Totally blew this one (L08)

[Sean D]

Well this is probably one of the worst hands I've ever played. I was lost the entire hand, and did not know what to do. Obviously I should have found a fold somewhere, but not sure where. Maybe the river? The donkbets by the BB killed me, and basically trapped me in the hand. I would have gladly folded any street having to call two cold, but I got sucked in. Comments on all streets appreciated.

Party Poker (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero calls, <font color="red">UTG+2 raises</font>, BB calls, Hero calls

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG+2 bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="red">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="red">UTG+2 raises</font>, BB calls, Hero calls

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="red">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="red">UTG+2 raises</font>, BB calls, Hero calls

[anatta]

Yeah, the river is pretty bad. BB played the river great, betting out and just calling the raise to trap you for an extra bet. But you have a clear fold to the first river bet. BB has the high here it sure appears and bottom set isnt gonna cut it.

I can't fault your turn play. You have nut low draw, and the extra 2 means a bit less likely the player behind you has A2. If you knew the LP was going to raise then okay, fold. But since it should be clear to him that the BB has the str8, its hard to foresee that the LP is going to raise turn still drawing to a low (2nd nut low probably at that, doubtful he had A23). Yet raise he did, but its just one more back so you can't fold.

Assuming BB has the str8, did he play the turn well? Betting out is fine, but then he just called. Should he have three-bet if he had the nut str8, no real low draw? That is my question back to you and anyone else.

[Sean D]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming BB has the str8, did he play the turn well? Betting out is fine, but then he just called. Should he have three-bet if he had the nut str8, no real low draw? That is my question back to you and anyone else.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aside from preflop, I think BB played the hand okay. He had the sucker end of the straight on the turn. His bet out on the turn was good, but when UTG+2 raises, BB isn't sure about his hand. Maybe UTG+2 had raised with a high wrap. But if he thought he was beat for high, I don't understand the donkbet on the river.

I thought UTG+2's turn raise was horrible. He got lucky IMO.

Fold the turn, you're playing for half at best.

[gergery]

Fold the flop.

You’ll make nut low on the river ~50% of the time. Take a simple example and say all of you put in 1 bet on the flop, turn, river. Then the pot is 11BB at the river, and you’ve put in 2.5BB. so you’ll win 5.5BB minus your 2.5BB or a profit of 3BB for which you risk 2.5BB. So playing on is marginally EV+. Except that you’ll get quartered ~25% of the time, which makes it EV-.

Of course sometimes you’ll make your A2 and get to jam when both opponents are going high. But then sometimes one of them will have A2 and you jam and get quartered. Or you jam and then get counterfeited.

If you have almost no chance to win high, then don’t DRAW for half a small pot.

-g

[Sean D]

Thanks for the comments. I know I should have folded somewhere, anywhere. Results:

UTG+2 shows 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
BB shows 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I think UTG+2 played the hand badly on the turn, as he was drawing dead for high, and two outs for low. BB's preflop call was also marginal. Oh well, more hand posts to come later. Thanks.

[Sean D]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I thought the flop call was okay. I was calling one bet, closing the action, getting ~5:1. I really think I should have folded for the first bet on the turn. I just wasn't expecting a raise behind me.

[GooperMC]

I would call the flop and maybe fold the turn.

On the flop he is getting 9:1 which I think is easily enough to call even for only 1/2 the pot. On the turn he is getting 6:1 which I think is close but he isn't closing the betting so I would fold.

[ QUOTE ]
for which you risk 2.5BB

[/ QUOTE ]
If he decides to call the flop and turn he is actually only risking 1.5BB because he won't call a river bet if he misses everything.

Lets expand your analysis for just a call on the flop and fold if he misses. For easy math I will go with your assumption that everyone puts 1 bet in on every round.
15/45 He hits and eventually wins 3BB.
30/45 He misses and loses -.5BB.
EV = (.33)(3)+(.67)(-.5) = .66

Now that doesn’t allow for him getting counterfeit or him getting 1/4ed but I don’t think it will bring down the result enough to make the call –EV.

For the turn:
15/44 He hits and eventually wins 3BB
29/44 He misses and loses -1BB
EV = (.34)(3)+(.66)(-1) = .33

Add in counterfeit + 1/4ing + not closing the betting and I think it is close but folding could be correct here.

Wow greg, I haven't disagreed with you in a while.

[gergery]

Hmm, after thinking it over a bit, I think the flop call is probably more correct, but I do think its very close -- closely than your number shows. I've been running bad in LO8 recently [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[GooperMC]

[ QUOTE ]
Now that doesn’t allow for him getting counterfeit or him getting 1/4ed but I don’t think it will bring down the result enough to make the call –EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree that it is closer then my numbers said but as you said I think that a call is still +EV.