Tricky spot on an action flop with ~250bb vs a LAG

[jhall23]

Villian in this hand is Loose Aggressive pre-flop, but not insane. He see's probably about 40% of flops and raises 1/2 of that. He actually seems if not good at least decent. Most of his raises are in position and he hasn't made continuation bet's into large fields (I know because I wiffed c/r'ing the field twice with him to my left at another table). He is at 3 of my tables and is up a good amount at all of them.

Within the last orbit at this table I doubled through him with top set over mid set and don't know if that is affecting his play at all.

I haven't yet noticed a hand that he re-raised with so I don't know what it means, but it isn't very common. But with his LAGginess PF and the recent hand I think he could do this with more than an AAxx hand.

I ran a bunch of simulations at two dimes and it looks like if he has a set without the nut flush draw that we are flipping coins if we see a showdown. Sometimes I'm up by 5% and sometimes down 5%. If he simply has the A high flush draw I'm hurting and I'm crushed if he has a set plus the nut flush draw. My hand seems great at first but not too many outs are to the nuts.

So yeah, I'm lost on this flop since there is the A on board and it's not the Ac. Since we are heads up and he re-raised PF I would think he would probably make a continuation bet here with or without AA, what do you think?

What's the plan for the hand? I'm pretty sure I don't want to escalate the pot here on the flop but can I check/fold this?

Party Poker Pot-Limit Omaha High, $0.25 BB (9 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG ($27.35)
UTG+1 ($26.60)
Hero ($65.50)
MP2 ($32.85)
MP3 ($127.75)
CO ($62.40)
Button ($24.25)
SB ($17.30)
BB ($34.88)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.1</font>, MP2 calls $1.10, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $5</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $3.90, MP2 folds.

Flop: ($11.70) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero .... <font color="#CC3333">

[jhall23]

Forgot to add about my image here. If villian is paying attention, which I would think at least a little since were on 3 tables together, then he should view me as Tight Aggressive. He should know that I raise PF with a decent range of hands and will bet post-flop with non-nut made hands as well as draws.

[autobet]

No you can't check fold this. You can bet out, check call or check raise. All are reasonable.

I would tend to check raise hoping my opp does not have the nut flush draw. If the board pairs or I miss my draw, so be it.

There is nothing wrong with check calling and looking at the turn. If the board pairs you are done with the hand. If a blank hits you should call a turn bet.

[jhall23]

When thinking about this hand while posting and since then I was leaning really strongly with going with a check/call on this flop.

I agree that I see reasons for a c/c, c/r or bet out on the flop, but why would you tend to check/raise the flop over the others? I'm thinking that this is mainly going to end up getting the opponent to fold any hands I am doing well against. I guess the only thing I like about it would be that I don't have to make any more decisions as I am committing myself to see the river. But if I call I can fold a paired turn and either way I pick up a bet on the flop.

I was actually thinking that I should just go ahead and treat all non pairing clubs as outs and bet out something like 2/3 - 3/4 pot on any non pairing turn card even a rag. The board is pretty scary and may be even more so then so maybe this could save me a tiny bit if he doesn't end up having top set and decides to call behind. Obviously I think I would have to call if pushed then.

Meh, still not sure on the turn but I don't see much good c/r the flop get's me after that action PF and the deepish stacks.

Thought this was a rare kinda interesting hand in SSPLO was hoping it would generate some discussion.

[autobet]

You are the favorite against trips...unless he has the nut flush draw and trips.

[jhall23]

Depends on the sidecards and which set it is (cause of possible runner straights with AA or cards in my draw) but yeah I know I am sometimes a favorite against trips here but never by very much. So I know that it's a postive expectation move to c/r and committ myself on the flop. I'm just trying to figure out if it is better then seeing a turn.

Let's assume he has top set here and and not the nut flush draw. If I c/r and he pushes with all the dead money in the pot he's not making a mistake dispite that he could be a dog. But I'm almost 50/50 to make the next card so I can call a pot size bet and not be making a mistake. So if I call and the board pairs I save most of my stack. If not I can then bet the turn and still have plenty of equity to get all in and he could make a mistake by not raising me and letting me save money if I miss the river. If I make my hand he will be making a mistake calling my bet there since he will be less then 2:1 to fill.

I could be leaving something important out here not sure. Like maybe he let's go on a flushing turn card, but I'm not putting too much stock in that against at least top set HU.

[Bartholow]

This was stated in original post...

[45Player]

Given the description of the villain I would think check-raising is by far the best play in this situation. You’re in trouble if he has a set plus the nut flush draw but IMO the chances of this are very small. He could have a wide range of hands here and can be expected to bet the flop.

Your argument against check-raising is that “this is mainly going to end up getting the opponent to fold any hands I am doing well against”. Yes, and that is a good thing.
I know I’m stating the obvious but drawing hands do much better on the flop if they can see the remaining 2 cards, than they do on the turn. If you don’t improve on the turn then you may be a dog against those hands you ‘were doing well against’ on the flop. Additionally if you improve on the turn (e.g. complete the flush), then you may not get any more cash from your opponent anyway. So I say, get rid of those ‘weaker’ hands on the flop. Also by just calling on the flop, you’re effectively giving these ‘weaker’ hands a free card, and that is a very bad thing if this free cards improves his hand to the point where he now proceeds to take all your money when he would have folded to a check-raise on the flop.

