Pushing AK too hard?

xGoreDudex · #1 07-17-2005, 10:22 PM

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 2 folds, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: (5.40 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: (3.70 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (5.70 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero??

Final Pot: 6.70 BB

TBone · #2 07-17-2005, 10:28 PM

Folds.

You've been called on every bet since the flop...your opponent can probably beat ace high.

T

Shillx · #3 07-18-2005, 12:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Folds.

You've been called on every bet since the flop...your opponent can probably beat ace high.

T

[/ QUOTE ]

Looking at hands this way isn't going to get the money. The problem with this analysis is that AK-high beats A LOT of hands...over 28% to be exact, and the pot is laying us a big price.

The thing to look at is what cards hit the turn/river when the flop comes T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. If the turn is the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the river is the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I'm almost certainly going to check and call on the river. A hand like 98 or J9 will almost always bluff the river if the player is bad enough. They absolutely love to bluff in these spots if their hand has no shot (and bluffing too much in these medium sized pots is big time -EV). The problem with this hand is that all of the possible straight draws either got there or paired up latent straight draws. So eventhough a hand like 86 didn't make a straight, it made a pair of eights and that does the job too.

Brad

cold_cash · #4 07-17-2005, 10:29 PM

Folds.

Every draw got there.

aK13 · #5 07-17-2005, 10:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Folds.

Every draw got there.

[/ QUOTE ]

except backdoor clubs.

eviljeff · #6 07-17-2005, 10:40 PM

NEED READS. whether to call or fold totally depends whether villain is passive or bluff happy. lacking reads I fold.

ArturiusX · #7 07-17-2005, 11:54 PM

Look at it this way, not many hands dont beat you. I fold.

TomBrooks · #8 07-18-2005, 06:52 AM

Why call? If you wanted to call, you should have bet out. You already made up your mind when you checked. Hand over.

That being said, check/folding this flop would not have been the worst thing in the world. While you have overs, you have no flush and only a BD straight chance to help.

On the turn, you added a gutshot to your overs, so fire again. There's always the chance of folding middle or bottom pair too.

On the river, it might be worth one more shot to see if you can fold middle pair or worse. Once you check though, your done. You probably don't have the best hand anyway.

Yort Mada · #9 07-18-2005, 07:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why call? If you wanted to call, you should have bet out. You already made up your mind when you checked. Hand over.

That being said, check/folding this flop would not have been the worst thing in the world. While you have overs, you have no flush and only a BD straight chance to help.

On the turn, you added a gutshot to your overs, so fire again. There's always the chance of folding middle or bottom pair too.

On the river, it might be worth one more shot to see if you can fold middle pair or worse. Once you check though, your done. You probably don't have the best hand anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

i've learned (unless noted on a player otherwise) that in this situation you fire the flop, fire the turn, and check fold the river... in my experience they call about 70% of the time on the river anyway. A bet here to me is giving away money.

TomBrooks · #10 07-18-2005, 07:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i've learned (unless noted on a player otherwise) that in this situation you fire the flop, fire the turn, and check fold the river... in my experience they call about 70% of the time on the river anyway. A bet here to me is giving away money.

[/ QUOTE ]
I figure the opponent at this point has at least a pair. I figure there is no way he's folding top pair (or better of course.) If I think he might not have top pair, I look at the size of the pot and decide if I think the chances of folding him are better than the odds the pot is laying me. If I think it is, I bet again. If not, it's check/fold.

For instance, if the pot is 7BB, a bet only has to fold him 1 time in 7 to be +EV. Six times you lose one bet, one time you make seven bets. If he folds more often than 1 in 7, it's gravy.

And as far as autobetting the flop and turn with overs, even AK, if thats what your saying - it's not always a good idea.