Long and heavy poker content

[Exsubmariner]

I am not too sure which forum to post this in. I have come to a crossroads in my play and I have been hanging out here for a couple of months. I am faced with a unique set of problems and I think there are probably a couple hundred people out there who are wearing the same shoes. I have tried to contact some of the seasoned posters on 2+2 and ask them for advice, but have found 1) they don't give a sh!t enough to respond, 2) they give some lame advice like "...duh...Read SSHE" or 3) they defer and say they don't have enough experience/knowledge to answer my concerns. 4) They say "figure it out yourself." The latest Jacka$$ told me not to PM poker content. He must have been one of the forum police.
Some collection of Gurus.
I am posting this thread in hopes of generating some frank discussion amoung those, who like me, what to grow in their knowledge of the game but are faced with the same grim meathook realities that I have encountered. Here are some examples of what I have found:
1) After 200K hands at Party 1/2 and 1/2 6 max, I made as much in rakeback as I did from playing the game.
2) Following the starting hand charts in SSHE will not make you a TAG (eagle or money bag in PT). At best, you will have a 20-23% VP$IP. In order to get that down, you need to very carfully select the situations in which you play particular types of hands and you find the right conditions come along pretty infrequently.
If you play too tight for your game you will be missing out on some profit opportunity. If you play too loose, you give up some of the profit you made from loosening up.
3)A lot of the Advice in SSHE goes out the window as soon as your opponent has half a brain about odds and outs. This was a frequent critism of the book when it came out and I am moving into games where I find it to be true.
4) the onine poker landscape is changing. The games are getting tighter, players are getting smarter, pots are getting smaller and win rate is dropping. I think this trend is true no matter where you are or what level you play at. I believe this is evidenced by Party's recent addition of 6 max tables on most of their levels. I think it shows they are getting less rake. Lack of action equals lack of rake.
5) There is no 2+2er out there who has 900K in bankroll & 24 tables 30/60 and beats it for 9BB/100 hands.
6) There are dimensions of poker that are beyond simple mathematics. Even in limit, if you pick the right player you can raise him into folding when you have rags. If you choose the wrong player or he has the hand you are representing, this can be disasterous. Plus, you can't bluff all the time. If you get caught at it more than once, you're sunk. On the flip side, if people see you check raise to much they will be afraid to bet after you check and are likely to fold if you checkraise them if they do.
This faces me with the following:
1) Reading players is becoming more and more important and that is hard to do over the internet (yes I played B&M before I played on line).
2)The kind of attention needed to play on the required level cannot be successfully divided amoung four tables. You cannot play mechanically above the very lowest levels and expect to win very much.
3) Most long term players will tell you that you are likely to go broke at some point in the future no matter how good you think you are. I am far from being broke now, in fact, I think I've done rather well considering the stakes I play, but I don't want to loose the thousands and thousands I have accumulated at this point because the fish pond has dried up and the rake and tough opponents are going to take it all if I keep going.

So, that's all I can get out for now. There is a certain level of frustration that I have and at this point don't exactly have a rosey and enthusiastic outlook on things. I am trying to balance the effort I have to put forward with the potential reward, only, I don't know what that reward may be as those who have been there or are there right now don't want to say or are too embarrassed to say.
The decision boils down to going back down in level to where I know I can make money, becoming a ten game rock or a 6 max specialist, switching to NL where I can make bets which give punishing odds to incorrect draws, becoming a MTT or SNG specialist, or hanging it up for a while until the next online boom (meantime expanding my reading beyond the dozen or so 2+2 books I have).
Back to the attitude, now. If you are not going to contribute anything beyond "dude you need to read more books because you obviously aren't as good as me and I made 6BB/100 hands over 20K hands so I must be better than you" I don't want to hear it. I don't care what you think your long term win rate is. I only want to hear from those who have enough experience to know. (see Homers postings about confidence intervals if you have questions whether or not you know). I will be more than willing to have discussions beyond the forum if you don't want to let certain things be publically known. This is not exactly stuff you can talk about with just anybody you know, you have to reach out into the wider world and that is what I am attempting here. Hopefully someone out there will read this and provide some good discussion and advice for the hundreds of us who read these boards and am at the same point I am.

[mantasm]

You're still making plays that are mathematically based even though you're not just doing something like calling when you have odds or pumping the pot for value.

An example: you raise from late position with QT or something like that. The BB calls then leads on the flop. You call. You pick up an OESD on the turn, he leads again, the pot is 4.2BB. You think that if you raise he'll fold 40% of the time. You can evaluate EV for raising or calling here. On the river you don't improve. You have queen high and he checks to you. The pot is 6BB. You think he'll fold 35% of the time. You think your hand is good 20% of the time. You can evaluate the EV of checking behind or betting. Everything is still a math problem, you just have more variables you need to consider when you're playing in small pots like this. Because you weren't doing much bluffing back at .5/1, correctly. If you get caught bluffing, you have to adjust your variables. The math isn't something you can do in it's entirety at the table, so take some time to think about it away from the table. I hope this helps even though it's sort of poorly thought out. And you can PM me.

[Exsubmariner]

Nope, that made perfect sense. Good Food for thought, Thanks.

[Paxosmotic]

I'll try replying point by point.

First, I would say don't get too upset with the poker gurus. A lot of posters have a very public presence on these forums and are thus sought out for help by everyone. They must balance their desire to help new players improve with their own improvement. It's not right on your part to hold better players responsible for helping you, but I think you already know that.

To your numbered list, I will say this.

1) While it's impossible to determine what is causing you to breakeven, a few of the common mistakes around here are cold calling too many raises preflop and not protecting your hand well enough post flop. It's not an answer you want to hear, but revisit those specific sections in SSHE, apply the concepts, then post hands here. EV : .3bb/100

2) The starting hand charts in SSHE are not aggressive enough. Raise more preflop, beware of cold calling raises like I mentioned above, and be aware of who is left to act. Every preflop situation is different and a hand can change from a call to a fold very easily based on table texture.

