QQ - check turn?

Nietzsche · #1 07-18-2005, 11:32 AM

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets

I'm pretty sure this turn bet is not the best play since the pot is so small. Comments?

sam h · #2 07-18-2005, 11:54 AM

I don't see why the size of the pot matters. You should bet because you are likely to have the best hand, your opponent is not going to fold an ace or a hand like JT, and you have a redraw even if he has a king.

Surfbullet · #3 07-18-2005, 11:57 AM

I agree with sam - bet for value. This is no time to get fancy, we've got a very strong hand.

Surf

krishanleong · #4 07-18-2005, 12:00 PM

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I agree with sam - bet for value. This is no time to get fancy, we've got a very strong hand.

Surf

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yup, bet.

Krishan

#5 07-18-2005, 12:07 PM

Yea, I think I check the turn. I can't see betting the turn as for value. He'll check-raise if you're behind and fold if you're ahead. A free card can't really hurt you, but could improve you. Checking the turn may induce a bluff on the river though, gaining a bet you wouldn't have otherwise gotten on the turn.

There's the possibility of a bluff check-raise on the turn from him, or a 2-pair check-raise, but I'd need a read to think I could bet for value on the turn against a tricky player.

Surfbullet · #6 07-18-2005, 12:14 PM

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Yea, I think I check the turn. I can't see betting the turn as for value.

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This is an incorrect assumption. At the 5/10, players will call here with all sorts of made hands. Any Ace, any Queen, possibly even a lone J or T, any 2 pair, and any worse set. You'll often be called by a 9 as well, which you wouldn't have wanted to give a free card to.

Additionally, bluffs on the river will be rare on a board this dangerous, even if we check through the turn.

Surf

#7 07-18-2005, 12:27 PM

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Yea, I think I check the turn. I can't see betting the turn as for value.

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This is an incorrect assumption. At the 5/10, players will call here with all sorts of made hands. Any Ace, any Queen, possibly even a lone J or T, any 2 pair, and any worse set. You'll often be called by a 9 as well, which you wouldn't have wanted to give a free card to.

Additionally, bluffs on the river will be rare on a board this dangerous, even if we check through the turn.

Surf

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Cool, good to know. At 3/6 seems like people still fold right/left on a 4-straight board, at least when it's a face card that would make the straight. It's almost like a Clarkmeister thing, I nearly always bet out on such a board if I'm first to act.

Nietzsche · #8 07-18-2005, 12:36 PM

Giving a free card can work both for and against you here. Some hands that would not call a turn bet will improve but still be second best. These hands will often call (or bluff) on the river because of your weakness on the turn.

Nietzsche · #9 07-18-2005, 12:32 PM

The reason I think checking may have a higher expectation (though I'm not sure) is a combination of the following factors:

1) I may induce a bluff on the river from a hand that would have folded the turn. I gain one bet.
2) I may get called on the river by a relatively weak hand because of my weakness on the turn. A hand that might have folded the turn. I gain one bet.
3) I get a free card in case I'm behind. A king will call and maybe 3-bet the river. The times I'm behind I lose less. If I bet I think I have to call a turn raise and a river bet in case he he has a two pair or a lower set. So in the cases that he has a K I risk losing 3 bets if I bet the turn and only when if I check.

Against:
1) I give him a chance to split the pot if he catches a four outer. The chances of that happening is 9%. Had the pot been bigger it would have made sense to protect it but here it seems better to me to extract a little more from bluffs and worse hands and lose less when behind.
2) An ace or even a T may call both a turn and a river bet giving me two bets as opposed to one bet when I check the turn.

It still seems to me the pros of checking outweigh the cons but I am in no way sure and would like to hear more arguments for either.

Surfbullet · #10 07-18-2005, 12:48 PM

Heya Nietzsche, I think you may be overestimating the # of bluffs you'll get and underestimating the number of calls.

[ QUOTE ]
The reason I think checking may have a higher expectation (though I'm not sure) is a combination of the following factors:

1) I may induce a bluff on the river from a hand that would have folded the turn. I gain one bet.

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This is possible, but very unlikely unless villain is overaggro. This is a scary board and you raised preflop - even the most unobservant players would think twice before bluffing this river.

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2) I may get called on the river by a relatively weak hand because of my weakness on the turn. A hand that might have folded the turn. I gain one bet.

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Often when this happens you will have realistically missed out on an extra bet because he would have called the turn. weak 1 pair hands are more likely to call a turn bet to try and improve.

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3) I get a free card in case I'm behind. A king will call and maybe 3-bet the river. The times I'm behind I lose less. If I bet I think I have to call a turn raise and a river bet in case he he has a two pair or a lower set. So in the cases that he has a K I risk losing 3 bets if I bet the turn and only when if I check.

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He does not often have a King. There is no reason to forgo such a significant edge on the turn - we will be called by so many lesser hands. Sometimes we get c/r'd by a K, but we fill up on the river and get 2-4 more bets in. Sometimes we call and lose. Sometimes we call and win. Be careful about failing to miss value bets because you "might get raised when behind."

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Against:
1) I give him a chance to split the pot if he catches a four outer. The chances of that happening is 9%. Had the pot been bigger it would have made sense to protect it but here it seems better to me to extract a little more from bluffs and worse hands and lose less when behind.

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You're right, the pot size is small so we're not too concerned about a chop.

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2) An ace or even a T may call both a turn and a river bet giving me two bets as opposed to one bet when I check the turn.

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Here's the big thing. An ace will call 2 streets. A Q will call 2 streets. T's may call 2streets. Any 2 pair will call 2 streets (and maybe raise!). TT and JJ will call 2 streets (and raise!) Sometimes you'll bet and 77 will fold, but that happens. A flop call here is usually a piece of the board or a gutshot. A K gutshot just hit his str8, but a J just paired and will likely call. In addition, a 9 will often call with an "OESD." This is a clear bet for value.

The line you took is a good one, but is much more appropriate for a more marginal hand, where a turn bet is close to EV neutral, but we'll often snap off a river bluff. This is especially true against aggressive opponents - don't bother using it against the 50/3/.3 types at the 5/10.

Surf