Call this river?

[nietzreznor]

Pokerstars .25/.50 6max

Villain has around $40, I have him covered. I haven't been at the table too long, so no great reads, though villain seems a bit on the loose side (and not very good).

Preflop: I am button with 88. UTG limps, CO (poster) checks, I raise to $3, only BB calls.

Flop (~$7): 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villain checks, I bet $5, villain calls.
(Not sure if $5 is enough here--in a vacuum I would bet the full pot I think, but I had been raising quite a few hands recently and making continuation bets of about 3/4)

Turn (~$16): 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villain checks, I bet $10

Anyone check behind here? I definitely feared a c/r from a flush, but there was still a straight draw, and I think villain may be calling with TP or something as well.

River (~$35): A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain pushes all-in for ~$23, I...?

Thoughts here: could be a flush, but this does not seem as likely to me. I think most here will c/r turn with the flush. Could be a slowplayed flopped straight, though with a three flush on board you would think the straight would raise at some point. Villain's bet on the ace is weird since it is unlikely to have helped him (could have AQ for 2pr, but if he called this far w/ AQ he had to assume it was already good).

What's your move here? Thoughts?

[deadmoney98]

Is K-10 a possible holding for villain that you considered?

That said, I call here barring a great read.

[nietzreznor]

Yeah, I would say KT is possible. I totally forgot to mention that in my "analysis".
KT was a concern, it seems consistent with how villain plays this hand.

[djoyce003]

I probably call here, but I think this might be a leak in my game. I don't see how you are ahead on that straight/flushy board. I just can't lay the set down here though. I'd be interested to hear how other's play it. You need to be ahead about 1/3 of the time here to make calling ok. I think it's unlikely he called a raise with k 10 unless it was the k 10 of hearts. or something. I do think it's likely he called the raise with AQ or something and now has hit two pair. He played it kind of like someone with a top pair or second pair and got lucky on the river.....of course he also played it like a doofus drawing at a straight that just hit. He could also have something like the naked ace of hearts and was trying to hit the flush, but has now hit top pair. Given all these factors I think you are ahead about the right amount of time to make this call....i'd also take a lot of notes on how the villain played this hand...if he's bad you can probably get your money back later.

[nietzreznor]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's unlikely he called a raise with k 10 unless it was the k 10 of hearts.

[/ QUOTE ]

To be honest, my read on villain wasn't good enough to know for sure if he would call with a hand like this. But he seemed like a standard player for the 6max game, and a lot of players in this game would call with KTo (and much worse), and then proceed to chase.

[ QUOTE ]
I do think it's likely he called the raise with AQ or something and now has hit two pair. He played it kind of like someone with a top pair or second pair and got lucky on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kinda what I was thinking. I really didn't believe he had the flush, since I thought he would either lead out with it or (more likely) c/r the turn. Thus it seems like the A helped him, and if it wasn't KT then something like AQ or

[ QUOTE ]
He could also have something like the naked ace of hearts and was trying to hit the flush, but has now hit top pair

[/ QUOTE ]

[djoyce003]

All I play is 6 max and I don't see too many people calling a bigger than standard raise with k 10 offsuit. I think your raise with 88 is interesting as well. I typically limp in with my pairs and hit a set or fold....I don't typically raise middle pocket pairs. I usually start raising with 10 10.

[nietzreznor]

[ QUOTE ]
All I play is 6 max and I don't see too many people calling a bigger than standard raise with k 10 offsuit. I think your raise with 88 is interesting as well. I typically limp in with my pairs and hit a set or fold....I don't typically raise middle pocket pairs. I usually start raising with 10 10.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I tend to do full ring, but at 6max, esp. with good position, I think mid-pairs can be played a little more aggressively.

Do you think that the raise is too large? My standard is to raise to $2, but with a limper and poster, I kicked it up a bit.

[djoyce003]

nah your raise was ok with the limpers....if you are going to raise it has to be a real one, not a crappy one. What is your plan though if the flop is QJ7 instead of QJ8. I usually just do the limp in thing, no-set no bet rule with medium pocket pairs.

[Rockatansky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's unlikely he called a raise with k 10 unless it was the k 10 of hearts.

[/ QUOTE ]

To be honest, my read on villain wasn't good enough to know for sure if he would call with a hand like this. But he seemed like a standard player for the 6max game, and a lot of players in this game would call with KTo (and much worse), and then proceed to chase.

[ QUOTE ]
I do think it's likely he called the raise with AQ or something and now has hit two pair. He played it kind of like someone with a top pair or second pair and got lucky on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kinda what I was thinking. I really didn't believe he had the flush, since I thought he would either lead out with it or (more likely) c/r the turn. Thus it seems like the A helped him, and if it wasn't KT then something like AQ or

[ QUOTE ]
He could also have something like the naked ace of hearts and was trying to hit the flush, but has now hit top pair

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - K would sort of make sense. A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - 10 would make even more sense, as he would have a double gutter on the flop and a flush draw on the turn.

Unless this guy is a huge calling station, I don't think he'd call your preflop raise as well as both your flop and turn bets with K-10, especially with the three-flush on board. If he did, meet your new best friend [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

That being said, when a Villain wakes up like this OOP on the river, it's almost always at least two pair. Are you ahead 1/3 of the time here? Maybe, but I think it's very close.

I'd fold here. I can't see most people I play against open pushing a straight and flush board with a hand that you beat.

I'd actually put him on a higher set of jacks or queens more often than the flush, and I'd say you're behind more often then 1/3 of the time.

Calling wouldn't be terrible though.