|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Where is mistake?
After journey to Sardegna for two weeks without any kind of gambling included i find myself forgotten how to play poker a bit. Trying to re-adapt.
UTG is 15/12 after 157 hands. I've seen him raising twice in early positions. Am i too weak or just properly played this hand? Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) converter Preflop: PeterRus is UTG+2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">PeterRus 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, PeterRus calls. Flop: (9.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, PeterRus calls. Turn: (5.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, PeterRus calls. River: (7.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, PeterRus calls. Final Pot: 9.75 BB |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Where is mistake?
I think the line is solid. you're not going to get any extra value from AQ/AJ/TT/99 and probably extract less, AcQc/AcKc and KcQc you might get some extra action and AA/QQ/JJ will give you more than you want.
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Where is mistake?
[ QUOTE ]
I think the line is solid. you're not going to get any extra value from AQ/AJ/TT/99 and probably extract less, AcQc/AcKc and KcQc you might get some extra action and AA/QQ/JJ will give you more than you want. [/ QUOTE ] Do you think any hand he plays can fold to a river raise getting almost 11:1? I was thinking they could at first (that is the weaker holdings like 99/TT/AJ could get away) but I am not so sure now. If they can't I am starting to like raising the river again since you are ahead of villains range here I think. AA - 6 ways KK - 1 way QQ - 3 ways JJ - 3 ways AQ - 12 ways KQ - 6 ways 88? - 3 ways hands I'm less comfortable putting in his range: TT - 6 ways 99 - 6 ways AK - 8 ways I don't think many people will be bluff three betting here, so I don't see getting three bet by anything less than JJ. If those assumptions are reasonable, then 15 times you lose one more BB and win one more BB 18+ times (depending on how often he has an underpair and will pay off since some draws missed and the pot is huge). I guess it depends on how often he plays hands other than AA/KK/QQ/JJ/88 this way and how often he can fold to a river raise with the pot that big AK (possibly with a flush draw) missing. (Of course I haven't played limit in 6 months, so my already underdeveloped game is pretty rusty). |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Where is mistake?
[ QUOTE ]
you are ahead of villains range here I think. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this is true. Villain has 12 PFR and capped pre flop. This board should set off warning bells because most capping hands have us beat or tied: Board: Qd Jc 5c 8s equity (%) 63 { JJ+, AKs, AKo } 37 { KK } If we put AQs, TT in his capping range, we are a 51% favorite on the turn. Not enough of a favorite to raise. A 15/12 player won't usually cap AQs or TT, for that matter. Hell, he might not cap AKo(in that case we're in trouble). On the river, a raise is unthinkable. Call and pray that we are tied with the other KK or beating an overplayed AQs or TT. |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Where is mistake?
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think this is true. Villain has 12 PFR and capped pre flop. [/ QUOTE ] Ack, I am such a moron. I read the hand that he called the three bet. With villain capping pf, yeah I call down. |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Where is mistake?
I think you need to find a raise on the turn or the river, but maybe not in that game, which I have not played in. His turn bet is either to not give you a free card or hoping you raise so he can three bet. I think I like raising the river since he might be able to muck a hand like AQ on the turn if you raise, but will still three bet you with QQ/JJ and maybe some semi-bluffing hands or even AQ no flush draw, so a turn three bet puts you in a tough spot.
|
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Where is mistake?
I think it's fine.
|
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Where is mistake?
I like it.
|
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Where is mistake?
wow. initially i feel that this is way too tight, but given that board and villain's stats, I can only see one hand that he plays this way that you beat: AQs. I think I like it.
|
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Where is mistake?
I probably could not find one myself, but I don't think a turn fold is unreasonable.
|
|
|