table Table 14262 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: DaRatzNutz ( $775 )
Seat 2: thoth19 ( $840 )
Seat 3: jack52469 ( $800 )
Seat 4: HookEm_22 ( $740 )
Seat 5: thefirm53 ( $800 )
Seat 6: SVC16 ( $800 )
Seat 7: Farleyboy ( $785 )
Seat 8: DaMossel ( $800 )
Seat 9: Toisbig ( $870 )
Seat 10: Translucity ( $790 )
Trny:15791929 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Translucity [ As Ks ]
HookEm_22 folds.
thefirm53 calls [15].
SVC16 folds.
Farleyboy calls [15].
DaMossel folds.
Toisbig folds.
Translucity raises [70].
>You have options at Table 13789 Table!.
DaRatzNutz folds.
thoth19 folds.
jack52469 folds.
thefirm53 calls [55].
Farleyboy folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9c, Qs, 9s ]
thefirm53 checks.
Translucity bets [140].
thefirm53 raises [350].
Translucity?

#2 09-16-2005, 04:31 PM

easy fold.

Flush draw with 2 overs is not worth 210 more chips.

Oluwafemi · #3 09-16-2005, 05:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
easy fold.

Flush draw with 2 overs is not worth 210 more chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

he does have the nut flush draw.

Nicholasp27 · #4 09-16-2005, 04:35 PM

you are beat

fold

Oluwafemi · #5 09-16-2005, 05:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9c, Qs, 9s ]
Translucity checks...

[/ QUOTE ]

splashpot · #6 09-16-2005, 06:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9c, Qs, 9s ]
Translucity checks...

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
I understand folding to the raise on the flop, but you don't think I should lead the flop at all? Do you never bet AK on the flop unless you hit an A or K? Surely my Ace high is worth something. I have a great draw and it is very likely that I still have the best hand.

#7 09-16-2005, 06:11 PM

It is not very likely that you have the best hand, unless you are referring to your state of mind before you are raised on the flop. The way the hand has been played thus far, I think you should either push or fold. You can't give him the opportunity to get away from his hand if your flush hits or you outdraw a Q with an A or a K. Fold and wait for a better spot, but if you must play push and commit him to the hand.

P.S. QQ sure would suck for you

#8 09-16-2005, 06:15 PM

Nevermind, no way he has QQ. Didn't notice the limp call preflop. Sorry. You're still almost certainly behind, and I very much doubt that your K or A are live outs. Fold and try to play smaller pots early on until you have a made hand already

bones · #9 09-16-2005, 06:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You're still almost certainly behind, and I very much doubt that your K or A are live outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, let's put together a range of hands for villian.

Behind

99- Most unlikely hand, probability wise and with his flop raise.

AA/KK/QQ- very unlikely, given preflop action but we still have 9 outs.

AQ- eh, you don't see AQ limped all that much in 22s, but it's possible. That gives us 12 outs (with him having a couple of redraws if we make our hand on the turn)

A9- I don't see him putting in a big raise on the flop, but it's possible. In this case we have 9 outs.

KQ- I think this is the most likely hand. Fits both preflop and flop play. In this case, we have 12 outs.

Ahead

JT- Donks love JT. It's favored over 22!!!!111 Anyway, once in awhile you'll see someone make this play with JT, but it's pretty uncommon from my 22s experience. He has 10-12 outs, depending on if he has spades or not. We have redraws against anything but the sf.

2 spades- eh, I don't think you see a raise that isn't a push with 2 spades here. Either way, he's crushed if he has this hand, but I think it's pretty unlikely.

66-JJ- Possible. Looks like the flop didn't hit you and he wants to take a stab. We have a lot of outs, he has a couple redraws to the boat.

A bluff attempting to pwn your c-bet- Again, possible but somewhat unlikely.

I'm fairly bad at assigning probabilities to holdings, but as you see, there are several cases where both the A and K are outs, and not many where neither are outs.

splashpot · #10 09-16-2005, 06:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It is not very likely that you have the best hand, unless you are referring to your state of mind before you are raised on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]
That is exactly what I'm referring to. I'm now talking about my lead on the flop. I think the pot is too small for me to be pushing on the flop. Bet/fold the flop looks like the best play to me. Tell me why I'm wrong.