Hmmm....am I toast?

[grb137]

7 Card Stud High ($20/$40), Ante $2, Bring-In $5 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 3: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___completes

4th Street - (2.70 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (2.35 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (4.35 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

River - (6.35 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___bets
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___[?????]

Total pot: 8.35 BB

No, you're not toast. I am.

[beta1607]

I think you are good here more then 1/7th of the time. In addition to bluffing he could be value betting a worse two pair

[anatta]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are good here more then 1/7th of the time. In addition to bluffing he could be value betting a worse two pair

[/ QUOTE ]


Converting odds to fractions and figuring out the percentage you need to right to make a call does not come natural to me. But here...

The pot has 6.35 bets in it. Then on 7th it is bet. That means its now 7.35. Doesn't that mean the pot is offering 7.35:1 and hero has to be good here 1 out of 8.35 times? Or about 12%?

I really am trying to get this simple concept down. I read in this weeks cardplayer from Jim Brier's article. The question was whether it was profitable to semibluff into a 5 big bet pot on the turn.

"There are five big bets in the pot and he can easily win more than 20 percent of the time when you consider that both opponents may fold and he can make the best hand at the river"

Shouldn't Jim be saying "more than 16.6% of the time" since its 5:1 on the bluff or 1/6?

[Andy B]

You are correct. It's easy to get that mixed up, though, which is why I usually say things like, "you will be good more than 10% of the time or whatever it needs to be."

Probably toast, but if you decide to check and call on the river, then you ought to go through with it. Too much chance of him betting on the basis that you only have the jacks and a busted draw to fold for one bet. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see either air or a boat.

Maybe raise on fifth.

My vote is for call however the only way of truly knowing what to do here depends upon proper observation of your opponent in previous hands. Not having that information makes it impossible to guess here. Nonetheless I could see him with a flush on the river in addition to a full house. A 3 flush is one of the few hands he could of had on 3rd street that would of been a reasonable call.

[Michael Emery]

I like it all the way through, grb. As for the river, I'd pay off most instances. I wouldnt be suprised to see it was just the one pair of open three's or a boat. One line I'm also willing to take here is to simply bet my two pair on the river against a non-tricky opponent (who will virtually always have me beat here if he raises). Two lower pair will often pay off here (you were in a steal position, could be on a busted str8 draw with one pair, etc.), but check behind when you check. If you know your opponent dosent have the balls to make a river raise here without having you beat then I like this line better than checking and calling. I think you're much more likely to get a call from two pair when you bet seventh than a bluff that you can snap off.

Mike Emery

[Jeffage]

Easy payoff on the end, you have a good chance of being best. I'd consider raising 5th, but I'm not married to it.

Jeff