Is there an answer?

[freemoney]

I have 6500, villian has 3500 blinds 200/400 we are of exact same skill level, what percentage will i win?

[citanul]

you will, with the exact same skill, win the % of the time that is = the % of the chips you have. in fact, i don't think that the size of the blinds matters.

the only question i have along with this is whether who's blind it is matters.

citanul

[TT_fold]

65%?

In this spot I usually push the top 50% of hands from the SB, unless I have the BB pegged as weak, in which case I can push any two.

[Mr_J]

"In this spot I usually push the top 50% of hands from the SB, unless I have the BB pegged as weak, in which case I can push any two."

I think you mistunderstood. He meant what will be the % that each player will win the tourney from that point on.

[bones]

TPFAP, pg 104-105 covers it fairly well.

[citanul]

you do understand that that in no way answers his question, right?

citanul

[bones]

Freezeout Calculations

"It's a common conception that your chances of winning a tournament against equally skilled players are equivalent to the fraction of total tournament chips that you hold. Thus, if you own 15 percent of the chips, your chances of winning are 15 percent. This happens to be right, even though most people dont know why."

He continues with an example and some math to prove his statement.

So...what part of his question did that not answer?

[citanul]

he might not own the book.

citanul

[bones]

He may or may not (I'd think most serious tournament players, SNG or otherwise, would own it), but I wasn't aware that referring someone to a source that explains the answer in much greater detail than someone will here is a faux pas.

[lorinda]

The other option to posting this question was to ICM it.

I think you should ICM it anyway, just to get a feel for the ICM.

Lori