Gamble or not? Live 1/2, deepstacks, good opponents

PokerFink · #1 08-24-2005, 07:28 PM

Turning Stone, 1/2 200max, 10-handed. EP is a thinking LAG who has around 400. He is not afraid to get his chips in there and take chances. SB is a thinking TAG player who is very good, probably better than I am. He has about a little under 300. I am in CO-1 and I have them both covered.

My table image is important. I have been playing with these players for a few hours, and they both know I am VERY tight. I rarely play pots, almost never smooth call a preflop raise, and I don't think I had lost a showdown all day (besides limped pots that check through). I don't know whether they respect my play or just think I've been getting good cards.

EP makes an opening raise to 15, which is standard. Folded to me, I find aces and decide to get frisky, so I smooth call. Folded to the SB who re-raises to 50. I am very confident that he has exactly KK , with a very slim chance of AA or QQ/AK. Knowing how he plays, I think he would be more inclined to call and take a flop OOP with AK or QQ, especially with me in the pot. And obviously, the odds of him having AA are slim, so I'm almost certain he has KK.

But here is where it gets interesting. The BB folds and it is back to the EP raiser, who goes into the tank. He has to be thinking he has a chance of stacking atleast one (if not both!) of us if he hits the right flop. He can have pretty much anything: a couple high cards, connectors (suited or not), any pair, or something goofy.

If EP calls the 50, the pot is going to be 150 once I match the re-raise. EP will have about 350 left, SB about 240. I know that if I smoothcall the raise, I'm telling them outload that I have queens or better.

If a king flops I will have no trouble getting away from the hand, but there is no way I'm going to know whether EP outflops me or not. EP is also more than capable of trying to bluff me out of the pot.

But here's the biggest problem. I am certain that if I push all-in, SB will muck his kings. I'm in a glorious spot with AA vs KK, and I don't want to lose the opportunity to stack SB.

So do I smoothcall the fifty, take the flop three-handed and go to battle, or do I move in and just take the 150 thats in the pot.

Malachii · #2 08-24-2005, 07:33 PM

Hey Fink,

Haven't seen much of you lately. It's good that you're posting again. I'd make the conservative play here and push.

PokerFink · #3 08-24-2005, 07:37 PM

This hand came up during my five day stay at Turning Stone in July. Since that trip I haven't really played any poker at all since I decided to stop playing online. As such, I haven't been on 2+2.

meleader2 · #4 08-25-2005, 03:03 AM

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This hand came up during my five day stay at Turning Stone in July. Since that trip I haven't really played any poker at all since I decided to stop playing online. As such, I haven't been on 2+2.

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i'm in the same boat as you. i'll PM you on my thoughts...

djoyce003 · #5 08-24-2005, 07:33 PM

take the 150 now. That's a very nice pot for not seeing a flop.

wdeadwyler · #6 08-24-2005, 07:49 PM

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take the 150 now. That's a very nice pot for not seeing a flop.

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Archetype · #7 08-24-2005, 07:49 PM

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take the 150 now. That's a very nice pot for not seeing a flop.

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Completely agree. As well, you could get called with KK or QQ, possibly AK, if they put you on a steal. Cant get your money in in a better situation.

PokerFink · #8 08-24-2005, 07:52 PM

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As well, you could get called with KK or QQ, possibly AK, if they put you on a steal. Cant get your money in in a better situation.

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Trust me, these players were not calling my push with anything less than aces. Against weaker competition that might give me a call I would push this 100% of the time.

elus2 · #9 08-24-2005, 08:11 PM

what will sb put you on if you smooth call? how will you interpret a call/raise by EP after sb leads a dry or a draw-heavy flop? will sb allow himself to get stacked postflop with unimproved KK?

PokerFink · #10 08-24-2005, 08:39 PM

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what will sb put you on if you smooth call?

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QQ-AA.

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how will you interpret a call/raise by EP after sb leads a dry or a draw-heavy flop?

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It's very flop dependent. It would be hard to determine, since he would be capable of both raising in an effort to stack us, and raising on a bluff or semibluff.

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will sb allow himself to get stacked postflop with unimproved KK?

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Yes, but only if I smoothcall. If I raise him he is going to get away from his kings.