On value betting the river

topspin · #1 07-23-2005, 02:37 PM

Been sitting at the table for about 3 orbits now. Table has been pretty tight preflop and weak-tight postflop -- I've taken down a 12BB pot without a showdown where multiple bets have gone in on each street and yet everyone folds to a single river bet.

Villain is fairly loose preflop but is raising with reasonable frequency, probably 7-8% of his hands. Postflop he is capable of being the first person to bet but I haven't yet seen him go to war with anyone yet.

By the river, what range of hands do you put him on? What's our river action?

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) handconverter.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, 4 folds, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, MP1 folds, SB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (8.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ...

MrWookie47 · #2 07-23-2005, 02:44 PM

You know, you may just have a case for checking here.

POKhER · #3 07-23-2005, 02:47 PM

Check, I think he has you on AA/KK/QQ so your more likly to profit by checking in the long run.

If he has two pair you lose 1 bet,
If he has a A, you lose 2bets to a check raise,
if he has 1 pair, You gain 1 bet.

Lose 3, Gain 1 by betting i reckon.
Check [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

einbert · #4 07-23-2005, 02:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If he has a A, you lose 2bets to a check raise,

[/ QUOTE ]

In this particular game, is folding to a river checkraise against the rules?

istewart · #5 07-23-2005, 02:57 PM

JJ/QQ seem like they might cap preflop but 1/2 is very passive preflop. AT/KT/QT/JT, if he's capable of raising these, are plausible. AT just got there of course.

But, I can't see many other hands that he has. Would he really bet the flop with AQ/AJ?

Wacken · #6 07-23-2005, 03:15 PM

Being on the small blind with 1 called before him, i think his preflop raise could mean a mid pocket pair hoping for you to fold and him being heads up.
he could also raise with AK, AQ or something alike of course.
I would not expect the SB raise with any hand that contains a 6 or 9 other than a pocket pair in these. I don't think he has flopped trips as then he'd probably raise your turn bet i think.
AT is possible, but i would expect a little more agressin from him.

I expect a mid pair that missed the flop.

Aaron W. · #7 07-23-2005, 03:17 PM

7-8 PFR raises something like AA-TT, AK-AQ, KQs from the small blind. The question is whether you think he can fire into the pot with AK-AQ after you were the 3-bettor. My guess would be that he probably won't. If he could do that, then he could probably find a 3-bet with QQ or JJ. Since he didn't 3-bet those hands, he probably won't bet AK-AQ UI. So you're likely against a scared QQ or JJ with an outside chance of a really weak AA.

I like a bet here, expecting to get paid off and never expecting a river check-raise. If he does check-raise the river, then you know you're screwed by TT or the really weak AA mentioned above.

Wacken · #8 07-23-2005, 03:20 PM

With only 1 called b4 him, isn't it completely logical to raise with almost any pair ?

Aaron W. · #9 07-23-2005, 03:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With only 1 called b4 him, isn't it completely logical to raise with almost any pair ?

[/ QUOTE ]

There's certainly nothing wrong with raising any pair most of the time, but not every player plays that way. If somebody has a 7-8 PFR, most likely, they *AREN'T* making those raises. Find a 10-12 PFR, and you can expect the isolation raise far more often.

@bsolute_luck · #10 07-23-2005, 03:18 PM

i'd have to bet.