What do you do when you are about to make the leap and BOOM?

[LImitPlayer]

Kinda curious what others have done in this situation, or what they would do if this happened to them.

I'm pluggin away at 5-10 SH close to hitting my 100K hand mark and getting ready to move up to the 10-20 SH.

I then proceed to hit my nastiest, most brutal downsing ever, 256 BB. This drops my BB/100 almost .5 points and then puts me under the 2 BB/100 mark.

I told myself I wouldn't move up in limits until I hit 100K hands at each level and had at least A 2BB+/100 winrate for each level. Bankroll is not an issue for moving up.

Do I continue to fight my way out of the downsing at the 5-10 or jump to the 10-20?

Do I need to re-evaluate my game as I am no longer a 2BB/100 winner? Or do I just go the "this is just varience
routine and in another 20K hands I will be back over 2BB/100 hands so just move on?"

I guess my main concern is that I'm going to dig my way out of this one and hit another one in the near future lowering my winrate even further.

At what point do you say I am a proven winner at this level and just move on in the SH games? Since downswings are longer and much nastier than in full ring do I need to play a lot more hands then I would compared to a 10 handed game?

I have read posts from players who say they have has 20k hand breakeven stretches. Does this kind of varience require you to play more hands to get a resonable idea of your winrate?

I understand that it would take millions of hands to determine your true winrate but what is the standard or best guess as to the # of hads played in SH games to determine if you are beating the game?

I am resonably new to SH, before I was playing full ring games on autopilot multitabling.

[TheMetetron]

Move up when you are ready. It's as simple as that.

[billyjex]

who cares what your bb/100 is. 1.8 or 2.2, you are beating the game very healthy and should move up if your bankroll is fine.

i am 1.3 over 80k hands and have pretty much moved up. winrates are overrated. if you can beat 5/10 you can beat 10/20.

[TheMetetron]

Actually, I would be a little concerned about only beating $5/10 for 1.3 and attempting to jump up to $10/20, but that's just me.

[billyjex]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, I would be a little concerned about only beating $5/10 for 1.3 and attempting to jump up to $10/20, but that's just me.

[/ QUOTE ]

and i'm sure you had a killer winrate when you moved up.

wtf do you want me to do, play a shitload more hands to get that magical number up? i have some tilt issues, and i also played the last 30k hands with no notes as well to get better at reads (ok, i was really lazy after pokeredge ate it and didn't want to datamine.)

to be honest.. i feel i play fine against aggressive opponents. one of my biggest weaknesses is paying off loose passives and not value betting enough. i think i'm pretty good at inducing and picking off bluffs, which i feel become more important at 10/20.

[helpmeout]

[ QUOTE ]
i am 1.3 over 80k hands and have pretty much moved up. winrates are overrated. if you can beat 5/10 you can beat 10/20.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yuck

If you can beat 5/10 for well over 2bb/100 you should be ok at 10/20. It doesnt mean you will beat it. 10/20 is a tougher and more frustrating game.

1.3BB/100 however is fairly weak I would not move up to 10/20 with this winrate. You may just be running good at 10/20 if you think it is easy.

As for the original poster I'd say wait until you have recovered from your downswing, its no fun moving up and losing double what you are use to.

When you do move up just take it easy play few tables with bad players so you get your confidence up. Starting a new limit with a solid win and winrate is fairly important for your confidence.

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
if you can beat 5/10 you can beat 10/20.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sadly, this has not been my experience.

5/10:



10/20:



I am continually fascinated and frustrated by this.

I guess my point (to the OP) is a lot of people who were 1.5BB/100 winners at 5/10 have gone on to 10/20 and been successful. Others who were 2.5BB+/100 at 5/10 have not done well at 10/20. There's a ton of variance in poker, and winrates are never accurate. You shouldn't use win rate as your only guide when deciding to move up.

[MarkD]

Holy crap. You never had a real downswing over 100k - that's insane.

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
Holy crap. You never had a real downswing over 100k - that's insane.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I saved them all up for 10/20.

Actually this isn't true. There are a few in there that are close to 200BB and at least one 10k hand breakeven stretch.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
if you can beat 5/10 you can beat 10/20.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is true either. how many hands have you played at 10/20? It's dangerous to bandy around stuff without a significant sample size.

Krishan