Finding out why I'm hemmoraging chips

cmwck · #1 08-09-2005, 03:35 AM

I'm feeling lately that I can't play any hand correctly.
Feel free to show me a better way to play it.

CO is an unknown.

Absolute Poker 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, CO raises, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, MP folds, CO caps, Button folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

River: (9.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.75 BB

#2 08-09-2005, 03:43 AM

I'm not a big fan of the flop donkbet. I'd probably c/c all the way postflop. This way, I'll lose the least to an overpair, and let him bluff away with AK/AQ or TT.

Don't flame me too bad, please, I don't play 6max. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Shillx · #3 08-09-2005, 03:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not a big fan of the flop donkbet. I'd probably c/c all the way postflop. This way, I'll lose the least to an overpair, and let him bluff away with AK/AQ or TT.

Don't flame me too bad, please, I don't play 6max. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

No need for a flame. This is dead on IMO.

Brad

jason_t · #4 08-09-2005, 03:44 AM

Check/call, check/call, check/call.

W. Deranged · #5 08-09-2005, 10:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Check/call, check/call, check/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is right, I think.

The problem with this hand is that AK will often get freaky on the flop in situations like this, and there is no way we can make a confident fold based on flop action alone. Since any information we could gain about villain's hand on the turn will cost at least 2BB, there is no reason simply not to take this hand to showdown. We also cannot protect our hand against any of the big-card hands he might cap with (basically AK and occassionaly AQ) because they'll almost never fold.

Folding if an A or K comes is quite straightforward.

#6 08-09-2005, 11:10 AM

Is folding to a K or A different than folding to a Q simply because you put the villian on AA/KK/AK? (and not QQ)

and to try and bring together all the things I'm learning here... is it c/c, c/c, c/c because it is WA/WB? (Either we have 2 outs with a J or villian has 6 outs with A or K?)

W. Deranged · #7 08-09-2005, 11:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is folding to a K or A different than folding to a Q simply because you put the villian on AA/KK/AK? (and not QQ)

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason we fold to an A or K is because either of those cards remove a huge chunk of villain's range of hands that we were beating. If villain's range of capping hands if AA, KK, QQ, and AK (possibly AQ), we can proceed so long as there is no A or K on the flop, as AK represents a large enough segment of villain's range of hands (47%: there are 16 ways to have AK and 6 ways each to make AA, KK, or QQ) that we might still be ahead. If we are no longer ahead of AK, it's clear we cannot be ahead.

A Q (queen) on the turn is not that scary a card, because AQ is rarely going to be in villain's range of capping hands. Even though there are 16 ways to make AQ, when calculating a reasonable range of hands for villain, we should only let AQ represent a small fraction of villain's range of hands; even though there are many more AQ's in the deck than AA's, AA probably represents a large segment of villain's capping hands because almost everyone includes AA as a capping hand but few would include AQ.

[ QUOTE ]
and to try and bring together all the things I'm learning here... is it c/c, c/c, c/c because it is WA/WB? (Either we have 2 outs with a J or villian has 6 outs with A or K?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, basically. The major things to realize are that:

-When we are behind, we are way behind.
-We are usually behind.
-Those hands that we are beating are not that likely to fold (players don't like giving up AK) and hence there is little to be gained in raising early because we likely can't force AK out.

Since we'll be good often enough to continue, our only viable option is to call down. It's not glamorous, but there's nothing else we can do.

#8 08-09-2005, 11:41 AM

Thanks! (so nice to get such thorough feedback)

So yeah... I guess I phrased that last part wrong, the villian doesn't have outs with those Aces or Kings, he has a Lock (the proverbial checkmark, if you will) if one of those come and that assures us that we are drawing dead and can fold. Otherwise we lose the minimum by calling down.

Easystreet · #9 08-09-2005, 11:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Since we'll be good often enough to continue,

[/ QUOTE ]

If we assume the following, villain will cap pf with the following hands AA, KK, QQ and AKs how do we do the math to work out how likely we are to win this hand, this means folding if an A or K appear on turn or river. I suppose one would have to consider that on very rare occassions one will spike a J on the turn or river too.

ArturiusX · #10 08-09-2005, 04:59 AM

Can we fold if a K hits?