value bet?

joker122 · #1 09-03-2005, 11:30 PM

mp is aggressive.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, MP 3-bets, 3 folds, BB caps, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (12.40 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.70 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP checks.

River: (7.70 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero ?

ALL1N · #2 09-03-2005, 11:35 PM

Yes, value bet. I also think you should bet the flop.

joker122 · #3 09-03-2005, 11:40 PM

"I also think you should bet the flop. "

absolutely. i suck.

chio · #4 09-04-2005, 01:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
"I also think you should bet the flop. "

absolutely. i suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

what are some good reasons for betting the flop? it's one of the worst boards for AK, no better hand is ever folding, and you will get raised a large amt of the time here

#5 09-04-2005, 07:03 AM

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[ QUOTE ]
"I also think you should bet the flop. "

absolutely. i suck.

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what are some good reasons for betting the flop? it's one of the worst boards for AK, no better hand is ever folding, and you will get raised a large amt of the time here

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agreed, no redraws not anything but overcards(whoms outs you can likely cut to about 4 at most with this much preflop action), Aggro MP behind you to raise and confuse you for later streets, to big a pot to make happycappingBB fold anything at that point for 2bets cold. The quality of your hand is that of a 'weak draw' at best. Its far from safe to assume your hand could be best at this point or couldve been at all.

If MP would 3-bet you with eg (AA-99, AK,AQ) and BB would cap with eg (AA-JJ, and AK). Then it would mean you are in the best case scenario (where BB holds AK, and MP AQ or AK) tied. Thats a chance of about 17% for a tied pot!. Thats less than 9% equity since youll see a showdown about a 100% of the time. In all other cases you are behind or even way way behind. All in all it blows: my line checkcall you're four-outer on the flop, since you get odds and foremost BB will probably show his true colours on the turn without costing you a dime. If it goes check/check/bet/call to you on the turn you can pretty much safely put BB on AK and you're drawing approx 3:1 for a 2-way/3way tied pot so you can call down from there on. The quality of your hand improves from a 'gutshot'drawing hand(4 outs) on the flop to '1overcardflush' drawing hand(12 outs) on the turn for the cost of only one smallbet. Now ain't that grand?

#6 09-04-2005, 08:16 AM

Following through its pretty sweet to make an analysis of the potential extra value of putting in a bet here in the previous sketch i tried to make of the situation. After it gets checked through on the turn by MP, and BB checks on the river, lets say it is safe to assume BB is on AK, and MP on either AK(4) or AQ(8). Now its pretty clear you have to bet. And the bonuses don't lie for those who will.

Just an examplorary situation:

If you bet out on the river MP will call you 100% of the time, and BB will release his AK (hating to overcall on acehigh) 50% of the time.

you're gonna run 33,5% of the time into AQ(BB folding AK)-> brings you 8.7 in return of your bet

you're gonna run 16,5% of the time in AK(BB folding AK)->
brings you 3.85

You're gonna run 33,5% of the time in AQ(BB calling AK)->
brings you 3.85

You're gonna run 16,5% of the time in AK(BB calling AK)->
brings you 2,56

On Average betting brings you 5,26 as opposed to checking it through for about 3,2 something.

In this particular case, someone has to be flashing an ultra-passively playd pocketpair 66% of the time to make you break even for your bet. Of course you can find my variables as i chose them to be very optimistic, but it becomes clearcut i think that you have to sway these numbers to ultra-depressing proportions for your bet to become wrong.

Jgents · #7 09-04-2005, 12:21 AM

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I also think you should bet the flop.

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To put pressure on BB when MP re-raises behind you and sends 2 cold bets over to BB?

ALL1N · #8 09-04-2005, 12:31 AM

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I also think you should bet the flop.

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To put pressure on BB when MP re-raises behind you and sends 2 cold bets over to BB?

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Because if you've got the best hand (BB's check means there's a reasonable chance you do), the easiest way to get to showdown is by betting. I think you're probably behind if MP raises you on the flop, but bet-call-call is really a fine flop action for AK here.

Jgents · #9 09-04-2005, 12:59 AM

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Because if you've got the best hand (BB's check means there's a reasonable chance you do), the easiest way to get to showdown is by betting. I think you're probably behind if MP raises you on the flop, but bet-call-call is really a fine flop action for AK here.

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Gotcha.

My thinking when I read that "MP was aggressive" the thought of MP re-raising a Hero flop bet entered my mind immediately because an aggro player raising with overcards, PPs or nothing on flops like this are not too uncommon in my exp.

helpmeout · #10 09-03-2005, 11:40 PM

Dont think so.

You'll get shown a low PP here a lot of times.