hand reading exercise

eviljeff · #1 08-24-2005, 02:15 PM

villain is 26/7.7/1.8 (so semi-loose and aggressive) and can be tricky

PokerRoom 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop:
4 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, 2 folds, eviljeff 3-bets, MP1 caps, MP2 folds.

Flop: (8 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
eviljeff checks, MP1 bets, eviljeff calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
eviljeff checks, MP1 checks.

River: (4.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
eviljeff bets, MP1 folds.

I suggest you try to answer the following questions before looking at other responses:

1) what is a reasonable range of hands for me after I 3bet pf?
2) what is a reasonable range of hands for villain after he caps pf?
3) what is my range of hands after I c/c the flop?
hints in white: what is it appropriate to slowplay here? am I wa/wb? what am I getting odds to chase with?
4) what is my final range of hands?
5) what is villain's final hand? (you should be able to narrow it to one, possibly two hands)

MrWookie47 · #2 08-24-2005, 02:22 PM

It's not too late to edit your post and, you know, include all the action. Also, previewing your posts is a good thing.

Henke · #3 08-24-2005, 02:23 PM

nm

eviljeff · #4 08-24-2005, 02:32 PM

all better now.

note: this post has been previewed and approved by eviljeff

jrz1972 · #5 08-24-2005, 02:33 PM

1. Probably AKs, AKo, AA-TT. Maybe AQs or 99.

2. AKs, AA-JJ. Maybe AKo.

3. AQ or QQ. Maybe AK.

4. AK-AQ.

5. QQ or JJ.

numeri · #6 08-24-2005, 02:36 PM

1) what is a reasonable range of hands for me after I 3bet pf?

AA-99, AKs/o, AQs, AJs, KQs

2) what is a reasonable range of hands for villain after he caps pf?

AA-JJ, AKs

3) what is my range of hands after I c/c the flop?

AA, KK, AK, AQ

4) what is my final range of hands?

AQ. Anything else, I think you played it poorly. (You should have bet the turn with anything stronger.

5) what is villain's final hand? (you should be able to narrow it to one, possibly two hands)

QQ or JJ

eviljeff · #7 08-24-2005, 03:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]

4) what is my final range of hands?

AQ. Anything else, I think you played it poorly. (You should have bet the turn with anything stronger.

[/ QUOTE ]

what about something weaker like K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]? you included this in my pf 3bet range.
also, why would I want to bet AK into any of villain's hands (AA-JJ, AK)?

numeri · #8 08-24-2005, 03:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

4) what is my final range of hands?

AQ. Anything else, I think you played it poorly. (You should have bet the turn with anything stronger.

[/ QUOTE ]

what about something weaker like K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]? you included this in my pf 3bet range.
also, why would I want to bet AK into any of villain's hands (AA-JJ, AK)?

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought about KQs, but not long enough! KQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is an option as well. How many outs do you give yourself (theoretically) on the flop with KQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

If you have specifically AK, you are definitely either WA or WB. However, they are not equally likely. On the flop, villain could have:

AA - 1 way
KK - 3 ways
QQ - 6 ways
JJ - 6 ways
AK - 1 way

So if you have specifically AK, this is not a WA/WB line. You are way ahead of 12 hands, way behind 4, and split with one. Since you're ahead of so many hands that might call the bet, you don't want to give them the free card. Either QQ or JJ would also be tempted to call a turn bet with GSD.

eviljeff · #9 08-24-2005, 04:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How many outs do you give yourself (theoretically) on the flop with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

[/ QUOTE ]

this calculation is way too difficult for me to do at game speed (mostly since his likelihood of having various hands changes drastically when I hit one of my K or Q "outs")

I think I'd auto-c/c this flop with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] because my mind is thinking (big pot + pair + bdfd).

as far as outs: 1.5 bdfd + 2Ks + 3Qs = 6.5 outs
obviously the K/Q outs need to be discounted a lot. on the fly I'd prob. estimate 4 outs.

if anyone cares to do the actual calculation I would love to see it.

DavidC · #10 08-24-2005, 04:28 PM

How about 3.5 + 0.5% =~ 3.5 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

backdoor 90:1 straight, plus a bdf (1 out), plus dep on whether or not the guy has AK/AQ 3 outs to 2 outs. You could also be drawing dead to your flush/straight.

Not a lot... I don't know... I'd be willing to put that hand down, or start bluffing by checkraising the turn, etc. But not calling down for pot odds.

--Dave.