PP $30 MTT - Final Table Push?

Spiph · #1 08-09-2005, 12:44 PM

Hero has A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and is the short stack on the BB with close to 55K after posting, with fairly tight image. Blinds are 5K and 10K. 9 players left.

Folded to SB (fairly tight, but who had raised me a few times before in different table from Button for steals and I had folded while on BB). SB has around 120K and raises to 24K.

Hero?

wpr101 · #2 08-09-2005, 12:49 PM

Tough decision. I would fold here. If you call or raise what are you hoping he has? The only hands your beating are cards in between yours such as KQ which your only a slight favorite against. I would wait to the blinds pass and then push sometime on the next round when there was no raise before you; that way you get atleast some fold equity.

DemonDeac · #3 08-09-2005, 12:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
(fairly tight, but who had raised me a few times before in different table from Button for steals and I had folded while on BB).
Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this makes this a push

wpr101 · #4 08-09-2005, 01:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(fairly tight, but who had raised me a few times before in different table from Button for steals and I had folded while on BB).
Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you push here your practically garunteed to be an underdog or a coinflip. The only reason you could make the call is based on pots odds and the pot odds aren't that significant since your only have 10k in. The only way you push here is if you think there's a chance he's going to fold. The fold equity combined with pot odds would then make this a push.

i think this makes this a push

[/ QUOTE ]

#5 08-09-2005, 01:04 PM

I think you have to push. You are probably a slight favorite heads up with 20% of your stack already in the pot.

wpr101 · #6 08-09-2005, 01:25 PM

For all of you guys who are saying this is a clear push what are you hoping the villian has? Ax has hero dominated. Pocket pair has hero dominated. Suited connectors is 43/57 in favor of the hero. Someone explain.

#7 08-09-2005, 02:02 PM

Folded all the way to the SB who raises you 24k...I would say the chances of him having you dominated is less than the 20% you already have in the pot. You need to double up sometime if you want to make the final table and chances are when you do take your shot you will only be able to hope that you are slight favorite since time is running out. If you fold here you just gave away 20% of your stack with another 10% going in next hand. Plus if you defend now and win with "marginal" cards people will think twice about stealing your blinds next time. I think the SB literally has any random hand. Chance that he has an ace with a 5 or higher kicker or a pair of 4s or higher is about 10% making the push worth it.

wpr101 · #8 08-09-2005, 02:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Chance that he has an ace with a 5 or higher kicker or a pair of 4s or higher is about 10% making the push worth it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where are you getting this statistic from? The fact that he's raising makes it more likely he has a pair or Ax than normal even though he has stolen before. If I had to guess id say 30% of the time he's got Ax or a pair.

DonT77 · #9 08-09-2005, 04:22 PM

I agree, he could be raising to 24K here with any 2. PokerStove says A4s is a 59:41 favorite against one random hand - so push 55K and hope to win 75K (65K from him + your 10K BB).

wpr101 · #10 08-09-2005, 05:04 PM

Yes, he could be raising with any 2 but it more probable that he has better than average because he raied.