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#1
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Hypothetical Freeroll
A no-limit game. You hold 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the button. The flop comes: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. An opponent goes all-in in front of you and accidentally shows 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. In what situations would you call her bet? In what situations would you not?
Mathematical answer preferred. Feel free to generate pre-flop action that would justify either response. |
#2
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Re: Hypothetical Freeroll
how much of your stack is commited before the all in?
if there is not much, it is game theory question your results are either losing your stack 1/3 of the time or a tie 2/3 of the time.. if most of your stack is in.. then u might as well call.. |
#3
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Re: Hypothetical Freeroll
[ QUOTE ]
if most of your stack is in.. then u might as well call.. [/ QUOTE ] You are definately behind here; I'd like to know exactly how much. i.e. What pot odds do you need to call this bet? |
#4
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Re: Hypothetical Freeroll
fair enough.
im interested in finding out the method of calculation since almost every decision here is -ev. seems to me ( my common sense is warped tho) |
#5
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Re: Hypothetical Freeroll
You'd need about 2.5to1 pot odds to call.
Example. The pot is $15 he goes all in for $10. Pot=$25; costs you $10 to call. He is about 37% to catch his flush. Out of 100 hands: 37 times you will lose your $10. -$370 Out of 100 hands: 63 times you will win $17.50 from the split pot. $1102.50 Dividing $1102.50 by 100 will give us our average loss or gain after each hand. $1102.50/100=$11.03. Net gain of $1.03 per hand. +EV If however, you were only getting 2to1 odds you would lose money. Example: The pot is $10 and he goes all in for $10. Pot=$20; costs you $10 to call. He is about 37% to catch his flush. Out of 100 hands 37 times you will lose $10. -$370 Out of 100 hands 63 times you will win $15 from the split pot. $945 Dividing $945 by 100 will give us our average loss or gain after each hand. $945/100=$9.45. Net loss of $0.55 per hand. -EV |
#6
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Re: Hypothetical Freeroll
The 2.14:1 figure is based on losing 360/990 times (~36.3%) and winning 630/990 times (~63.6%).
Well to get the figure, we divide 15/7 = ~2.14, but we'll leave it as 15/7 for the math. Now assuming it calls us $10 to call into a pot of size 15/7 * 10 = 150/7, there will then be 150/7 + 10, or 150/7 + 70/7, or $220/7 in the pot. We will win half of this 630 times over 990 hands. So we win $110/7 * 630 over 990 hands. The average win per hand will therefore be ($110/7 * 630) / 990. This is calculated easily. 110/990 * 630/7 = 1/9 * 90 = $10 average win. break even. |
#7
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Re: Hypothetical Freeroll
[ QUOTE ]
The 2.14:1 figure is based on losing 360/990 times (~36.3%) and winning 630/990 times (~63.6%). Well to get the figure, we divide 15/7 = ~2.14, but we'll leave it as 15/7 for the math. Now assuming it calls us $10 to call into a pot of size 15/7 * 10 = 150/7, there will then be 150/7 + 10, or 150/7 + 70/7, or $220/7 in the pot. We will win half of this 630 times over 990 hands. So we win $110/7 * 630 over 990 hands. The average win per hand will therefore be ($110/7 * 630) / 990. This is calculated easily. 110/990 * 630/7 = 1/9 * 90 = $10 average win. break even. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. Anything over 2.14to1 odds will be +EV or about 2.5to1 odds to keep it simple. |
#8
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Re: Hypothetical Freeroll
Assume you can ignore other players, if there's anyone behind you seeing the straight with flush draw will almost certainly cause them to drop without a pair on the board.
Out of the 990 possible boards, 630 tie and 360 lose for you. If there is P is the pot before your opponent's raise, and the smaller of your two stacks is S, by calling you win P/2 630 times and lose S 360 times. That's breakeven if S is 7/8 of P. Any larger bet than that and you should fold. In practice, one of you will have to be shortstacked to make this a good bet, unless there was really vigorous preflop action. |
#9
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Re: Hypothetical Freeroll
Would that be 1.875:1 pot odds that you need to "draw" to your split?
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#10
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Re: Hypothetical Freeroll
That's a little tricky to define. Normally, pot odds are defined for winning the pot. But I'd state it as 1.875:0.875, or 15:7 instead. You need $15 in the pot before you bet for every $7 you put up, meaning $8 in the pot before your opponent bets, to make this breakeven EV.
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