River play (crossposted)

[Entity]

Crossposted with a micro thread. Don't read there before reading here if you can help it -- the threads are different. Please vote before responding (so as to not read before voting), but respond with your reasoning.

UTG+1 is an ok, straightforward, not tricky player. He doesn't raise garbage-ish hands preflop. He's fairly passive postflop.

Party Poker 15-30 (8-handed)
converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7.66 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4.83 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: (6.83 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero...

[Paxosmotic]

I think we've got a small bit of fold equity against all pocket pairs and AK, and can expect to get called quite a few times with AQ or AJ, so this is a bet.

[Argus]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
I think we've got a small bit of fold equity against all pocket pairs and AK, and can expect to get called quite a few times with AQ or AJ, so this is a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
How can you hope that the better hands in villain's range will fold but the worse hands will call? I disagree with those that voted to bet. You have a hand with some showdown value, but not enough that you are a favourite when called. Most good players would dump AQ or AJ on the turn, knowing they are dogs to your 3-betting range in this mid-sized pot. I expect villain to showdown a pocket pair smaller than queens and call your river bet every time.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think we've got a small bit of fold equity against all pocket pairs and AK, and can expect to get called quite a few times with AQ or AJ, so this is a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
How can you hope that the better hands in villain's range will fold but the worse hands will call? I disagree with those that voted to bet. You have a hand with some showdown value, but not enough that you are a favourite when called. Most good players would dump AQ or AJ on the turn, knowing they are dogs to your 3-betting range in this mid-sized pot. I expect villain to showdown a pocket pair smaller than queens and call your river bet every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you that folding a better hand is a very slim possibility, but I think you underestimate both how often this guy will have and fold AK, and how often he'll have and call w/ AQ. (Though I think the chances of the former are greater than the chances of the latter.)

[neuroman]

Check. As said by others, the probability of him have a middle pocket pair seems good, and he's certainly calling you down with that. I'm not sure why lots of people assume he might call with AQ, AJ, but fold an AK. He sounds like the kind of player that will call down with AK in this spot.

If I bet here and get called, I expect to see AK or pockets and either split or lose the pot.

My first post, and I'm a newbie to serious poker thought, so bear this in mind. As someone who has worked/is working to overcome similar tight/weak tendencies, I think I'm closer to UTG+1/Villain's mindset than some of the others.

That said:

1) A passive-but-reasonably-thinking player in this spot will have a read on how -you- play, too. And you would be put on A-K, A-Q, A-J or a middle pocket pair or higher; this assumes that UTG+1 also knows how you are likely to react to his/her pre-flop raise, probably showing at least some degree of respect for it.

2) Even a passive player would be likely as not to cap pre-flop w/ AK (usually), QQ or JJ (again usually) against a player who fits into the picture of you that I believe he/she would create, and would -probably- put you on slick as the likeliest of hands. This leaves A-K (sometimes) A-Q, A-J(probably suited!) and 9-9 as the four most likely opposing hands; the 8-8 and smaller pairs are likelier limp-in hands from UTG+1.

2) 10-10 (and maybe J-J) are possible hands pre-flop, but are eliminated post-flop if they aren't bet by the river. J-J would be bet out by a thinking/passive player on the river (if not the turn), and if this player hit quads you -might- get slowplayed, then check-raised on the river, if you've shown the propensity to push your value bets. 10-10 quads hasn't been mentioned much here, but it's a thin possibility.

3) Similarly, with you likely having been put on A-K or a pair yourself, this player will have folded A-J (certainly) and A-Q (probably) on the turn, unless there's more chasing/calling-station tendency here than we're led to believe. If I were there, I'd be thinking my high cards were dominated and I was on a mighty thin draw.

4) So, the only hands likely to have been checked into you are some occurrences of A-K, a smidge of A-Q, the miracle 10-10, and, of course, 9-9. And I'd bet that's what this player will show. I say check, traditional passivist or not; those that prefer betting here are trying to force that player's actions into their mindset, not the other way around.

So, first post complete, tell me where I'm wrong!

[lil']

You can bet for value here.

(I disagree that a better hand is folding here, though. You might get another A-K to fold, but a better hand didn't come this far to fold the river for one bet.)

I think that we can reduce the likelihood that a bunch of pair hands are around here. AA, KK, and to a lesser degree QQ would have made a bit more noise here. TT seems outs. 99 and 88 might not have raised in the first place here.

By reducing the percentage of villain's range taken up by pairs in such a fashion, we realize that AK is going to take up a huge percentage of villain's range.

The value of folding another AK here makes the river bet valuable in my opinion, particularly against a passive opponent who would not call it down.

[cold_cash]

Bet so that you might avoid the chop.

Also, I don't know about you but I think many players will call the flop and turn hoping you're betting overcards, but when you bet the river they think, "Well, he probably wouldn't bet all 3 streets w/ overcards, so he must really have it."

Now, I have my doubts that you can get this guy to lay down a hand like 99 (unlikely), or JJ (never), but when you add in the possiblity that he folds another AK or calls w/ AQ I think it's a bet.

[meep_42]

Check.

PPs aren't folding here, ever. The only hand that folds that you want to fold is another AK. You get a call from AQ and maybe AJ.

Based on the overcard possibilities alone, it's a very close bet, but when you figure PPs that call I don't think this is a good value bet.

-d