Micro Limit Math Thread

Nfinity · #1 07-18-2005, 04:18 PM

OK I really think we need this. This being the beginners forum(sort of) and all, I'm damn near positive there are some people who don't get some of the math. What I want is for anyone with any question at all to post it here, and hopefully our more experienced posters will swoop in and give the right answers. Don't be shy.

Try and quote whatever question your answering, that way we know what it's in reference to.

I'll kick it off with a question of my own:

Earlier this week this hand was posted:

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO (poster) calls, 3 folds.

Flop: (9.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, CO folds.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero ???

And someone recommended betting out would give you fold equity.

I'm not sure if I grasp that concept. I'm thinking its along the lines of getting raised, and having opponents drop, so now we are having to call a bet, when our equity in the pot is less than that, so we should fold.

Am I correct on that?

Bodhi · #2 07-18-2005, 04:22 PM

Fold equity is the % of the times you bet and your opponent folds x the size of the pot.

If your fold equity is greater than the size of your bet, then you should bet.

I think it's a lot easier to figure this out heads up.

In the example given, you don't have much fold equity vs. 3 players who called on the flop.

MrWookie47 · #3 07-18-2005, 04:36 PM

Bodhi is correct in his definition of fold equity, but I also thinks he underestimates hero's fold equity here. It's a drawless, paired flop. It is very likely to have missed everyone. I'd definitely bet here and see who gives up. I think you should check the turn and see what happens, though, since you got a family of callers.

deception5 · #4 07-18-2005, 04:39 PM

Only two players called the flop bet. FWIW I would bet this turn every time, people will call that flop with almost any 2 so there's a good chance you are ahead (and possibly dominating at least one of them).

Bodhi · #5 07-18-2005, 04:40 PM

Yeah I misread that. Vs only 2 players fold equity is significantly higher here.

kapw7 · #6 07-18-2005, 04:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]

If your fold equity is greater than the size of your bet, then you should bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
That doesn't sound entirely correct. You can sometimes win even if they don't both fold b/c you already have the best hand or you draw to your overcards. You need to calculate your actual hand equity plus fold equity and this gives a total equity that has to be greater than the size of the bet. However I am not sure of the exact mathematics here.

MrWookie47 · #7 07-18-2005, 05:41 PM

kapw7: You're mostly correct. You should bet based on fold equity if your fold equity is larger than the size of the bet. You should bet or raise based on your "best hand equity" if you think your equity in the pot is larger than 1/(number of players), your "fair share equity." If you think think you have some fold equity, but you might have a deficiency in your best hand equity, then you need to compare your fold equity with the amount you're paying by betting with a deficiency of best hand equity. Your fold equity needs to be 1 full bet to be +EV if your best hand equity is zero (a pure bluff), but it can be a fraction of a bet if there's still a reasonable chance that your hand will win at showdown. This is the essence of semibluffing.

d5: Yeah, I misread the action, too. Against two players, there's still a reasonable chance that you not only have the best hand, but also that they'll fold. I bet the turn, too, but that's the last money I'm putting into the pot UI.

cold_cash · #8 07-18-2005, 04:50 PM

I think I'm going to have nightmares about this hand.

I don't want to hijack your thread, but I just wanted to pipe up and say that along with your fold equity you also have a very good chance of having the best hand with this board. (As the Wookie already talked about.)

Like I said in the other thread, this is a pretty good flop for AQ.

We have to be aware of what kind of players our opponents are, however. Against many players your fold equity is always zero. (But that doesn't necessarily make betting this flop incorrect, even if you're up against someone like that. Firing 3 barrels unimproved is a different story though.)

Nfinity · #9 07-18-2005, 05:31 PM

I didn't want to wax intellectually about this hand, you can do that here.

How exactly do we calculate the % of time opponents will fold?

Rough educated guess?

AASooted · #10 07-18-2005, 05:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How exactly do we calculate the % of time opponents will fold?

Rough educated guess?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just starting to get a feel for this (or maybe I ran into a lot of passive opponents over the weekend), but I think it's mostly an estimate based on reads. The not-so-startling revelation I had this weekend is that I have a whole lot more fold equity when I was the pre-flop raiser than when I just limp in.