QQ, hand protection, and being the calling station

[topspin]

Obviously my first hand at table. Interested in comments on flop and turn play.

On the flop, with the pot being enormous and my relative position to the aggressor being quite good, I decide to call and raise a safe turn card. Then UTG foils my ploy by leading the turn and trapping the field. In addition, the board is scary and I would like to show down my hand in this giant pot.

Anyone find a raise anywhere in this hand?

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) handconverter.com

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $1.50. Hero posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 (poster) calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero (poster) 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (22 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, MP3 folds, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (14 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls ...

[ArturiusX]

Raise the flop for value [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Bodhi]

I was going to say the same thing because very few cards can come to beat QQ, but this example is straight out of SSHE, is it not? After a little hemming and hawing I can see the value in waiting to raise the turn (it's just that the real problem is depending on the same player to bet again on the turn).

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
I was going to say the same thing because very few cards can come to beat QQ, but this example is straight out of SSHE, is it not? After a little hemming and hawing I can see the value in waiting to raise the turn (it's just that the real problem is depending on the same player to bet again on the turn).

[/ QUOTE ]

SSHE also talks about how sometimes you can't protect your hand at all, and you can only value bet. This is one of those situations. Once the pot reaches these kinds of odds, just get in as many bets as you can.

[thesharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was going to say the same thing because very few cards can come to beat QQ, but this example is straight out of SSHE, is it not? After a little hemming and hawing I can see the value in waiting to raise the turn (it's just that the real problem is depending on the same player to bet again on the turn).

[/ QUOTE ]

SSHE also talks about how sometimes you can't protect your hand at all, and you can only value bet. This is one of those situations. Once the pot reaches these kinds of odds, just get in as many bets as you can.

[/ QUOTE ]

The hand they talk about waiting for the turn to raise has the same number of bets in it as this pot, so what you're saying about the pot being too big is wrong. We can cut down gutshot and overcard outs considerably on the turn, the question is whether MP2 will lead again, and whether there's more value in raising for value than trying to protect.

The hand they talk about waiting for the turn to raise also only had 1 overcard that could beat it, although the flop was 2 suited and 2 cards were connected which made draws more likely.

[Eeegah]

We're talking about the "Two Overpair Hands" section, correct? In the hand they give, the board is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. The first example is with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img](raise) and then T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (call) there's a lot more than 1 possible overcard there! (Though I'd still bet out because I suck [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] )

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
I was going to say the same thing because very few cards can come to beat QQ, but this example is straight out of SSHE, is it not? After a little hemming and hawing I can see the value in waiting to raise the turn (it's just that the real problem is depending on the same player to bet again on the turn).

[/ QUOTE ]

See, I debated posting this hand in 2 parts, because I think that seeing the turn action may be influencing people's decisions. But it was late, I wanted to go to sleep soon, and I didn't want to stay up an extra hour or two before posting the interesting part of the hand which I think is the turn.

To you and all those who advocate making a flop raise: there is no question that there is value in a flop raise. However, if we raise this flop, people are getting immediate odds of 1:13 to call. The odds go up even more with every cold-caller. With these odds, it is correct for them to call with virtually anything -- a gutshot, a pair of 8's, a couple of broadways, etc. When the pot is this big, you would really prefer that they fold, but there is no way to accomplish this on the flop.

By calling the flop, assuming a blank falls and we get to raise the turn, we're now offering odds of 1:9, plus people only have 1 card left to outdraw us. It is now a mistake for many hands to call. Furthermore, even if they do call, we're now getting them to put in 2BB when they're a big dog versus 2SB when they're a smaller one. From a value perspective this is compelling also.

The majority of the time that a safe card falls, MP2 is going to bet. (It would be a very poor move for someone with AK or AQ unimproved to bet into this huge pot on the flop; his fold equity is virtually zero.) As I said, the interesting part is what to do once a non-safe card falls on the turn and someone else wakes up. Note that UTG is correct to bet if he really did hit a straight or something similar, since a check-raise here would likely face the field with 2 given that the aggressor from the previous street was in late position.

[Bodhi]

You have to raise this. So what if you didn't get to make the field face two cold? Raise this for value, please!

[arsixsixwy]

I guess I don't really see what you're protecting your hand from on the flop. I guess there are some straight possibilities out there, but you aren't able to protect your hand against the open-ended draws and the gutshots are probably unfoldable as well, especially with their implied odds. I think you need to raise the flop for value and to try to drive out the overcards, backdoor flushes, and maybe underpairs.

[aK13]

This is not the time to wait for the turn to raise to protect.

With 22 bets in the flop, almost nobody is folding, so the turn is going to be about 16BBs, which is giving gutshots still pretty ample implied odds to draw against this many people -- can't protect, so raise for value.