What a STUPID 4th place...what should have I done?

[1C5]

So stupid. Your move here instead? Small raise folded to a push or simply fold or do you push also?

Was called by AK to lose but it doesn't matter if it would have been KQ, 22 or TT that I was called by, still a dumb push I think.

Total number of players : 4
Seat 4: Hero (1860)
Seat 5: Spadevol (635)
Seat 7: bigchips1000 (1795)
Seat 8: blong2 (3710)
bigchips1000 posts small blind (100)
blong2 posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Jh, As ]
Hero raises (1860) to 1860
Hero is all-In.
Spadevol folds.
bigchips1000 calls (1695)
bigchips1000 is all-In.

[Uppercut]

This is a situation where many people (including myself) make a move with AJo because we feel that we are being weak-tight if we don't. I'm learning that the last thing I want to do on the bubble is take on the big stack in the big blind with a mediocre starting hand, espcially when there is a small stack on the verge of busting.

I push. AJ is too good of a hand, IMO, and the short stack isn't low enough yet for me to sit back. I think it's a good time to pick up chips, since the SB should be thinking how low the short stack is, and the BB knows that he can coast into the money, as long as he doesn't do something stupid. And if someone wakes up with a hand...well, it's a sign to stop playing poker and go back to work. Maybe my problem is exactly what you're saying, I think folding is weak tight.

it's my 3rd post, so take it for what it's worth.

[BadMongo]

Well, I wouldn't call AJ 'mediocre' in a 4 handed situation. It's a pretty decent starting hand on the bubble in most cases. However, I agree that pushing is questionable because of the relative stack positions.

Initially I thought this was an easy push despite the other stack sizes, but after fooling around with SGA I'm convinced it is not. A push seems to be -EV for any reasonable calling ranges you put the other player on. I really don't like the idea of raising to 500-600. This would be about a third of your stack, and even if no one comes over the top, there is a good chance the big stack will call from the BB, which puts you in a tough spot if you miss the flop.

It seems pretty weak/tight, but I think a fold is correct.

I raise to 600 and take the blinds. If raised, I fold most of the time. Of course, dont always look for cookie cutter anwsers. Poker is a situational game.

The reason you fold ot a raise, is that a raise will USUALLy mean a better hand (not always), but even if you do fold after the 3x BB rasie, you have plenty of chips to get ITM.

[Damian UK]

I am really confused by the answers here

AJo is a weak hand 4-handed? and a 3xbb raise is enough?

I guess if all you want to do is get ITM then fold everything except AA and KK, of course if you want to WIN proper money then push <font color="red">every </font> time.

A 3xBb raise achieves nothing except to lose 1/3 of your chips if you miss the flop and fold to a push from another player and/or check it down to the river and lose, (with you then paying the BB next hand). Will the BB call for another 400 with a mediocre hand, probably yes, will he call another 1600, most probably no, therefore easy push.

You should push, as it knocks out the SB if he calls and loses and cripples the BB if he calls and loses (1/2 his stack).

Can't see why you would want to fold this at all?

Just my thoughts

Damian

[BadMongo]

The reason you would want to fold this is because raising to 3xBB is a bad idea for the reasons you stated in your post, and pushing is -EV. That leaves folding or limping. I'd rather not limp for 200 chips only to have the BB min bet the flop and force me to fold beacause I have no idea what hands I could be up against (not to mention the fact that you expose yourself to raise PF as well). That leaves folding as the only option left.

[silencee]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason you would want to fold this is because raising to 3xBB is a bad idea for the reasons you stated in your post, and pushing is -EV. That leaves folding or limping. I'd rather not limp for 200 chips only to have the BB min bet the flop and force me to fold beacause I have no idea what hands I could be up against (not to mention the fact that you expose yourself to raise PF as well). That leaves folding as the only option left.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd like to see the math that shows this as -EV. it feels to me like most responses in this thread are being too results oriented.

[BadMongo]

I used SGA to do the calculations, and I'm not going to go through the tediousness of writing it all out for you by hand. You can do it for yourself if you want, but here are the results according to SGA:

I assumed a fairly loose calling range for the other players would be appropriate, since this is a low buy-in SNG. I used 22+, A2+, KJo+, K9s+, QJs (23% of hands).

EV Fold = 26.7%
EV Push = 26.3%
EV Diff = -0.4%

So this is a pretty clear fold. The calling range of the big stack is by far the most important estimate, but the interesting thing is that even if we tighten up the big stack's range to an unrealistic 99+, AQ+, a push becomes only marginally +EV with a gain in equity of only +0.2%.

[bengele]

I tried to do this long hand using BadMongos range and got a different answer that he did. Is my math right? The only thing I didn't account for that I can think of is multiple calls.

Win/Loose according to poker stove
Ajo 56.34%
22+, A2+, KJo+, K9s+, Qjs 43.66%

Button will call 23.68% of the time.
Button will fold 76.32% of the time.
Button will win 10.339% of the time (.2368*43.66)
Button will loose 13.341% of the time (.2368*54.34)
When button wins he we gain 935 chips (doubles up + small blind + big blind)

76.32% button gains 0 chips (.7632*0=0)
10.339% of the time button wins 935 chips (.10339*935=96.67)
13.441% button looses 635 chips (.13441*635=84.72)

Button average chips = 635+0+96.67-84.72=646.95

SB will call 18.073% of the time. (1-.2338)*.2368) // this is because button may have called.
SB will fold 81.927% of the time (1-.18073)
SB will win 7.89% of the time (.18073*43.66)
SB will loose 10.182% of the time (.18073*54.34)
When SB wins he we gain 2060 chips (Hero chips + big blind)

81.927% SB looses 100 chips (.81927*100=81.93)
7.89% of the time SB wins 2060 chips (.0789*2060=162.54)
10.182% SB looses 1860 chips (.10182*1860=189.39)

SB average chips = 1795-81.93+162.54-189.39=1686.22

BB will call 13.793% of the time. (1-.2338-.18073)*.2368) // this is because button or sb may have called.
BB will fold 86.207% of the time (1-.13793)
BB will win 6.022% of the time (.13793*43.66)
BB will loose 7.771% of the time (.13793*54.34)
When BB wins he we gain 1960 chips (Hero chips + small blind)

86.207% BB looses 200 chips (.86207*200=172.41)
6.022% of the time BB 1960 chips (.06022*1960=118.03)
7.771% BB looses 1860 chips (.07771*1860=144.54)

BB average chips = 3710-172.41+118.03-144.54=3511.08

Hero's average chips must then be 8000-646.95-1686.22-3511.08=2155.75

Average chips after push
Hero 2155.75 (28.46%)
Button 646.95 (11.31%)
SB 1686.22 (25.01%)
BB 3511.08 (35.23%)