Also, I think it is a very bad mistake to check call the flop and then bet the turn if a rag comes. If I were the villain I would be asking myself why you check called that dangerous flop, and then bet the turn when the turn card cannot have improved your hand. I would be suspicious of this move and would probably call you with 2 crappy pair.
This is a disaster for you.
As you know, position is very important in Omaha, and by calling on the flop here, you are allowing your opponent to make maximum use of his good position. Check-raising takes that advantage away from him.

Regards

45

[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]
Given the description of the villain I would think check-raising is by far the best play in this situation. You’re in trouble if he has a set plus the nut flush draw but IMO the chances of this are very small. He could have a wide range of hands here and can be expected to bet the flop.

Your argument against check-raising is that “this is mainly going to end up getting the opponent to fold any hands I am doing well against”. Yes, and that is a good thing.
I know I’m stating the obvious but drawing hands do much better on the flop if they can see the remaining 2 cards, than they do on the turn. If you don’t improve on the turn then you may be a dog against those hands you ‘were doing well against’ on the flop. Additionally if you improve on the turn (e.g. complete the flush), then you may not get any more cash from your opponent anyway. So I say, get rid of those ‘weaker’ hands on the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, you have me thinking more about the positives of check/raising now. Couple things though.


[ QUOTE ]
Also by just calling on the flop, you’re effectively giving these ‘weaker’ hands a free card, and that is a very bad thing if this free cards improves his hand to the point where he now proceeds to take all your money when he would have folded to a check-raise on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really see how this could play into the hand. Think about the board and what possible hands that would improve on the turn? Any nonpairing paint is going to make my hand. I'm the one drawing here and the only weak hand that could improve on the turn would be something like 7766 which could turn a set. Someone with this is still going to be scared of the board based on the PF action.

However your other points about the villian folding to a scare card on the turn are very valid. I'm not sure what hands might call a c/r on the flop that I am beating but would then fold to a scare card. Maybe a top twoish type hand plus weak straight draw or lower set. Not so sure about top set though.

[ QUOTE ]

Also, I think it is a very bad mistake to check call the flop and then bet the turn if a rag comes. If I were the villain I would be asking myself why you check called that dangerous flop, and then bet the turn when the turn card cannot have improved your hand. I would be suspicious of this move and would probably call you with 2 crappy pair.
This is a disaster for you.


[/ QUOTE ]

If villian just calls my lead on the turn with a crappy two pair that's great. He is ahead and should be raising me all in. He allows me to price myself in to the river which I can then fold if I miss. I would have to check/call anyway so it could be a mistake for me, but I don't know if it is "Very Bad". I still could have up to 40% equity against a set or two pair on the turn.

And if it looks weird and might elicit a call from two pair, it might be an ok alternate line if I held a lockish hand like AA plus a club draw which based on the PF action I could easily have here.

[ QUOTE ]

As you know, position is very important in Omaha, and by calling on the flop here, you are allowing your opponent to make maximum use of his good position. Check-raising takes that advantage away from him.

Regards

45

[/ QUOTE ]

True and maybe alone makes c/r the flop my best move.

[45Player]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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Also by just calling on the flop, you’re effectively giving these ‘weaker’ hands a free card, and that is a very bad thing if this free cards improves his hand to the point where he now proceeds to take all your money when he would have folded to a check-raise on the flop.


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I don't really see how this could play into the hand. Think about the board and what possible hands that would improve on the turn? Any nonpairing paint is going to make my hand. I'm the one drawing here and the only weak hand that could improve on the turn would be something like 7766 which could turn a set. Someone with this is still going to be scared of the board based on the PF action.


Quote:

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Also, I think it is a very bad mistake to check call the flop and then bet the turn if a rag comes. If I were the villain I would be asking myself why you check called that dangerous flop, and then bet the turn when the turn card cannot have improved your hand. I would be suspicious of this move and would probably call you with 2 crappy pair.
This is a disaster for you.



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If villian just calls my lead on the turn with a crappy two pair that's great. He is ahead and should be raising me all in. He allows me to price myself in to the river which I can then fold if I miss. I would have to check/call anyway so it could be a mistake for me, but I don't know if it is "Very Bad". I still could have up to 40% equity against a set or two pair on the turn.



[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, suppose your opponent has a hand like A876, then if he doesn’t improve on the turn, calling on the flop and betting the turn when a rag comes will have the same effect as check-raising the flop. So, you have gained nothing there.

But supposing he makes 2 pair on the turn (e.g. if he has A876 and a 6 comes on the turn), then you’re a 37.5% underdog. If you bet the turn then he should raise all in and at that stage you have to call.

So, assuming your opponent has A876, let us compare the EVs from the point where he bets the flop.
If you check-raise, he should fold, giving you an Ev of $23.40 (I’m not saying he will fold but just for just for the sake of argument and ease of calculation, let’s say he does).
However if you call the flop bet, then bet the turn and are raised all-in, you have risked $57.40 to make a profit of $69.10, and at this stage your are a 37.5% underdog so this is a –EV play
(about -$10 if my calculations are right).
So you have gone from a +EV of $23.40 to a –EV of $10, and this is why I think this play is very bad.
I’m a bit rusty on the EV calculations so you might want to check them.
All comments appreciated.