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#1
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109--Bubble play with chip lead
109 at empire
4 players blinds 150/300 Hero with A2 in sb with 3600k small blind with 3250 UTG and Button got 1575 each Folded to hero, Hero Push(mistake?) Note: BB has been quite tight Comment? TheArtist |
#2
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Re: 109--Bubble play with chip lead
It looks good to me.
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#3
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Re: 109--Bubble play with chip lead
I dump that very quickly.
Give me something like KTs and I'll let er rip. I see no reason to risk your tournament with 10+BB and a crappy hand. |
#4
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Re: 109--Bubble play with chip lead
[ QUOTE ]
I dump that very quickly. Give me something like KTs and I'll let er rip. I see no reason to risk your tournament with 10+BB and a crappy hand. [/ QUOTE ] With BB being tight, and one less ace for him to have, my gut tells me this push is +EV. |
#5
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Re: 109--Bubble play with chip lead
J,
I'm not saying it isn't marginally +EV. It's just one of those situations that I definitely pass on, and I'm pretty sure it's correct to do so. |
#6
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Re: 109--Bubble play with chip lead
I don't see why ICM would be wrong here when it says that this is a clear push.
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#7
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Re: 109--Bubble play with chip lead
In situations where the two med/short stacks are beside each other in the blinds I need a pretty big hand to mess with the other big stack. ICM doesn't account for the fact that these two guys are probably going to have a SB vs. BB encounter fairly soon. Perhaps this thinking is flawed.
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#8
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Re: 109--Bubble play with chip lead
If the big blind has been playing tight then wouldn't a raise of 4 or 5xBB get him to fold any hand that he would've folded to an all-in bet? Or do you believe that there are hands that he would fold to an all-in bet but would play against a raise of 4 x BB?
If you raise 4xBB he's only going to reraise with hands that you are a big underdog against. This gives you a chance to get away from the hand. You're the chip leader with an M of 8, and the two small stacks have an M of 3.5. Is the risk of having an all-in bet called by a hand that will be more than a 2-1 favorite compensated by the additional hands that will be folded to an all-in bet but not to a 4xBB raise? |
#9
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Re: 109--Bubble play with chip lead
[ QUOTE ]
If the big blind has been playing tight then wouldn't a raise of 4 or 5xBB get him to fold any hand that he would've folded to an all-in bet? Or do you believe that there are hands that he would fold to an all-in bet but would play against a raise of 4 x BB? If you raise 4xBB he's only going to reraise with hands that you are a big underdog against. This gives you a chance to get away from the hand. You're the chip leader with an M of 8, and the two small stacks have an M of 3.5. Is the risk of having an all-in bet called by a hand that will be more than a 2-1 favorite compensated by the additional hands that will be folded to an all-in bet but not to a 4xBB raise? [/ QUOTE ] You want to get away with a hand after raising 40% of your stack and getting better than 2:1 immediate odds on a call? I don't think so. |
#10
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Re: 109--Bubble play with chip lead
Any hand that this tight player reraises with will win > 70% of the time against A-2. Do you want to be all-in as this big a dog when you're the chip leader on the bubble? If there are no hands that this tight player will fold against an all-in but play against a raise of 4xBB, then the all-in can't be right.
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