lay this down on the turn?

[steveyz]

Party 10-handed

UTG (25/15/2.6) raises, Hero 3-bets with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], EP (26/15/1.16) caps, 3 folds, CO (20/9/1.8] calls, 3 folds, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG bets, Hero raises, EP calls, CO calls, UTG calls.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG checks, Hero bets, EP folds, CO raises, UTG folds, Hero ???

15.5 BBs at this point.

If this is a call, what's your plan for the river if it is a

(a) [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
(b) non-[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8
(c) T

[steveyz]

Bump.

[mike l.]

pot is too big you need to call, and call the river as well. just go into check call mode regardless of what comes.

[DpR]

tough spot. With smaller pot you could fold perhaps. I think I just call down. I do not think a set is likely so no point betting any river cards.

[elindauer]

I'm going to see a showdown every time. I'm inclined to check-raise any non-spade 8 or T, but would probably bet myself if the river was a spade.

Good luck.
Eric

[DeezNutz3]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to see a showdown every time. I'm inclined to check-raise any non-spade 8 or T, but would probably bet myself if the river was a spade.

Good luck.
Eric


[/ QUOTE ]

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to see a showdown every time. I'm inclined to check-raise any non-spade 8 or T, but would probably bet myself if the river was a spade.

Good luck.
Eric


[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't AK spades the most likely hand for villian here? or at worst a PP bigger than 10 with a spade? This guy has solid stats and cold called 4 bets pre flop. Doesn't that almost have to be AA, KK, QQ, AKs?

Pot is very big so I am not giving it up for one bet, but I am definitely not betting or raising at any point.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't AK spades the most likely hand for villian here? or at worst a PP bigger than 10 with a spade? This guy has solid stats and cold called 4 bets pre flop. Doesn't that almost have to be AA, KK, QQ, AKs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is his range of hands, but almost half of these hands do not have a spade in them. True, he raised the turn, so it's a little more likely that he does have a spade. However, AA and KK with no spades both likely believe they are ahead on the turn and want to charge a spade draw the maximum.

There's only 1 way he can have AKs, but MANY ways he can have an overpair. A rivered straight or set is very likely to be good. A rivered spade isn't good as often as we'd like, but he'll call with a lot more hands than he'll bet, and is unlikely to bluff raise since his hand will almost certainly have some showdown value. Betting and getting called as an underdog is better than checking and calling as an even bigger underdog.

Good luck.
Eric

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't AK spades the most likely hand for villian here? or at worst a PP bigger than 10 with a spade? This guy has solid stats and cold called 4 bets pre flop. Doesn't that almost have to be AA, KK, QQ, AKs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is his range of hands, but almost half of these hands do not have a spade in them. True, he raised the turn, so it's a little more likely that he does have a spade. However, AA and KK with no spades both likely believe they are ahead on the turn and want to charge a spade draw the maximum.

There's only 1 way he can have AKs, but MANY ways he can have an overpair. A rivered straight or set is very likely to be good. A rivered spade isn't good as often as we'd like, but he'll call with a lot more hands than he'll bet, and is unlikely to bluff raise since his hand will almost certainly have some showdown value. Betting and getting called as an underdog is better than checking and calling as an even bigger underdog.

Good luck.
Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

So why are you betting a spade again?

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't AK spades the most likely hand for villian here? or at worst a PP bigger than 10 with a spade? This guy has solid stats and cold called 4 bets pre flop. Doesn't that almost have to be AA, KK, QQ, AKs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is his range of hands, but almost half of these hands do not have a spade in them. True, he raised the turn, so it's a little more likely that he does have a spade. However, AA and KK with no spades both likely believe they are ahead on the turn and want to charge a spade draw the maximum.

There's only 1 way he can have AKs, but MANY ways he can have an overpair. A rivered straight or set is very likely to be good. A rivered spade isn't good as often as we'd like, but he'll call with a lot more hands than he'll bet, and is unlikely to bluff raise since his hand will almost certainly have some showdown value. Betting and getting called as an underdog is better than checking and calling as an even bigger underdog.

Good luck.
Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

So why are you betting a spade again?

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Do you just want me to retype what I already wrote? A lot of hands he can have don't have a spade. I think he'll call with these but not bet them. I don't think expect to be raised by anything less than the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I'm not ready to check-fold a flush, so betting and getting called as an underdog is... well, read it again.

good luck.
eric