Where was the fold?

[molawn2mo]

5/10 full

Villain is SLA, other SLP

Dealt to hero [ Jh, Js ]

Utg calls, 2 folds, I raise, fold, Villain 3 bets, fold, call, call, I think and then cap, 4 calls

Flop [ 4s, 5d, 2d ]
3 checks, I bet, villain raises, 2 calls, I 3bet, Villain caps, 2 calls and I call.

Turn : [ 8d ]
2 checks, I bet, villain raises, 1 call, I call.

River [ Th ]
payme447 checks.
alexzachabby checks.
DL206 checks.

[W. Deranged]

Mo-

1. Be careful about how you title your post, and about giving river action, because it will tend to distort the opinions of people replying.

2. This is kind of an interesting hand in my opinion because it involves weighing two different considerations in determing the correct line of play (particularly on the turn):

-The likelihood that you are behind and have very few outs to improve, and hence will be putting in a lot of money with little chance to win.

-The need to aggressively defend a marginal hand that may be best.

The following are very key factors to consider:

-Villain is aggressive.
-Four players see the turn.
-The pot is huge (~18 BB at the turn).

From what I can tell, this is a situation where the pot is simply so big that you really must do whatever is necessary to win it, because if a big bet or two can increase your chance of being ahead at showdown it is very worth it to invest those bets.

I personally don't think against an aggressive opponent in such a huge pot folding here is really a great option at any point. Hence, we want to develop a line that is most likely to protect our hand (likely by getting one or two of the donkish callers to fold the turn) and get the most money in where we conceivably will have the highest average equity edge.

Which leads me to my line:

1. Pre-flop cap is fine against that many players.

2. Lead the flop, but DO NOT THREE-BET when raised behind you. The idea is to wait until the turn to:

-Protect your hands (you'd like to encourage single-overcard and gutshot type hands to fold the turn; note there is NO way to protect your hand against any kind of flush draw at any point)

-Push an equity edge that is likely to be bigger. With that in mind:

3. Donk-bet the turn if it is not a likely overcard (A or probably K) and HOPE to get RAISED. Given the way villain has played, he is likely to raise your turn bet with a bunch of different things, including hands like 99, 10, 10, etc... that you are beating. If a new player comes alive when the diamonds come, you may have to give up, but be careful given the pot size. Folding a winner here would be awful.

Once you get to the river the idea is simply to showdown as cheaply as possible. If you bet the turn and are not raised consider value-betting.


I'm interested to hear further discussion of this hand because I think there are some interesting subtleties here.

[molawn2mo]

Deranged:

Your analysis is right on. There is a dual evaluation here and I made that decision by capping the flop and trying to fold out what I could. I, when compared with the majority of reasonably knowlegable posters here, consider myself weak/tight. This was a conscious attempt to shed that mindset.

In reality, I thought I was beaten on the flop and I knew I was beaten when the turn was raised and called. But at that point I had sufficient odds to hit the set. So blah blah.

Now... there was pretty much only 1 scenario that would have allowed me to aggro my way in here and that is:

1. villain is on overs since if he has QQ,KK,AA I am drawing to 2 outs at best given the flushie situation.
2. LPPs are timid enough to fold QQ,KK; they are never folding AA. When they are not folded out on the turn it could be apparent that he/they are on big PP or flushie draw.

My gut tells me that I was spewing but I thought that I could get some feedback from the more aggro of us.

[Azhrarn]

[ QUOTE ]
In reality, I thought I was beaten on the flop and I knew I was beaten when the turn was raised and called. But at that point I had sufficient odds to hit the set. So blah blah.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this was the only reason you called the turn raise, you shouldn't have. You didn't have odds to hit your set, because you can't count the Jd as an out here.

As for the rest, I like the pf cap. I don't like the flop 3-bet. Considering the board and the number of callers, it's best to call the flop raise and reeveluate on the turn. Given the turn card, whether to lead out or check-call is opponent specific. Against an overagressive opponent (one who will raise for you with 99, TT, or overcards with a high single diamond), I like the bet.

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]

As for the rest, I like the pf cap. I don't like the flop 3-bet. Considering the board and the number of callers, it's best to call the flop raise and reeveluate on the turn. Given the turn card, whether to lead out or check-call is opponent specific. Against an overagressive opponent (one who will raise for you with 99, TT, or overcards with a high single diamond), I like the bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting.. so you would give up trying to fold out the LPPs that early. My 3 bet was made with the intention and expectation that Villain would cap and face the LPPs with calling 2 cold. Furthermore, the LPPs ought have realized that they quite likely would be faced with similar choices on the turn and river.

As I said earlier, to the extent that Villain had big PP... this line or any line, for that matter, seemed doomed to failure.

Backing off on the flop 3 bet would seem to be consistant with not capping preflop.

[Azhrarn]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting.. so you would give up trying to fold out the LPPs that early. My 3 bet was made with the intention and expectation that Villain would cap and face the LPPs with calling 2 cold. Furthermore, the LPPs ought have realized that they quite likely would be faced with similar choices on the turn and river.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, once players, especially loose players, call two cold, they're not going to fold that round for another two. They want to see the next card. Also, your hand is vulnerable, even if it is the best right now. Your equity can change a lot, up or down, on the turn card.

Then, if you think there's still a decent chance you're ahead on the turn, you can lead again and hope your overagressive opponent does what he does best.

[ QUOTE ]
Backing off on the flop 3 bet would seem to be consistant with not capping preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not necessarily. Yes, you have an overpair, but the flop is coordinated, and multiple limpers like their hand enough to call two cold on the flop. You'll often find yourself in a more favorable position on the flop. This is a tricky situation, despite your overpair.

[ QUOTE ]
As I said earlier, to the extent that Villain had big PP... this line or any line, for that matter, seemed doomed to failure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. Sometimes you just get screwed. But even if he had a bigger pair this time, you could easily have still been a favorite against his 3-betting range pre-flop.

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In reality, I thought I was beaten on the flop and I knew I was beaten when the turn was raised and called. But at that point I had sufficient odds to hit the set. So blah blah.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this was the only reason you called the turn raise, you shouldn't have. You didn't have odds to hit your set, because you can't count the Jd as an out here.

As for the rest, I like the pf cap. I don't like the flop 3-bet. Considering the board and the number of callers, it's best to call the flop raise and reeveluate on the turn. Given the turn card, whether to lead out or check-call is opponent specific. Against an overagressive opponent (one who will raise for you with 99, TT, or overcards with a high single diamond), I like the bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not a big fan of this play in a multiway pot.

[callmedonnie]

Great post. That sounds perfect to me. Why don't I get these types of responses?

Just kidding, I hope to post a winner or two tonight.

[J. Sawyer]

I think the cap preflop is a little much.

Your obviously up against AA-QQ, so. I think you can dump it on the turn, and even 1 of your 2 outs probably doesnt count since it would put 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]'s on the board.

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the cap preflop is a little much.

Your obviously up against AA-QQ, so. I think you can dump it on the turn, and even 1 of your 2 outs probably doesnt count since it would put 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]'s on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

The preflop cap was the decision in this hand. That which followed was a continuation of that decision. You very well may be right about it being too much and that is why I wanted others opinions.

As played, if I am up against JJ, QQ or even KK (by the LPP), I beleive that it may have been worth going aggro for.

Thanks.