|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Table VPIP to Seen Flop %, math question.
Not considering the blinds.
For example, the table VPIP outside the blinds is 25%, and I'm on the button. There's 7 players to act before me, so there's about an 86% chance that at least one person will come into the pot behind me [1-(1-.25)^7]. How do I figure out the probability of one player coming in behind me, or all seven coming in? |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Table VPIP to Seen Flop %, math question.
I just thought of another way to put the question.
Assume there are four events, and each has a specific probability of happening. #1 - 25% #2 - 35% #3 - 50% #4 - 70% Each event is counted separately. On average, how many events will happen? I could write a simulation program to tell me, but I'd rather know the math. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Table VPIP to Seen Flop %, math question.
[ QUOTE ]
I just thought of another way to put the question. Assume there are four events, and each has a specific probability of happening. #1 - 25% #2 - 35% #3 - 50% #4 - 70% Each event is counted separately. On average, how many events will happen? I could write a simulation program to tell me, but I'd rather know the math. [/ QUOTE ] 0.25 + 0.35 + 0.5 + 0.7 = 1.8. This is always true, regardless of whether the events are independent. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Table VPIP to Seen Flop %, math question.
I figured it out while sleeping.
A better stat than table VPIP might be: 1-(table fold flop%), which should provide a table seen flop %. Thanks! |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Table VPIP to Seen Flop %, math question.
[ QUOTE ]
Not considering the blinds. For example, the table VPIP outside the blinds is 25%, and I'm on the button. There's 7 players to act before me, so there's about an 86% chance that at least one person will come into the pot behind me [1-(1-.25)^7]. How do I figure out the probability of one player coming in behind me, or all seven coming in? [/ QUOTE ] Assuming that they are independent (as you did with [1-(1-.25)^7] ), the probability that exactly 1 comes in is C(7,1)*(0.25)*(0.75)^6 =~ 31.1%, and the probability that all 7 come in is (0.25)^7 =~ 0.0061%. |
|
|