is this overplaying AK? by a pro no less

[JC_Saves]

PokerStars Game #2199563569: Tournament #10569875, Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2005/07/27 - 13:04:43 (ET)
Table '10569875 1' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: JohnnyBax (1340 in chips)
Seat 2: Minkee (1715 in chips)
Seat 3: northerngent (1520 in chips)
Seat 4: MisterMOTOWN (2425 in chips)
Seat 5: ChiliKing (1360 in chips)
Seat 6: KidKGB (1380 in chips)
Seat 7: slews (1470 in chips)
Seat 8: Nugie512 (1470 in chips)
Seat 9: luckyld (820 in chips)
northerngent: posts small blind 15
MisterMOTOWN: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
ChiliKing: calls 30, 4 folds, JohnnyBax: raises 120 to 150, 3 folds, ChiliKing: calls 120
*** FLOP *** [7c 9c 5c] (POT:345)
ChiliKing: checks, JohnnyBax: bets 150, ChiliKing: raises 150 to 300, JohnnyBax: calls 150
*** TURN *** [7c 9c 5c] [6d] (POT=945)
ChiliKing: bets 330, JohnnyBax: calls 330
*** RIVER *** [7c 9c 5c 6d] [Td] (Pot 1605)
ChiliKing: checks, JohnnyBax: bets 560 and is all-in, ChiliKing: calls 560
*** SHOW DOWN ***
JohnnyBax: shows [Kc Ad] (high card Ace)
ChiliKing: shows [Jc Jd] (a pair of Jacks)

Doesn't the way this hand play pretty much tell you that AK is not good after the flop? Is this just a total case of failing to reevaluate where you are at in the hand and overvaluing AK?

After the turn, how can you call any bet here with AK? you are behind to any pair, a set, and if it wasn't made on flop a straight now. And if you are really planning on going the distance with this AK, which at this point it sure looks like it, why don't you push all your chips in now and hope that the person folds to your "percieved straight"?

The river push here seems like total desparation to me. The only hand you can beat basically is a total bluff. Why not check it and hope that he was bluffing. Yes, I recognize that you have put almost all of your stack into this pot, but does that mean you just give up and throw the rest in because it is a huge pot?

Does anyone else think that the play of this hand was something you would see in a $5 SNG on PP? Or am I just missing something here. I was hoping to learn something from watching some "pro" players and how they play, but so far it has not been very enlightening.

[Superfluous Man]

Did you miss the part where he's getting 5.3:1 on the flop and 3.9:1 on the turn with two overcards and the 2nd nut flush draw?

Sure, the river bet looks like desperation when you know he has nothing, but some might find it a pretty frightening board. Though he probably doesn't raise preflop with many hands that contain an 8, he could be trapping with a made flush (I do think he plays any other hand that beats jacks, such as AA-QQ, or a set, stronger than this).

The only problem I really see with the river bluff is that once ChiliKing has already put in more than half his stack, he's probably going to call the river despite the fact that his river check screams "I'm weak!" Either way, it's not badly played in my view.

Edit: To reiterate, the point of a river push is to get ChiliKing to fold a better hand. That's like, the point of bluffing. Also, given that ChiliKing minraised on the flop, I wouldn't put it past him to fold the river after committing more than half his stack.

[JC_Saves]

ChiliKing: calls 30, 4 folds, JohnnyBax: raises 120 to 150, 3 folds, ChiliKing: calls 120
*** FLOP *** [7c 9c 5c] (POT:345)
ChiliKing: checks, JohnnyBax: bets 150, ChiliKing: raises 150 to 300, JohnnyBax: calls 150
*** TURN *** [7c 9c 5c] [6d] (POT=945)
ChiliKing: bets 330, JohnnyBax: calls 330
*** RIVER *** [7c 9c 5c 6d] [Td] (Pot 1605)
ChiliKing: checks, JohnnyBax: bets 560 and is all-in, ChiliKing: calls 560

Thank you. I did miss the flush draw on the flop.

But having said that, can you really say that he is gettin 5.3 to 1 on the flop? I know that is what it looks like straight up if you do the math but it really is more like 645\300 slightly better than 2 to 1 since he put in 150 of this money to begin with.

Somehow it doesn't seem logical for me to drive the pot up by betting and then have someone come over the top of me, and then I get to ignore my previous bet this hand like it didn't happen and say wow look at the great odds I am getting.

yes, he is getting 3.8 to 1 on the turn which is below what you really should need if you follow the math and probabilities with one card to come to draw out.

The way this hand as been played up to the turn, how can you possibly believe that pairing either of your cards is a solid out to win?

Yes you have second best flush draw, to someone that could already have the flush on the flop. Someone could have a made straight which puts you solidly behind relying only on the flush as your only outs.

Isn't there a saying don't make a bet that can cost you money? His river bet can only lose him money after the way it has been played and the board that is there. Did his opponent play like this board scared him? I think not. He played like he welcomed it all the way, and then he checked it, hoping that Johnny would fire off the last of his chips, because he knew if he bet there was a great chance that Johnny would fold it.

[Nicholasp27]

once he's put his money into the pot, it's a 'sunk cost'...u can't lower his odds of a subsequent bet because of that..when he bets that 150, it's to get all of the money in the pot, including what he's already invested...so it's total pot divided by 150, not just his opp's contribution

[Richie Rich]

It is inconceivable for a Pro's bluff to be called.

Therefore he must not be a Pro. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[steeser]

I've been playing in these SNG's a lot lately. Johnnybax pretty much plays pedal to the medal all of the time. I'm awfully surprised that he didn't push on the flop after being raised.

Generally his favorite bet is all-in.

[MegaBet]

If I'm the aggressor preflop with AK (which is usually the case), I'll make a standard continuation bet of 1/2 the pot on the flop if I don't hit and fold if raised. I'll check the turn and try and see it down for nothing if called and I still haven't improved. You thought ace-high was good in this situation?

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm the aggressor preflop with AK (which is usually the case), I'll make a standard continuation bet of 1/2 the pot on the flop if I don't hit and fold if raised. I'll check the turn and try and see it down for nothing if called and I still haven't improved. You thought ace-high was good in this situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like playing against people like you.

[MegaBet]

Hey whatever works man. I am successful, but each to their own.

[Superfluous Man]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey whatever works man. I am successful, but each to their own.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to think of a situation in which folding a 15-outer getting 5.3:1 from the pot (and closing the action) "works." [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
turn: yes check it through

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to think of a situation in which it's possible to check it through after someone's bet into you. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Edit: I probably push the turn here, but I guess that's neither here nor there.