flopping a set

[Gahnia radula]

It is my understanding that the probability of making a set IF u stay all the way to the river is just under 20%
My question is what is the probability of making a set on the FLOP

[Gahnia radula]

I forgot to add while holding pocket pairs.....sorry

[SunTzu68]

I believe it is about 12.25%. (Check my math please)

ie.

2/50 (4%) + 2/49 (4.08%) + 2/48 (4.17%) =12.25%

[pudley4]

Using your way (adding the probabilities of each card) we need to make a correction:

The chance of hitting the set on the first card = 2/50 = 4%.
The chance of hitting on the second = 2/49 has to be multiplied by the chance of missing on the first (48/50) = 3.918%
The chance of hitting on the third = 2/48 has to be multiplied by the chance of missing the first and second (48/50 * 47/49) = 3.836% Add them up to get 11.754%

Another way: There are 19600 total flops. 17296 (48*47*46/6) do not contain one of your pair. 2304 contain one or both of your cards. 2304/19600 = 11.755%

[BruceZ]

This is correct for a set or quads. For just a set, you can do this just with fractions as (2/50)(48/49)(47/48)*3 = 11.510% or 7.7-1. The reason we multiply by 3 is because the set can be made on any of the 3 cards.

So this would say the probability of quads must be 11.755% - 11.510% = 0.245%. To check this, the probability of quads is (2/50)(1/49)(48/48)*3 = 0.245% so it checks. Here we multiply by 3 because the extra card can be in 3 places.

[BruceZ]

This still isn't the probability of just a set, because we are still including flopping a full house. The probability of just a set is (2/50)(48/49)(44/48)*3 = 10.776% or 8.3-1. The probability of a full house is (2/50)(48/49)(3/48)*3 = 0.735%. The probability of quads as we said is (2/50)(1/49)(48/48)*3 = 0.245%. These add up to 11.756% or 7.5-1 for a set or better.

[SExyBeast]

or put another way pp in the hole ur about 8-1 shot to make set [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img] gl hf

[pudley4]

approx 11.75% (or 7.5-1)