Unlucky or outplayed? (long rambling post....sorry)

[jester710]

I would say my skill level is intermediate at 7 stud; I know I'm no expert, but I usually dominate the 5/10 games, especially shorthanded. The past week, however, I've been getting killed, and mostly by the same guy. Thing is, I can't tell if he's just on a lucky streak or if he's outplaying me (by playing me rather than his cards).

It's 5/10 at Absolute, sometimes heads-up but mostly with anywhere from 1 to 3 other players besides the two of us. I watch him play most every hand, usually coming in for a raise. I sit tight and wait for good hands (at least a 3 flush with high cards, or a low pair with live cards).

I know enough about his play that he only raises with super-strong hands (i.e., rolled up trips or aces in the hole) or complete bluffs; he'll wait till 5th or so to raise with a big split pair. So when I have a split pair of 8s and he raises with an ace showing, I'm pretty confident I have the best hand. I usually reraise and he keeps capping until I lose my nerve and check-call, only to find out that he made his pair of aces on 7th. I've also seen him cap with a gutshot against my aces up; he made his straight on 7th, taking down the pot.

I've literally only won a couple of hands against him; he either always starts out with big hands (he's had rolled-up trips at least 5 times against me, while I haven't had any yet) or sucks out on me. I'm fairly confident that he's just running good while I've gone cold, but I've recently begun to wonder if he's outplaying me by pushing me around and allowing himself to outdraw me. Any thoughts or suggestions would be greatly appreciated, as would any advice as to how to counter this type of play.

[bigredlemon]

The tone of your post sounds to me like you believe you should be winning against him but are dismayed by the fact that you are not, and want our assurance that he is just lucky. Consider if it makes more sense that his river card was a card that he started with, as he might have shuffled his down cards.

As for capping with just split eights... I'm not a big stud high player but it doesn't sound like something I would do all that often, if ever.

[jester710]

This is online, so I can see exactly what cards he got in what order. Also, I don't recommend capping with split eights either (and I don't do it against anyone else), but as I mentioned, when he raises with an ace showing, that almost always means he doesn't have anything.

[Bartholow]

Most of the online sites allow you to shuffle your down cards. Absolute doesn't?

[jester710]

Not to my knowledge, no. Even if they do, this guy isn't, unless he shuffles them so his straights and pairs aren't in order.

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
Not to my knowledge, no. Even if they do, this guy isn't, unless he shuffles them so his straights and pairs aren't in order.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, you should find this out.

Secondly, it sounds like this whole thing is personal. Poker should be about winning $$, not about being pissed off about suckouts, or beating someone into oblivion.

Thirdly, your opponent seems fairly tricky and aggressive.

Fourth, you seem to underestimate how much variance is involved in poker. I would imagine heads up poker may have even more variance.

Fifth, The fact that you think he is hitting so many river cards leads me to believe that this website, just like all of the other websites allows you to shuffle your cards. Thus, making you believe your opponent is fishier than he is. When using shuffle, it shuffles randomly, so sometimes the cards are shuffled, other times they are not.

[Bartholow]

It's impossible to tell without some specific hands. Could be you are playing a little too tight in these short games, or could be variance. Actually, more likely you are playing too passive... Hard to really say though.

[Bartholow]

Also, he REALLY only raises with bluffs and monsters? That just seems hard to believe. Even if that was true at one point, he may change that pattern.

[jester710]

I'm sorry I didn't post any hand histories; I'm new to this and not really sure how to use the converter or any of that stuff. I'll see if I can dig up any good examples of what I'm talking about.

I can't say with 100% certainty that he only raises with monsters or bluffs; it's just the way it seems. More likely than not, though, if he's got an big card showing and another one in the hole, he'll wait to check-raise on 5th rather than come out firing.

Thanks for the heads-up on maybe playing too passive. That's one of the main things I was worried about, but it just seemed like whenever I pushed back, I just ended up losing a bigger pot. In retrospect, that appears to be a tactical error.

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
he'll wait to check-raise on 5th rather than come out firing.


[/ QUOTE ]

How many times do you have to watch him check-raise to realize his check may be the start of a check-raise?

If he isn't betting his good hands much you should be able to take him down.