how bad was this hand?

jonoo · #1 08-05-2005, 05:52 PM

I know i shouldve folded on the turn so please dont comment on that, but after i do call and hit on the river, then what? should this be an easy fold?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Button ($0)
Hero ($148.40)
BB ($90)
UTG ($73.03)
MP ($146.65)
CO ($74.28)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, 1 fold, Hero (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($4) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP bets $4, Hero calls $4, BB folds, UTG calls $4.

Turn: ($16) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP bets $7, Hero calls $7, UTG folds.

River: ($30) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $20, MP calls $134.65 (All-In), Hero??????

NYCNative · #2 08-05-2005, 06:07 PM

I probably play it like you do on the turn, actually. You are still open-ended and have the second-nut flush draw and his bet prices you in - although a sharp villain knows this because he just hit his boat.

That said, a smart villain also wouldn't make such an overbet here, he would have raised it to $50 and tried to get an easy call and not a tough fold.

In fact, I would fear that raise more than the push which to me reeks of either a donk saying "Tee hee, I have trip Jacks" or a very scared villain who realized when you bet the spade river that maybe his trips aren't good anymore so he has to hope you'll fold.

I might lose a lot of money here but at the games I play, I have to call this one because more often than not, I won't. More often than not, he has the trip Jacks naked and MHIG.

Any reads?

jonoo · #3 08-05-2005, 06:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I probably play it like you do on the turn, actually. You are still open-ended and have the second-nut flush draw and his bet prices you in - although a sharp villain knows this because he just hit his boat.

That said, a smart villain also wouldn't make such an overbet here, he would have raised it to $50 and tried to get an easy call and not a tough fold.

In fact, I would fear that raise more than the push which to me reeks of either a donk saying "Tee hee, I have trip Jacks" or a very scared villain who realized when you bet the spade river that maybe his trips aren't good anymore so he has to hope you'll fold.

I might lose a lot of money here but at the games I play, I have to call this one because more often than not, I won't. More often than not, he has the trip Jacks naked and MHIG.

Any reads?

[/ QUOTE ]
no reads other than his PT stats which were 26%/8%/0.65. I was thinking the same that he had just the J and was trying to steal it, but was wrong and he turn over JT.
The more i think about it the more i think it was a situation for a clear fold. the pot only had $50 in it and i made it pretty clear that i had a flush, so to call another $115 just seems terrible since he's not gunna push often enough w/ only a naked J after my river lead.

NYCNative · #4 08-05-2005, 06:22 PM

Well, we thought alike. I wonder how many people here who say they would have folded would have called a smaller raise...

jonoo · #5 08-05-2005, 06:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I probably play it like you do on the turn, actually. You are still open-ended and have the second-nut flush draw

[/ QUOTE ]
anyone else agree with this? is it worth a marginal call with the board paired and you could be dead already?

djoyce003 · #6 08-05-2005, 06:37 PM

it really depends on your read of villain. If villain is good, there is no way he's not full potting or at LEAST 2/3 potting the turn on that board if he has trip jacks...when he fires half the pot after a full pot on the turn it REALLY looks like the full house IF he is decent. If he's a donk then I probably call because they aren't smart enough to protect their good hands. Sounds like he's far from a donk though so this would have been a fold i think on the turn smelling a big rat.

trevor · #7 08-05-2005, 07:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I probably play it like you do on the turn, actually. You are still open-ended and have the second-nut flush draw

[/ QUOTE ]
anyone else agree with this? is it worth a marginal call with the board paired and you could be dead already?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on how you think he'll bet the river when it's a spade or A/9. If an A or 9 comes off it makes AJ/J9 (likely combos) full. If I think he bets the pot on the river when it's a spade, it seems like this is -EV. Call me weak but how many times have YOU been holding the boat on the turn praying the guy catches up so you can jam the river?

Check-call on the river is the option over leading-calling a raise. No way your hand can be good there. The river is screaming fold.

foldem · #8 08-05-2005, 06:08 PM

lead out on the flop. this is an easy fold on the river.

xorbie · #9 08-05-2005, 06:10 PM

Check call the river man. Betting lets him know you have a flush so he auto pushes a boat.

NYCNative · #10 08-05-2005, 06:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Check call the river man. Betting lets him know you have a flush so he auto pushes a boat.

[/ QUOTE ]Why would a villain that is smart enough to price villain on on the turn be dumb enough to price villain out on the river? If villain is smart enough to underbet the turn, why is he overbetting the river? Unless villain has a read that Hero will make this call with even a weak flush, the overbet makes me skeptical.