SSH Flop Quiz #16 -- AJs (crossposted)

aK13 · #1 08-30-2005, 01:56 PM

You are in a loose and very aggressive game. You have A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the big blind. Four players, including the SB limp. You raise. Two limpers call, and then the button (limp)-reraises. The small blind calls and you cap. Everyone calls (20 small bets). The flop is K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], giving you a gutshot, and overcard, and a backdoor flush draw. The small blind checks, and you bet.

This bet is very unlikely to pick up the pot right now, And we're basically not folding out any hands that we would like to fold, so the only other reason to bet right now would be for value. How much value does our gutshot + BDFD have here against this field? Is it really enough to justify a bet here?

#2 08-30-2005, 02:01 PM

I don't think so. Especially as they say the game is aggressive. I personally want to a see the turn, and hopefully river as cheaply as possible.

MrWookie47 · #3 08-30-2005, 02:04 PM

There are 6 players in the pot. You have 4 outs for the gutshot, 1.5 for the BDF, and 1.5 for your A. That's 7 outs, surprisingly enough. Since the pot is gigantic (I'm not sure I agree with the preflop cap), you're going to be seeing the river (almost) no matter what. A 7 out draw is 2.59 against hitting from flop to river, so you can pump this bad boy for value if you get 3 callers.

Man, I think I may have been misplaying situations like this, but I also have to be careful about not turning into a maniac. This is a weird hand.

Edit: You have to assume that Button is a donk who's limp reraising trash a good percentage of the time. If the LRR means AA-QQ, then you only have 5.5 outs, plus you're toast if the board pairs. You'd need to be assured of getting everyone to come along in order to bet for value.

#4 08-30-2005, 02:08 PM

I think the preflop cap is a good given a couple of assumptions. 1) The game is very loose and people are limping in with anyting and everything 2) The LRR is from a donk that is much more likely to have J10s or small PP than hand that has you seriously dominated.

McGahee · #5 08-30-2005, 02:45 PM

In a loose aggressive game, I don't think the LRR has a monster - especially since he's on the button. Who was he trying to keep in by limping the first time around? Looks to me like he just said "F- it, reraise".

I like the PF raise and the cap. Still don't understand the flop bet, but maybe that explains how I'm a TAP.

aces_dad · #6 08-30-2005, 02:53 PM

The LRR from a button, as the third person in, is thought of by Sklansky in the same manner as you, not representing a large PP since there was already action but rather a strange play with decent holdings like mid PP or suited connectors.

For immediate value on your bet against 4 people (5 total), 8 outs is a thin value bet. Giving 4 to the gutshot, 1.5 to the BDFD and 1.5 to the A, you're not quite there. I seem to remember the book coming up with something like 8.5 outs or something slightly justifying the value bet. Is this hand exactly out of the book and are the outs counted differently?

McGahee · #7 08-30-2005, 03:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The LRR from a button, as the third person in, is thought of by Sklansky in the same manner as you, not representing a large PP since there was already action but rather a strange play with decent holdings like mid PP or suited connectors.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK lets face it - Sklansky HAS TO feel better knowing that I agree with him. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

numeri · #8 08-30-2005, 02:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There are 6 players in the pot. You have 4 outs for the gutshot, 1.5 for the BDF, and 1.5 for your A. That's 7 outs, surprisingly enough. Since the pot is gigantic (I'm not sure I agree with the preflop cap), you're going to be seeing the river (almost) no matter what. A 7 out draw is 2.59 against hitting from flop to river, so you can pump this bad boy for value if you get 3 callers.

[/ QUOTE ]
The only problem I have with this is that 1.5 of our outs (the BDFD) depend on a good turn card. Our equity changes significantly if a blank falls on the turn.

TeeVeeDude · #9 08-30-2005, 03:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The only problem I have with this is that 1.5 of our outs (the BDFD) depend on a good turn card. Our equity changes significantly if a blank falls on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

But that's why it's only 1.5 outs... if the turn is the wrong suit, those outs vanish but if the turn is the right suit then you suddenly have a LOT MORE outs.

adsman · #10 08-30-2005, 03:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Since the pot is gigantic (I'm not sure I agree with the preflop cap), you're going to be seeing the river (almost) no matter what.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that you capped preflop, thus making the pot gigantic, ensures that you have the odds to draw to the gutshot. This is called manilpulating the pot and it's a very important concept. It also means that your implied odds if you hit are enormous as everyone who's still in will be paying you off.

For an excellent example of this concept check out Barron vangortooth's article in the september issue of the 2+2 magazine.

On the subject of betting the flop, this is an example of real aggressive play. Betting into a large field with a gutshot, an overcard and a BDFD. You're calling a bet here everytime. So if you're going to call, it's better to bet. And if you do hit your hand nobody is going to put you on it.