Sox +115?

[DougOzzzz]

I almost never bet on my beloved Red Sox, but this line seems way off.

I mean, Aaron frickin Small? Yeah, his ERA and W-L record LOOKS good, but cmon. The guy is a journeyman who belongs in AAA. He's gotten exceptionally lucky.

On the other hand, David Wells has been the best starter on the Sox lately, and possibly the whole season. He's no ace, but a guy with 95 K's and only 14(!) BB's in 155 IP has got to be pretty good. In contrast, Small has 15 BB's in less than 1/3rd the innings, and his K rate (21 Ks, about 4.2 K/9) is much lower than Wells'. There is no question in my mind that this is a serious pitching mismatch.

With offenses roughly equal (maybe the SLIGHTEST of edges for NY because of Giambi's resurgence), the only thing the Yanks have going for them is HFA. That's worth about 20 cents. So, the line is basically saying the David Wells is worth 5 cents over Aaron Small.

Aaron, bleepin, Boone errr Small.

P.S. This is why ERA doesn't mean much over a small sample size (45 innings, say). I mean, AARON SMALL? Bah...

More stats:
xFIP: David Wells - 3.70
Aaron Small - 5.17

xFIP is a defense independant ERA based on K rate, BB rate, and GB/FB ratio. It has a significantly stronger correlation with future ERA than ERA itself.

[chiachu]

im on the sox too today, as well as the A's.

[mosuavea]

Im on this as well

[mrbaseball]

I have this one pretty fair. Yeah Small has a small sample though but even so his whip is better than Wells. Both pitched well in their last starts. Wells has done fine versus Yanks this year (2-1 3.20) and Wells with only 2 BBs in last 8 starts really impresses me, but I still don't see any edge here. They both went 9 last time out (114 pitches Wells and 112 Small) and it is late season so the pens need factoring and the Boston pen sucks although Foulke may make a difference I still like Yanks pen better.

[DougOzzzz]

I didn't factor in the bullpen, which was a mistake. I don't think it makes enough of a difference.

I seriously think you are VASTLY overrating Aaron Small. They guy had like a 4.9 something ERA in AAA when he was called up.

WHIP includes HITS, and Small has been very lucky on balls in play with a .252 BAA (compared to Wells' .325). True talent levels for pitcher's BABIP go from about .280 to .320 at the major league level with anything outside that range almost certainly due to good/bad luck.

[mrbaseball]

I'll admit chances are that Small is probably a mediocre bum. And if any lineup in baseball can bring out the bum in a guy it's Boston. But I haven't seen anything that makes me think this play has much edge in it.

I'd wait to fade him when he'll be a -230 fav against anyone but Boston [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] But I'm not on this one so I hope it comes in for you guys!

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll admit chances are that Small is probably a mediocre bum.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really understand you. If you agree with this, then how could you not think +115 is a good price for Boston? Do you think Wells is a bum too?

You really think the Yanks are THAT much better, outside of the pitcher matchup?

Why wait to fade Small? If he gets shelled tonight, he probably won't be -215 next time out as people will see him for what he is.

Edit:
A little math, and correct me where I'm wrong. I'll be pessimistic here, even.

Start at +100. Offenses are a wash. Yanks are home, fair price moves to +120 for BOS. Yanks bullpen edge moves it to maybe +130.

Now, the pitcher matchup. If the 2 teams were exactly even, playing at a neutral field, I'd say the team with Wells averages a 5-4 win. Meaning, I think Wells is 1 RPG better than Small. That equates to a WPCT of 61%. That's worth over 50 points. In fact, the break even point here is only about a .3 RPG difference between Wells and Small.

Where'd I go wrong?

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
how could you not think +115 is a good price for Boston?

[/ QUOTE ]

I honestly don't see a huge starting pitching gap here. So far Small has performed and Wells is decidedly past his prime. Maybe Small has been lucky ... maybe he hasn't been?

I just don't see enough here to push it much one way or the other. I try to concentrate on big gaps and edges and I just don't see it here. It doesn't mean I'm right. It just means I don't see enough edge (for me) to make a play here. I value past results much more than you and so far Small has been effective (lucky or not?). Will he be effective tonight? Until his armor cracks or the line gets really whacked out I'm not betting against it.