3) The concepts that SSHE teaches are universal, you just might not use them as frequently in higher limits. Betting marginal hands for value, for example, is rarely going to be used in higher limits, but it's still a fundamental tenant of good poker.

4) I disagree.

5) Irrelevant. A few of us have enormous penises though.

6) Don't bluff a calling station. Don't check-raise a maniac.

1a) Reading players is easy. Pay attention to what they show down. Open up the hand history and see what they mucked. Did he just cold call with K4o preflop? Loose. He bet the flop into 4 players when he flopped bottom pair? Aggressive. See what I did there?

2a) It can. We do it.

3a) Apocryphal.

Sorry that you're frustrated. It seems misplaced. There are a lot of long term winners on this forum, most of whom are the very people you're talking about. Ask yourself why you're frustrated with winning players? Is it because you're not? Then ask yourself why they are and you're not. Is it intelligence? Probably not. It's just a card game. Is it discipline? Ahh, now we're on to something. Have you put the time in to understand this game? Your post indicates you haven't. You don't really seem too comfortable with the swings of the game. I think you should read Dr Al's book on the Psychology of Poker. It was the biggest help in turning me from a break even player to a short term winner.

[Exsubmariner]

Thanks for the response.
I will revisit Psychology of Poker, perhaps I did not have enough experience the first time I read it and missed some insights I shouldn't have.
As far as time at the game goes, I can look back on at least 3 years of experience between B&M when I started playing and online low limit experience...I have about 300K in databased hands. If that doesn't quite qualify, that's ok. I must need more years.
X

[Lost Wages]

[ QUOTE ]
Betting marginal hands for value, for example, is rarely going to be used in higher limits

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, the opposite is true. At low limits you can win simply by playing tight/aggressive/straight forward and letting your poor playing opponents blunder away their chips. At higher limits, there are relatively less poor opponents and you have to look elsewhere. Thin value betting is one of the skills that seperates experts from also ran's.

Lost Wages

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
1) After 200K hands at Party 1/2 and 1/2 6 max, I made as much in rakeback as I did from playing the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep working on your game. Rake kills you at 1/2, also.

[ QUOTE ]
2) Following the starting hand charts in SSHE will not make you a TAG (eagle or money bag in PT). At best, you will have a 20-23% VP$IP. In order to get that down, you need to very carfully select the situations in which you play particular types of hands and you find the right conditions come along pretty infrequently.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe the tight games chart may be more applicable and will lower your VPIP to TAG "standards." I don't think this is optimal, some do. Also, using a hand chart without understanding the concepts behind it is not something people should still be doing after 200k hands.

[ QUOTE ]
3)A lot of the Advice in SSHE goes out the window as soon as your opponent has half a brain about odds and outs. This was a frequent critism of the book when it came out and I am moving into games where I find it to be true.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't find this to be at all true at 3/6, full or 6-max.

[ QUOTE ]
4) the onine poker landscape is changing. The games are getting tighter, players are getting smarter, pots are getting smaller and win rate is dropping. I think this trend is true no matter where you are or what level you play at. I believe this is evidenced by Party's recent addition of 6 max tables on most of their levels. I think it shows they are getting less rake. Lack of action equals lack of rake.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. I don't think the addition means they're hurting, just that they thought they could generate more income (via new players or more rake from the same players) by adding the product.

2. The games may be changing, but that doesn't make them unprofitable or even only marginally profitable. I don't see that happening for at least 12-18 months.

[ QUOTE ]
5) There is no 2+2er out there who has 900K in bankroll & 24 tables 30/60 and beats it for 9BB/100 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you, Captain Obvious.

[ QUOTE ]
6) There are dimensions of poker that are beyond simple mathematics.

[/ QUOTE ]

At lower levels, this is only marginally important. As you move up, it becomes almost all that your winrate comes from - exploiting harder to read / better players.

[ QUOTE ]
This faces me with the following:
1) Reading players is becoming more and more important and that is hard to do over the internet (yes I played B&M before I played on line).

[/ QUOTE ]

It is harder, but it's still not that hard, as internet players are often more aggressive and will better define their hands to you.

[ QUOTE ]
2)The kind of attention needed to play on the required level cannot be successfully divided amoung four tables. You cannot play mechanically above the very lowest levels and expect to win very much.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is still pretty untrue in my experience (4 tables 3/6)

[ QUOTE ]
3) Most long term players will tell you that you are likely to go broke at some point in the future no matter how good you think you are.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've never heard that, and i'll never go broke playing poker. Bankroll management is key in poker.

Sorry people wouldn't respond to you, or responded in a way not to your liking, but this post is pretty ho-hum.

-d

[Exsubmariner]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe the tight games chart may be more applicable and will lower your VPIP to TAG "standards." I don't think this is optimal, some do. Also, using a hand chart without understanding the concepts behind it is not something people should still be doing after 200k hands.


[/ QUOTE ]
I rarely need it, but have it posted at my desk to reference for the marginal situations. I usually fail conservative and fold. Out of curiousity, I don't think that the TAG "standard" is optimal either, I am curious to know why you say that.
I will work on making not so ho hum postings. Thanks for your response.
X

[meep_42]

Don't worry, I doubt I have (m)any non-ho-hum posts.

I say that the "standard" 17-19 VPIP isn't optimal because i've been successful above that and don't think the situations i've put myself in doing it are right on the razor's edge of neutral EV. It's just my gut feeling and experience.

-d

[sy_or_bust]

Just wanted to add my support for the 20-22 VP$IP camp.