Bubble hand, 99

djj6835 · #1 08-22-2005, 12:54 AM

What do you do here with the uber short-stack.

#Game No : 2576416568
***** Hand History for Game 2576416568 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:15053616 Level:9 Blinds(250/500) - Monday, August 22, 00:43:56 EDT 2005
Table Table 14917 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 6: Hero ( $1870 )
Seat 5: UTG ( $30 )
Seat 7: SB ( $3220 )
Seat 9: BB ( $2880 )
Trny:15053616 Level:9
Blinds(250/500)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 9d 9h ]
UTG folds.
Hero ???

HighestCard · #2 08-22-2005, 12:57 AM

Grit your teeth and push. Blinds are too huge to dictate any other move, epically with the BB comming up. If you win your in a great position to get 2nd. If you lose, make another post on here about bad beats... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

bigt439 · #3 08-22-2005, 01:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Grit your teeth and push. Blinds are too huge to dictate any other move, epically with the BB comming up. If you win your in a great position to get 2nd. If you lose, make another post on here about bad beats... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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This is just wrong. A push is wrong and it is impossible to argue otherwise. Fold.

HighestCard · #4 08-22-2005, 01:05 AM

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This is just wrong. A push is wrong and it is impossible to argue otherwise. Fold.

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Somebody correct my thinking here because I cant see why this is such an easy fold. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

bigt439 · #5 08-22-2005, 01:18 AM

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This is just wrong. A push is wrong and it is impossible to argue otherwise. Fold.

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Somebody correct my thinking here because I cant see why this is such an easy fold. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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You are virtually guaranteed to make the money. If you went on post and fold you would make the money something like 99.5% of the time... or something. When you push and lose you don't make the money. When you push and win you have not gained nearly enough $EV to warrant pushing. Risk does not equal reward and it's not even remotely close.

HighestCard · #6 08-22-2005, 01:29 AM

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You are virtually guaranteed to make the money. If you went on post and fold you would make the money something like 99.5% of the time... or something. When you push and lose you don't make the money. When you push and win you have not gained nearly enough $EV to warrant pushing. Risk does not equal reward and it's not even remotely close.

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Obviously your gaurenteed 3rd if you fold here, but I wish I could do ICM calculations to figure out if you double up your chances of winning 1st, and see if they outweigh folding here. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

mlagoo · #7 08-22-2005, 12:57 AM

A push here is another +EV, -cash EV situation. This is a definite fold for me everytime.

HighestCard · #8 08-22-2005, 01:03 AM

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This is a definite fold for me everytime.

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I dont think its that easy... Like I said in my first post the blinds are going to kill your stack when they come around.
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A push here is another +EV, -cash EV situation.

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I dont think this is a clear -$EV situation, but go get somebody like eastbay to flame me on this.

djj6835 · #9 08-22-2005, 01:06 AM

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dont think its that easy... Like I said in my first post the blinds are going to kill your stack when they come around.

Quote:

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Yeah but the blinds are gonna kill the guy with 30 chips a whole lot more, and sooner. I folded but I'm not sure if this is being too weak tight here or not.

I was expecting to get a lot of "play for first" comments but I thought this was one of those secenarios where you have to make the final three first before you can win.

mlagoo · #10 08-22-2005, 01:11 AM

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dont think its that easy... Like I said in my first post the blinds are going to kill your stack when they come around.

Quote:

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Yeah but the blinds are gonna kill the guy with 30 chips a whole lot more, and sooner. I folded but I'm not sure if this is being too weak tight here or not.

I was expecting to get a lot of "play for first" comments but I thought this was one of those secenarios where you have to make the final three first before you can win.

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It's not really a matter of that -- it's just.. You are basically a lock (I would venture a guess of 95% or better) to get third or better. The big stacks are also a lock to get third or better, EVEN IF THEY CALL YOU.

I think that's the important thing. Neither of the stacks in the blinds are risking going out on the bubble by calling you here. They can call knowing that even if they lose, they are still almost certain to make the money.

If the short stack wasn't AS SHORT, it would be closer, but I can't imagine putting my chips at risk here. Playing for first is one thing -- playing for fourth is another.