K9o TP on the flop

Pharity · #1 09-14-2005, 09:13 AM

Hi there!

Wasn't sure if this is a 3-bet or fold on the flop. SB is a LAG, BB is TAG and MP2 is a calling station. Perhaps someone wants to raise PF aswell? I didn't expect a PF raise to make it heads up though, because the looseness of the players to my left.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $2.
4 folds, MP2 calls, Hero (poster) checks, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB raises, MP2 calls, Hero?..

Whaddya think?

Petteri · #2 09-14-2005, 09:19 AM

I think you should fold.

Pot is yet small and your hand does not stand the action. Three players are already in the pot. Set or two pair is possible here. Straight draw is also out. Even If you ahead half of the deck potentially hurts you.

Nick Royale · #3 09-14-2005, 09:45 AM

I usually raise preflop, is CO and button loose? Even if both have a vpip of ~35-40% I expect to get them both to fold more than 60% of the time and buy position With that tight BB pretty often get it HU as well. (if we're talking loose like both ~50% vpip I like the check).

At the flop we need to consider that BB's hands are random. He could have hands like 99/22/33/92/32 etc. That being said he's also pretty likely to raise any 9 (or even PP's lower than 9's) to isolate the LAG. You also have to consider if the TAG is aware SB is a LAG, since otherwise he's pretty likely to fold 9x with x lower than a 9. Another important aspect is the size of the pot. You need to invest 3SB in a pot of the size 10SB to continue playing this marginal hand.

Taking all this into consideration I would fold this hand. The TAG is likely to have us beat and if not there are 2 other players in the pot that might. If we're ahead there are tons of cards that hurt us and I don't like that big investment in a pretty small pot.

ErrantNight · #4 09-14-2005, 10:09 AM

fold, maybe raise preflop

#5 09-14-2005, 10:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hi there!

Wasn't sure if this is a 3-bet or fold on the flop. SB is a LAG, BB is TAG and MP2 is a calling station. Perhaps someone wants to raise PF aswell? I didn't expect a PF raise to make it heads up though, because the looseness of the players to my left.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $2.
4 folds, MP2 calls, Hero (poster) checks, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB raises, MP2 calls, Hero?..

Whaddya think?

[/ QUOTE ]

Believe it or not, this is an easy three bet. The BB is raising with any 9 here, and probably 44+. There are WAY more combinations of 9's then there are two pair or better hands. if the TAG were not in the BB it would be much different.

Redd · #6 09-14-2005, 12:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hi there!

Wasn't sure if this is a 3-bet or fold on the flop. SB is a LAG, BB is TAG and MP2 is a calling station. Perhaps someone wants to raise PF aswell? I didn't expect a PF raise to make it heads up though, because the looseness of the players to my left.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $2.
4 folds, MP2 calls, Hero (poster) checks, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB raises, MP2 calls, Hero?..

Whaddya think?

[/ QUOTE ]

Believe it or not, this is an easy three bet. The BB is raising with any 9 here, and probably 44+. There are WAY more combinations of 9's then there are two pair or better hands. if the TAG were not in the BB it would be much different.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking that there's many 9s and worse PPs that will raise here too (especially if the TAG knows the LAG is LAG), and that putting Villain on such a narrow range of strong 9s and 2p/sets is a little tight.

But, I also have a huge amount of respect for both Nick and EN as posters, and I'm loathe to question both of them agreeing on something. Would either of you be interested in addressing this post?

#7 09-14-2005, 12:31 PM

I mean you could think "LAG is betting anything, TAG knows this and is trying to isolate with a pair of nines or something", but I think we are outthinking ourselves as a vast majority of the time this action means we are behind. I would need evidence that BB is really a TAG and not just a guy with decent PT stats. Even then it is pretty marginal to continue here.

#8 09-14-2005, 03:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hi there!

Wasn't sure if this is a 3-bet or fold on the flop. SB is a LAG, BB is TAG and MP2 is a calling station. Perhaps someone wants to raise PF aswell? I didn't expect a PF raise to make it heads up though, because the looseness of the players to my left.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $2.
4 folds, MP2 calls, Hero (poster) checks, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB raises, MP2 calls, Hero?..

