normal situation 215

[citanul]

without looking at any resource,

party 215, 5 handed, 100/200, bb has been just picking up monsters so has lots of chips. other than that, nothing special.

you're utg and pick up Q9o with 1100.

stacks going around to your left are:

2900, 1300, 1300, 3000, roughly, add some odds and ends to make it all 10k even [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

your move?

(to answer the first question, assume hero lost a pot last hand, or that utg opened last hand, so no talk please about "you should have pushed last hand," the hand is in a vacuum, besides that you have of course stolen at some point in the tournament.)

later we'll look at the icm or somesuch too.

citanul

[Nick B.]

I would fold.

[Jman28]

I fold, but it's not clear cut, I think.

[ QUOTE ]

to answer the first question,

[/ QUOTE ]

There is going to be a follow-up?

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

to answer the first question,

[/ QUOTE ]

There is going to be a follow-up?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, but it's clearly the first question that many people would come up with when looking at the situation.

citanul

[fluorescenthippo]

push if its suited?

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
push if its suited?

[/ QUOTE ]

you tell me.

and/or nick and jman and others can tell me.

i'm not going to offer anything close to a "solution" any time immediately-like, it's meant to have some discussion.

citanul

[bluefeet]

Instinctively, I would fold. Even after clearing the blinds, you're only a double-up away from t1600 chips. Adding in the "Hero lost a pot last hand", might open the calling range from BB perhaps more suspicious of a desperate-tilty move. Pushing through 4 people is always a tall order...

However - the other two shortie's will maintain a VERY small calling range...letting big-stack BB "do his job". You still hold adequate FE on the other big-stack, in that he's unlikely to "call", knowing BB can put him in, forcing a fold (Similarly not pushing over for his tourney, being covered by BB). So, you're basically gambling that BB doesn't awake to another big hand. Enjoying his chip lead, I think his range is still relatively tight (unless his "read" tells him otherwise). I would guess 99-TT+,AJs-Q+.

It boils down to how desperatly you need these chips. Assuming an aggressive bubble, you'll likely be only buying yourself a set of blinds, as others push you off the next two hands. I don't know that it's quite worth it for me with this hand. I'd rather wait for Button or CO position - ideally CO, where you can push into the other two shorter stacks, where t800ish is still significant FE.

Edit: In this position, I'm looking for 88-99+, AT+, KQ, maybe even QJs.

[good2cu]

I would fold Q9o in this spot even though I think it's real real close, far closer then everyone is making it out to be. Being this short we may not get any more shots at +EV moves. Also if both of our blinds get stolen(somewhat likly at the 215s),that leaves us 750 chips, so even if we double then we'd still only be back to 1400. I'm going to have to run some numbers but I think this is real close. At the 215s there is quite a few good players, and they are going to assume you are pushing here with a fairly wide range of hands, and adjust their calling ranges accordingly. Im thinking QJ+, K8+, Axs, A5o+, 44+ is a push here, but this range still might be too tight. We could go the rest of this tournament without seeing a +EV Move, and even if we see one we're probaly going to have lost a lot chips before it.

[ZeroPointMachine]

I push it but hate it. Your trapped between big stacks and are not likely to get many open looks in the future. The big stack on your right is not going to let you make a move. The big stack on your left will always have favorable pot odds in his blind.

[curtains]

I would certainly fold this 2 off the button.