Roidless Palmiero

[The Armchair]

At age 29 or so, Major League Baseball players tend to level off. They peak at around 27, stay at that level for three to six years, and then tend to enter into a hopefully slow statistical descent, ending their career as servicable players with history as an added bonus.

Through 29, Rafael Palmeiro had hit 155 home runs. His career averages were .298/.364./.480. He looked to be a very solid, All-Star caliber player, with an outside shot at the Hall. Through age 29, he was most similar to guys like Will Clark, John Olerud, Steve Garvey, and Don Mattingly. Not a bad group in which to be included.

In fact, if you compare Rafi's career stats through age 29 to the 10 most similar players to him through that age, you'll see a striking comparison. His 155 HRs was met by his colleague's 149. Their average line was a remarkabily similar .300/.362/.478 -- basically, one "ground ball with eyes" per half-season.

But while the Rafi-like Ten stayed constant over the next six years, Rafi himself did not. At age 35, Rafi had 400 career home runs. The average for the ten linked above? 234. (Garrett Anderson, not yet being 35 but being similar to Rafi at 29, has two seasons left to play, so you can tack up to 8 homers to that total.) While the batting averages (Palmeiro's .296 to their .298) and on-base percentages (Palmiero's .372 to their .364) stayed roughly apace, the slugging percentage gap grew from 2 points to forty-six (.516 to .470).

Sure, maybe he was a late bloomer, and admittedly, hitting in the Ballpark at Arlington must have helped a bit. And playing to age 40 had to help. But of the ten most similar batters at age 29, only one -- Reggie Smith -- broke 300 homers. Forget 550.

Jayson Stark says we have to look at the numbers first when deciding if Palmiero should be enshrined in Cooperstown. Well, the numbers suggest that he'd be like Clark, Garvey, etc., but for the steriods -- maybe a bit better, due to longevity and ballpark effects. Say, .290/.365/.480, 2800 hits, almost 400 homers. That's Harold Baines, Dave Parker, Jim Rice, area.

And those guys won't make the Hall.

[trying2learn]

Great post. I for one, hope they at least hold him out for a couple years...if he goes in first ballot it will be a shame.

The next 12 or so years of inductions are going to be interesting.

Palmiero was like Will Clark through 29 years old. Then, he blew up something hardcore. Only one player with his stats up to 29 broke 300. He has 550.

Rafael used steroids. A lot.

tl;dr

[New001]

Please stay in OOT.

[mrbaseball]

This is interesting stuff. I expect to see lots of this kind of analysis between now and whenever Palmeiro becomes eligible for the HOF. And I think this is exactly the kind of stuff that will keep him and the other usual suspects out of the hall. This kind of statistical forensics will show that these guys weren't really HOFers after all.

[CollinEstes]

But he would still possibly have around 3,000 hits which none of those guys where close to having.

Wouldn't 3,000 hits + 350-400 HRs, and solid defense at first, still give him a solid shot at the hall.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
But he would still possibly have around 3,000 hits which none of those guys where close to having.

Wouldn't 3,000 hits + 350-400 HRs, and solid defense at first, still give him a solid shot at the hall.

[/ QUOTE ]

If all his other stats were equal, and he dropped about 200 HRs as you suggest, he shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the HOF.

[CollinEstes]

How can those numbers not equal copperstown when....

Sandberg: Hits: 2386, HR: 282, RBI: 1061, AVG: .285

Palmerio: Hits: 3000+, HR: 400, RBI: 1775+, AVG: .289


He beats Ryne in pretty much every offensive catergory.

[DougOzzzz]

Raffy - over 2000 more ABs, better hitter's parks.

More importantly, you're comparing a 1st basemen to a 2nd basemen. Should every player with more impressive offensive stats than Phil Rizzuto make it in the HOF?

Also, for the purpose of nitpicking, originally you said 350-400 HRs, now you're saying 400 HRs. And you have to subtract at least 200 RBIs from his total too.

[CollinEstes]

This is true about the RBIs even with 350 I would say he is borderline. And also true about comparing to a 2B but still hes had three gold gloves.

What about Boggs he played 3rd which is similar to 1B as far as offensive production expected and Raf is around his numbers too, other than lifetime BA.

I think he would be close with 350 and a shoe in with 400, if we never knew about steriods.

But now I understand everyone's point.