Whaddya think?

[/ QUOTE ]

Believe it or not, this is an easy three bet. The BB is raising with any 9 here, and probably 44+. There are WAY more combinations of 9's then there are two pair or better hands. if the TAG were not in the BB it would be much different.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking that there's many 9s and worse PPs that will raise here too (especially if the TAG knows the LAG is LAG), and that putting Villain on such a narrow range of strong 9s and 2p/sets is a little tight.

But, I also have a huge amount of respect for both Nick and EN as posters, and I'm loathe to question both of them agreeing on something. Would either of you be interested in addressing this post?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to be offensive, but I've always been known to speak my mind. Think for yourself. Look at their post again, and try to think why they said what they said. Pot size is always an important factor.

First step in deciding how to proceed with a hand that does not have enough outs to proceed if it is behind is to figure out what range of hands your opponent likely has.

What does a TAG need to raise a random opponent (lets not be putting reads into his head) on the flop on this board?

How does our hand compare to that hand range?

Redd · #9 09-14-2005, 05:05 PM

I was agreeing with you in that the TAG could be raising alot of 9s, some raggedy 2p, or a set. What interested me is that Nick has essentially used the same hand range as both of us, but still decided this was a fold; I'm interested in the information beyond the TAG's hand range that justifies this fold.

I expect that their thinking was something to do with the number of players still in the pot. Even if we're beating the LAG 80% of the time, the calling station 90% of the time, and the TAG half of the time, we're only beating all of them like 35%. Add in the number of live draws against us and our equity goes down even further. My only concern with this is that despite the pot being smallish right now, it's certainly looking like it will be pretty big by showdown. I think it's a complicated problem that I can't solve by myself, and whatever the solution is is isn't an easy one to me.

And I'm also not trying to be offensive, but I trust Nick and EN because I've seen them consistently contribute some very good points to hand discussions for as long as I remember posting on these boards. You've been here for 15 days now and I don't recall reading any of your posts before; while I don't think that necessarily makes anyone a bad player (I mean, check out this guy), I'm still not going to trust your opinions over the regulars without due justification.

Nick Royale · #10 09-15-2005, 05:18 AM

If we look at these reads and assume they're 100% correct I agree with you, this is probably a 3-bet. And maybe that's what you should do when reading a post, since that's the information provided. But these reads seems very "black and white" to me, I don't have any numbers of how many hands we have on these players or how loose the calling station is, how laggy the lag is and if the tag is playing well or only have tagish stats. The reads also leads us to the problem of defining a calling station. According to pt a calling station is a player with stats like: vpip 20-30% pfr<5% and af<1.5. This makes me believe he'll fold crappy pairs for 2 cold, but call with 2 pairs and maybe slowplay sets in a small pot on a not very draw heavy board (in my experience these kind of players often calls 2 cold for a slowplay, not saying he won't with worse hands also). OP might have consider a calling station as a player calling down with any piece of the board... However, this is how I feel about the situation:

If: The LAG bets every piece of the board into 3 players, the TAG is realising this and tries to isolate him with 9x and some pocket pairs lower than 9, even though there's 2 players yet to act and the pot is tiny, and the calling station is calling with any piece of the board, this is an easy 3-bet.

But: If any of these reads are incorrect, it can very quickly swing our decision in a different direction. This is mostly because we're investing such a big ammount in relation to the current potsize.

So I have to put a lot of confident in these reads to be able to 3-bet. Unless I have "real" reads I rarely do that here.

If any of these reads are inaccurate we are likely to be in bad shape. Even if all reads are accurate we are still in a position where the other players are likely to have good/decent redraws, but we are likely to be drawing slim/dead if behind. If we 3-bet we still don't know where we're at and we can easily get exposed for a check/raise when we have to bet the turn. If all reads are correct (and the calling staion are calling 2 cold with a wide range of hands despite of the tiny pot) we are making a slightly +EV decision by 3-betting. If we're wrong the -EV decision we do by 3-betting will cost us alot of money. And I think we're often wrong here.