Short Stack Push

[Pat Southern]

This is from a $30 rebuy on party. UTG is very loose preflop, like 40% VPIP. CO is a good player from 2+2.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (10 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG (t4380)
UTG+1 (t3815)
UTG+2 (t2505)
MP1 (t8040)
MP2 (t3730)
<font color="#C00000">MP3 (t4105)</font>
<font color="#C00000">CO (t7065)</font>
Button (t4240)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t1450)</font>
BB (t4825)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls t300, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls t300, CO calls t300, Hero raises allin for 1450...

[TomHimself]

I think I would save my stack for a open-push. your gonna get called here a large % of the time, peopple will call a shortstack with alot getting 2:1. I think you can wait.

[illini43]

I really don;t like the push either, someone is going to call you here a large majority of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
I would save my stack for a open-push

[/ QUOTE ]

[rockythecat99]

Eh I dont like it. Most likely what is going to happen is everyone will fold to CO who will call your all in based on 1)it looks like a steal
2)pot odds(over 2:1)
You also mentioned CO was a 2+2er so he will almost surely call with any two if folded to him knowing that your hand range is very large.

[DireWolf]

I like it, i don't think your getting called that often

[MLG]

CO will be forced to call with many hands getting basically 2:1.

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]
CO will be forced to call with many hands getting basically 2:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Will I be a 2:1 dog vs those hands?

[MLG]

You're asking the wrong question. When you decide to push you have to assume you will get called by the CO. Therefore you are risking 1450 to win 1450+Dead money or 1450+1050=2500 or 1.7:1. The CO is risking 1150 to win that same 2500 pot so he is the on getting better than 2:1. Against a limping range its probably barely +EV, but if you factor in the chance that one of the original limpers is a pansy who didnt open raise with a good hand but will call your push, or the chance that the first limper was trapping, I like a fold.

[Pat Southern]

I thought this was a good push at the time, and I'm still undecided. Including the blinds, there's 1350 dead in the pot, and I'll be risking 1300 to pick it up, therefore even if I'm called everytime I only need to be good 1/3 to make it +EV. If you include just a 10% chance that it gets folded around, I only need to be about 30.5%. However there is a chance that one of the limpers was slowplaying, but I think that's somewhat unlikely given my read of UTG, and I'm not really sure how to include that in an EV calculation. Assuming the 2+2er calls every time even against his limping range I feel that I'm better than 1/3:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,178,065,152 games 2.094 secs 562,590,808 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.1367 % 38.46% 00.68% { Q3s }
Hand 2: 60.8633 % 60.18% 00.68% { 88-22, AJs-A5s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AJo-A8o, KQo }

I also think something can be said about taking a slightly -EV gamble here to give me more options to accumulate chips.

[TomHimself]

[ QUOTE ]
I like it, i don't think your getting called that often

[/ QUOTE ]you sure about that?