5-5 FW deep stacks tricky situation

[aggie]

1 limper, bad player raises to 30, solid player ($1650) calls from cuttoff, i call from BB w/ 5-5 and limper calls. I cover everybody

4 players ($125)

Flop 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I lead for $100, fold, fold, solid player raises to $500. He has $1120 left.

Hero?

I don't have much of a read on solid player but he seems to play well (somewhere between taggish and laggish?)....He doesn't know much about me either but may consider me to be a maniac (i'm not sure). He definitely knows i'm aggressive.

The stack sizes are kind of weird here. Sorry if the answer is obvious but just wanted to get some opinions.

[Yeti]

Push.

[fimbulwinter]

against what logical hand range is this anything but a push?

fim

[aggie]

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against what logical hand range is this anything but a push?

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6-7 and 8-8 are the only ones.....But i think they are fairly likely in this situation.

[fimbulwinter]

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against what logical hand range is this anything but a push?

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6-7 and 8-8 are the only ones.....But i think they are fairly likely in this situation.

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so you think his hand range is strictly 67 and 88?

so he folds A8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 68[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 78[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 89[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 44, 99, and 45?

fim

[Laomedon]

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against what logical hand range is this anything but a push?

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6-7 and 8-8 are the only ones.....But i think they are fairly likely in this situation.

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So they're two hands that you're behind, both in the Villain's likely hand range. Wouldn't something like A8s or 45s, also be in that range? I think that there are a whole mess of hands that this Villain could reraise with in this spot that you're ahead of. I probably push in this spot without a specific indication that I'm dead or behind to 67s.

[Big_Jim]

Hands we're behind:

67s (4 combos, would he play 67o for a raise? Doubt it.) And it's 2:1 against improving
88 (3 combos) And we're basically drawing dead.

Hands we're ahead of:

44 (3 combos) And he's basically drawing dead
45s (1 combo) drawing basically dead
Overpairs 99-JJ And he has 2 outs
Flush draws (Lots of combos.) 2:1 against him
Flush draw with a pair (89s, A8s) 2:1 against him
Straight flush draw (78s, 68s) 3:2 against him
Bluff: Drawing nearly dead.

His hand range seems really wide on this one, and we are way ahead of the majority of it (feel free to remove any of the hands above that you don't think fit)

Way too many cards that could kill your action/beat you on the turn to do anything but push here, I think, given stack sizes.

After calling his bet, there's $1125 in the pot, and he's getting 2:1 on your push anyway, so go ahead and push.

This is particularly true, since he might think you're a maniac, which vastly increases his calling range.

[aggie]

Great post...I'm certainly not disagreeing with you. But if we're going to have a discussion here, let me play devils advocate.

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67s (4 combos, would he play 67o for a raise? Doubt it.) And it's 2:1 against improving
88 (3 combos) And we're basically drawing dead.
44 (3 combos) And he's basically drawing dead


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These, i think, are far and away the most likely hands that he'd raise to $500 with. They are all probably equally likely. I think there is a reasonable chance he's going to fold 4-4 if i push. i also think 67os is a possibility since we are playing deep stack poker

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45s (1 combo) drawing basically dead
Overpairs 99-JJ And he has 2 outs

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He's folding these hands if i push. I also think they are far less likely and i think he's more likely to either raise less or call with these hands (the overpairs in particular.

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Flush draws (Lots of combos.) 2:1 against him
Flush draw with a pair (89s, A8s) 2:1 against him
Straight flush draw (78s, 68s) 3:2 against him
Bluff: Drawing nearly dead.

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I just didn't think this guy is aggressive enough to be pushing his draws so hard. That was my gut anyway....Maybe i did not describe him well? Problem was i had not played with him long so i could not be sure.

So yes....There's lots of hands i'm ahead of but the ones that i'm behind are far more likely to be making that raise. That raise seemed VERY strong to me.

[Big_Jim]

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Great post...I'm certainly not disagreeing with you. But if we're going to have a discussion here, let me play devils advocate.

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67s (4 combos, would he play 67o for a raise? Doubt it.) And it's 2:1 against improving
88 (3 combos) And we're basically drawing dead.
44 (3 combos) And he's basically drawing dead


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These, i think, are far and away the most likely hands that he'd raise to $500 with. They are all probably equally likely. I think there is a reasonable chance he's going to fold 4-4 if i push. i also think 67os is a possibility since we are playing deep stack poker



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Villian isn't folding any of these hands, even 44. If he is, he is making a big mistake, considering your image. You're right though, stacks are so deep that 67o is a possibility, putting it up from 4 to 16 combos.

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45s (1 combo) drawing basically dead
Overpairs 99-JJ And he has 2 outs

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He's folding these hands if i push. I also think they are far less likely and i think he's more likely to either raise less or call with these hands (the overpairs in particular.

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True, if you push, he folds these hands. However, if you call, what do you do on the turn?

a) if a blank hits, or the board pairs.
If you lead strong again, he still folds these hands
If you check, I think he checks behind
b) If the flush card hits
If you lead, he might have you beat and push
If he doesn't have you beat, he probably folds
If you check, he takes his free card to beat you.
c) If he catches his 2 outer, you lose your ass

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Flush draws (Lots of combos.) 2:1 against him
Flush draw with a pair (89s, A8s) 2:1 against him
Straight flush draw (78s, 68s) 3:2 against him
Bluff: Drawing nearly dead.

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I just didn't think this guy is aggressive enough to be pushing his draws so hard. That was my gut anyway....Maybe i did not describe him well? Problem was i had not played with him long so i could not be sure.

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If he has any of these hands (except a bluff), he's pot committed, and basically has to call. If he folds, great.

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So yes....There's lots of hands i'm ahead of but the ones that i'm behind are far more likely to be making that raise. That raise seemed VERY strong to me.

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Of course, this is very player dependant.

However, considering a combination of the fact that you don't know him very well, and the fact that you think he might think that you're a maniac... I still think a push is best.

[The Bear]

Looks like a perfect board to put the money in the middle. I push.