don't be dumb like me

mr pink · #1 07-18-2005, 09:14 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (14.33 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

raise the flop here and hope mp1 3-bets to squeeze out mp2?

Turn: (11.66 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, MP2 calls, Hero caps, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

standard i assume.

River: (23.66 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 bets, MP2 folds, Hero raises,

how retarded is this?

DemonDeac · #2 07-18-2005, 09:20 PM

nice catch on the turn
i prolly play it the same
ur gonna just call a 3-bet on the river right? or are u capping?

cold_cash · #3 07-18-2005, 09:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
nice catch on the turn
i prolly play it the same
ur gonna just call a 3-bet on the river right? or are u capping?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he wants to take back that first river raise.

DemonDeac · #4 07-18-2005, 09:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
nice catch on the turn
i prolly play it the same
ur gonna just call a 3-bet on the river right? or are u capping?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he wants to take back that first river raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

so do i, but i cant see anyone can just calling the river even though villain did lead the river. especially barring reads.

TripleH68 · #5 07-18-2005, 09:23 PM

So did he have AA or KK?

From the title I am guessing KK. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Nick C · #6 07-18-2005, 09:30 PM

These hands are tough.

Anyway, I think the flop raise is possibly for value, but I doubt MP1 will both have and 3-bet JJ/TT often enough to protect your hand in any meaningful way. If he 3-bets AK (I doubt he will), then there aren't any unique overcards that MP2 could have that you need to worry about anyway.

However, I think what MP2 is quite likely to have is set outs. And I doubt he's dropping, say, A9 or JT, no matter what you do.

Anyway, I think the flop raise is all right.

On the river, the math tells us MP1 will have AA (6 combos) twice as often as KK (3 combos). The fact that he was willing to 3-bet the turn (when we know he couldn't possibly be best) pushes up the likelihood for AA a little, I think. The fact that he's firing into a queen and king on the river after all the strength you've shown pushes up the likelihood for KK at bit.

We can't completely rule out 88/77 (in fact, based on postflop, those hands seem kind of likely).

I don't know. Raising the river seems okay to me. I would probably just call a 3-bet, though.

mr pink · #7 07-18-2005, 09:36 PM

yeah, pretty much my thoughts too. but then again, he's gotta be thinking "well, he's got either AA, KK, or QQ" at this point too.

Emmitt2222 · #8 07-18-2005, 09:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
he's gotta be thinking "well, he's got either AA, KK, or QQ" at this point too.

[/ QUOTE ]

You didn't give a read. I'm assuming that means he is an unknown in which case you can not assume that he is thinking that logically at all. I see 88, 77 and AA here [or even some crazy other crap] here often enough. You sound results oriented here. Nick did some good math to show you should raise/call 3bet.

mr pink · #9 07-18-2005, 09:43 PM

yeah but you're risking 2 bets to win 1 here, and i'm not giving an unknown credit for being a subhuman retard either that can't think at all. even the biggest fish start thinking AA KK QQ after you cap preflop. i treat an unknown as typical until he's done something that proves otherwise and a typical opponent is at least thinking somewhat about what you have.

mr pink · #10 07-18-2005, 10:29 PM

i forgot to mention that just because bayesian analysis gives us the 2 to 1 chance that he has AA and not KK, i don't think you have the 67% you need in order to raise the river here because of the fact that he bet.