Some questions on winrates, bankrolls, moving up, and stuff

[Rasputin]

First, a brief history.

A little more than a year and a half ago I started playing online SnGs at Stars and got to the point where I was pretty decent. I branched out into limit ring games, it went horribly, and I tilted away my whole bankroll which wasn't all that significant in terms of absolute dollars. I took a little vacation then tried it again, and read SSHE and combined with some bonus whoring and a decent MTT finish, I built my bankroll and gave limit ring games another try. I have come to the conclusion that they aren't for me. Without a major tiltfest, I find myself barely beating the .5/1 games at Party. More to the point, they frustrate me to no end. I've switched to NL and it feels much more comfortable.

My bankroll is about $1500 but I started at the $25 NL games to get the hang of it before moving into deeper waters.

I read in this thread that an 8 PTBB/100 winrate is sustainable by fairly decent players.

I've got about eight thousand hands logged in PT and have been bouncing between 8 and 11 PTBB/100 for the last four thousand or so. I assume that eight thousand hands isn't enough to have reliable data. What is? In the limit discussions they talk of ten thousand as an absolute minimum and some talk of needing as many as 100,000. With variance lower at NL I would think you would need fewer hands. Anyone have a good rule of thumb I can use?

According to this thread and this thread I am ridiculously overbankrolled for this level, and I would like to move up as soon as I can.

The thing is, I seem to have developed a bit of a mental block about the $50 NL. I've taken a few shots there and been rudely spanked each time. It has gotten to the point where I go in expecting to lose my buyin and that's a self fulfilling prophecy of doom.

I'm fairly certain that I am good enough to play successfully at the $50 NL level. I have a hard time believing there's that much difference between the 25 and the 50.

Basically I need to convince myself that I'm good enough and to do that, I need to look at the math regarding bankrolls and risk of ruin and all that fun stuff. Does anyone have a decent way to judge the likely results of a higher level based on play at a lower level? Something like "If you're beating the 25NL for 9.27 PTBB/100 over 25k hands you're good enough for the 50NL"

Anyone?

I've found fimbulwinter's post in this thread and it helps but I was hoping for something math based. I'm guessing there's nothing like that out there, right?

[xorbie]

Try mixing in a table of 50 at the same time as you play 25 (assuming you multitable).

[Rasputin]

[ QUOTE ]
Try mixing in a table of 50 at the same time as you play 25 (assuming you multitable).

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I've been doing and I think it may be part of the problem. My losses have come when I get involved in a big hand and lose. I think what I'm going to do is try it with just one table until I get rid of the "prophecy of doom" feeling.

It's weird, it's not nervousness. I'm not afraid to lose the fifty bucks, it's not that big a dent in the bankroll and it certainly won't have an impact on my quality of life at all. It's almost as if I expect to do something stupid and get pissed at myself ahead of time just to save time later. Then when I lose, I reflexively consider it stupid and get even madder at myself for doing something stupid when I knew I was going to do something stupid and should have been looking out for it.

Anyway, I appreciate the advice.

[elus2]

before moving up review a good sample of the key hands where you've made/lost money or the types of hands that are still giving you a problem. analyze them so that you have a plan of action for common situations that will arise. you are definitely way over-rolled for 25nl at the moment but since your sample size is so small it would suck to jump into a new game if you may still need some refinements to your playing style.

[bkholdem]

Another option is to buy in short at the 50 table so your playing with the same amount at the table. If you get emotional take a break. It's hard to offer specific advice as I don't know the circumstances of you loosing your stacks at the 50 tables. One important aspect of successfully moving up is becoming comforable with the larger bet sizes being thrown around. You may find psychological comfort in buying in short and only risking 1/2 a stack.

[pokerjoker]

[ QUOTE ]
Another option is to buy in short at the 50 table so your playing with the same amount at the table. If you get emotional take a break. It's hard to offer specific advice as I don't know the circumstances of you loosing your stacks at the 50 tables. One important aspect of successfully moving up is becoming comforable with the larger bet sizes being thrown around. You may find psychological comfort in buying in short and only risking 1/2 a stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

i disagree.

Move to $50 NL just play ur game. At worst your winrate will go down 2-3 BB/100 till u get the hang of it. 10BB/100 is a completely safe number to move up and you already have the BR for a good 100 NL player.

[excession]

I wouldn't suggest he has roll to play $100 tables - you can easily swing $300 (or 1/5th of your $1500 roll) in one pot.

Yes if you are already a winning $100 NL player you might feel pretty safe and comfortable starting with $1500, but for someone working their way up I would suggest 20-30 buy-ins - it helps you stay sane when a downswing or big bad beat comes along.

Personally I work with a 40 buy in rule but that's just me being conseravtive as when I started learning NL I once had a 28 buy in downswing on the $25's..

[jkkkk]

Move up, none of this buyin short crap, buyin for the max, get deep and stack people left, right and centre

[yvesaint]

Move up, stop playing scared, re-evaluate at another 10k hands, minimum. Buy in full, play the same poker you've always been playing, there's not much of a jump from the 25s to the 50s. Solid, ABC poker will still win it for you, though you can start to be more aggressive (especially at 6-max), etc.

Don't go in with the mentality of 'I'm taking a shot, I expect to get stacked'. Go in thinking 'how can I play my best and maximise my EV at every spot'.

EDIT: And that bankroll is fine to start the 50s. You have a nice comfort level, something which I never really took into consideration (I was already trying the 100s at my first $1k ... gotta keep my compulsive gambler side in check).

[InfectGadget]

I am having a hard time believing this idea that 25Nl and 50NL are about the same. At 25NL i can bully the table easily. I steadily win small pots before i hit big and stack someone off.

At 50 NL i HAVE to double off to stay alive. This is regular at my sessions. I start out by losing blinds and what not, then suddenly i hit something and im a little up for the session. Then when i start the next day, i rinse and repeat. So far my bankroll has stood still cause of this, so its no biggie, but since ive almost logged 7k hands of this (third time im trying to move up, got 16k hands from the other tries slightly negative BB/100, cause i havent logged it all)

This sounds like a lot of whining, which it probably is, but im getting fairly desperate. I feel I play 25NL well, but 50NL is a different story.

VPIP: 18%
PFR: 6,5%

I think my problem lies in how i play post-flop and stealing. I dont think im aggressive enough when it comes to this play, though im able to spew out money anyways. How can i improve my game here? Hard to post specific hands to were i should steal, bluff at the pot, etc.