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#1
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Middling Football games...
How big a difference in spread do you need before going for a middle is profitable?
Ken |
#2
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Re: Middling Football games...
It depends where the line is. 1 point is GREAT if the line is over and under 3. But the larger the number the more points you need.
I would not even do it if it was not close to 3. |
#3
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Re: Middling Football games...
Depends on which numbers you are middling. Football outcomes follow discrete distributions because of the scoring rules. Some numbers occur way more often than others. Get a good NFL database and calculate the percentages for each number for sides and totals (or look it up in a book or table if you don't mind old data). Then you can calculate precisely the EV of any middle based upon how often the numbers occur.
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#4
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Re: Middling Football games...
[ QUOTE ]
... Get a good NFL database ... [/ QUOTE ] Any hints on where? |
#5
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Re: Middling Football games...
This MIGHT help
The below chart has the Line and the % of the time the score HITS the line <ul type="square"> 1 3.1 2 4.0 3 16.8 4 7.0 5 2.7 6 5.9 7 6.9 8 2.3 9 1.8 10 5.9 11 3.4 12 1.8 13 3.3 14 4.5 15 2.1 16 2.0 17 5.1 18 1.2 19 1.1 20 2.7[/list] As you can see middeling 3 is the big one |
#6
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Re: Middling Football games...
[ QUOTE ]
This MIGHT help The below chart has the Line and the % of the time the score HITS the line <ul type="square"> 1 3.1 2 4.0 3 16.8 4 7.0 5 2.7 6 5.9 7 6.9 8 2.3 9 1.8 10 5.9 11 3.4 12 1.8 13 3.3 14 4.5 15 2.1 16 2.0 17 5.1 18 1.2 19 1.1 20 2.7[/list] As you can see middeling 3 is the big one [/ QUOTE ] Is this from Wong's book or is it updated? I don't have his book in front of me, so just curious. craig |
#7
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Re: Middling Football games...
craig r - it''s something old I copied off the SHGoddess forum a number of years ago.
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#8
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Re: Middling Football games...
[ QUOTE ]
Any hints on where? [/ QUOTE ] It's been a while since I bought one, but just do a Google search. There are a ton of places that sell them. You should be able to get a good historical NFL database for $100 or so. |
#9
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Re: Middling Football games...
This is harder than it looks. There are not many, and it's hard to find exactly what you want. (this from a guy who has googled and searched for a good database for about 4 hours in the past week).
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#10
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Re: Middling Football games...
What about this one: http://www.mrnfl.com/database.asp. It was the second result on my search and it looks like it has most everything you would want for $99.
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