Even stacks on bubble

[HonestIago15]

***** Hand History for Game 2520416721 *****
300/600 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 14761786) - Fri Aug 12 00:43:49 EDT 2005
Table Table 13991 (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Trev1222 (1933)
Seat 2: skairzo (1823)
Seat 7: MrDragon999 (2067)
Seat 8: beck666666 (2177)
MrDragon999 posts small blind (150)
beck666666 posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to MrDragon999 [ Kc, 2s ]
Trev1222 folds.
skairzo folds.
MrDragon999 raises (1917) to 2067
MrDragon999 is all-In.
beck666666 calls (1767)
Creating Main Pot with $4134 with MrDragon999
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7d, 9c, Jd ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Qd ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 9s ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 4134 |
Board: [ 7d 9c Jd Qd 9s ]
Trev1222 balance 1933, didn't bet (folded)
skairzo balance 1823, didn't bet (folded)
MrDragon999 balance 0, lost 2067 [ Kc 2s ] [ a pair of nines -- Kc,Qd,Jd,9c,9s ]
beck666666 balance 4244, bet 2067, collected 4134, net +2067 [ 2h Ac ] [ a pair of nines with ace kicker -- Ac,Qd,Jd,9c,9sAc(kicker card) ]



Would you push this? What are your pushing standards with almost even stacks on the bubble from SB?

[Nottom]

i'd push it and be happy about it.

He needs to be calling with about 20% of his hands to make it a bad push ... of course based on his call he very well may be.

[flytrap]

I don't like this push at all. You have plenty of chips, and if you get called here you're probably a significant underdog. I'd rather wait to see if your opponents will play a big pot. To push from the sb, I'd need something like k8, a pair, ax. If he calls there is a big chance you're out of the tourney. If you fold, you haven't hurt your chances much of getting 1st.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like this push at all. You have plenty of chips, and if you get called here you're probably a significant underdog. I'd rather wait to see if your opponents will play a big pot. To push from the sb, I'd need something like k8, a pair, ax. If he calls there is a big chance you're out of the tourney. If you fold, you haven't hurt your chances much of getting 1st.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a good player I would push with any 2 here. Against a 10+1 player I think K2 is pretty much the cutoff.

The fact is he is going to fold way most of the time and of the few times you do get called you will win about 1/3 of the time. The blinds represent nearly 25% of your stack ... you need to push here.

Yes its scary, yes it sucks when he calls, but this is the type of push that wins SNGs.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Against a good player I would push with any 2 here. Against a 10+1 player I think K2 is pretty much the cutoff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nottom, I have to disagree with the K2 being the cutoff part of your statement. Isn't this just a pure case of using the SK hand rankings? Especially since the stacksizes are essentially equal, SK applies completely here. (No waiting for a mini-stack to bust considerations.) Or am I missing something?

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Against a good player I would push with any 2 here. Against a 10+1 player I think K2 is pretty much the cutoff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nottom, I have to disagree with the K2 being the cutoff part of your statement. Isn't this just a pure case of using the SK hand rankings? Especially since the stacksizes are essentially equal, SK applies completely here. (No waiting for a mini-stack to bust considerations.) Or am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]
If Villain calls an 00ber-wide range, you can't push a range. Remember, getting into a coinflip on the bubble sucks, so we tighten up our calling range. +Chip EV moves aren't +$EV.

If opponent calls a huge range, this factor also comes in. Because confrontations leaving you with little to nothing suck on the bubble, and getting called means you get into a confronation, you will need to fold some +Chip EV hands if your opponent calls with horrible hands.

[Ixnert]

Everyone is making like villain calling with A2 means he has an incredibly wide calling range. It doesn't.

Wider than he should, obviously. But any ace, any pair, any two broadway is still only, what, 23%? (And I'd find the idea that he'd call with QT or JT unlikely.) So he folds at least 77% of the time, you win a bit over a third of the remainder, you're out in fourth about 15% of the time. This is a pretty realistic 10+1/20+2 calling range, with or without the worst two-broadway hands.

If you fold, your $ equity is 24.39% of the pool.

If you push and get a fold, 27.78%.
If you push and win, 38.58%.
If you push and lose, 0%.
Total: 24.48%

So it's pretty much a wash (+0.09%) with that probably slightly too generous range. But no way is it an "easy fold".

There's also some value in being the largest of four almost-equal stacks, in that if you don't have chances later to steal blinds (because of pushes before you), you're the last one to get desperate, and if you want to pass up one of these razor-thin situations later, you've bought that freedom.

All things considered, I think I push and curse my luck for getting called by one of the rare hands in BB's range that dominates me, but happy with the push nonetheless. But I wouldn't argue against someone that wanted to fold here, just someone that thought it was an easy call. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Against a good player I would push with any 2 here. Against a 10+1 player I think K2 is pretty much the cutoff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nottom, I have to disagree with the K2 being the cutoff part of your statement. Isn't this just a pure case of using the SK hand rankings? Especially since the stacksizes are essentially equal, SK applies completely here. (No waiting for a mini-stack to bust considerations.) Or am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just becasue its +ChipEV doesn't mean its +$EV ... you should know that by now.

Running SNGPT agasint just about the tightest range that would include A2o shows K2 as basically breakeven. Obviously I consider things like QJs to be "better" hands than K2o and would push those as well

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
if you get called here you're probably a significant underdog.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do people make statements like this all the time? The fact that IF you get called here you're a significant underdog is just another way of saying that he should only be calling with extremely good hands. Put another way, your opponent will almost always fold, thus pushing is a good play.

The push was good. Easily the correct play and not even close.

[flytrap]

The reason I said that, is because it's true that you definately don't want to get called here. Any Ace, King, pair have you in bad shape, whereas folding leaves you in fine shape still. Being a slightly larger stack than the other 3 will help, sure, but I'd rather look for something better, which you will surely get before the blinds bring you too low. I'd rather wait for a spot that is more clear-cut, and let my opponents make the tough decisions.