|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
What odds should I get on this prop bet? (Hole in One)
One Attempt
Hole-in-One - Par 3 - 140 yards I shoot in the low 80's on average and play twice a week in the summer. If it matters, I'm only betting $1 per attempt. |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: What odds should I get on this prop bet? (Hole in One)
100:1
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: What odds should I get on this prop bet? (Hole in One)
[ QUOTE ]
100:1 [/ QUOTE ] I was thinking that at first, but there's really no way that's close to +EV. To the OP: How many holes-in-one have you had in your life? Approximately how many par 3s have you played in your life? |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: What odds should I get on this prop bet? (Hole in One)
I thought about posting that but didn't want to skew the results. There's no way that the sample size is significant.
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: What odds should I get on this prop bet? (Hole in One)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 100:1 [/ QUOTE ] I was thinking that at first, but there's really no way that's close to +EV. [/ QUOTE ] While maybe far off from real +EV in reality, with such a small amount staked (he said $1 bet), I don't really see why this is so -EV. I assume anyone here can wipe their ass with a dollar bill and not think twice about wasting a buck. I don't care if Golf Digest says it's 5000:1, there's no way in hell I'd give anyone that kind of odds on a $1 bet. |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: What odds should I get on this prop bet? (Hole in One)
I would never want to fade this bet at anywhere close to true odds. The $1 that can win means nothing while the $10K will sting a little. I guess I would take the bet though with much lower odds - 1000 to 1 maybe.
|
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: What odds should I get on this prop bet? (Hole in One)
[ QUOTE ]
I would never want to fade this bet at anywhere close to true odds. The $1 that can win means nothing while the $10K will sting a little. I guess I would take the bet though with much lower odds - 1000 to 1 maybe. [/ QUOTE ] Several people have said this and I agree. I don't think there are many people on this forum who would give me 1,000 to 1. |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: What odds should I get on this prop bet? (Hole in One)
[ QUOTE ]
100:1 [/ QUOTE ] youhardlyknowgolf |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: What odds should I get on this prop bet? (Hole in One)
anything less than 10000-1 is definitely -EV
|
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Re: What odds should I get on this prop bet? (Hole in One)
[ QUOTE ]
anything less than 10000-1 is definitely -EV [/ QUOTE ] If I hit 10,000 shots I would make way more than 1. |
|
|