Flop and river...

krishanleong · #1 07-17-2005, 06:44 PM

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, MP 3-bets, CO caps, SB calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, MP calls, CO raises, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, MP folds, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (13.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB calls $4 (All-In), Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (15.90 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players, 1 all-in)
Hero checks

What do we think? Flop and river.

Krishan

Alobar · #2 07-17-2005, 06:54 PM

Im undecided on the flop, but I think the river is an easy bet. Youve got all the good clubs so I dont see anyone betting. I think youll see more calls from hands that just cant let go, or middle clubs, than you will some sort of bluffs or weak value bets or something.

imported_ncray · #3 07-17-2005, 06:54 PM

I like the first call on the flop. You goal is to get as much money into the pot as possible, since you have huge equity with the nut flush draw and backdoor straight. Raising might force others out of the pot, and you are quite sure that MP or CO will raise for you. After CO raises, I like your 3-bet. CO and SB will definitely call for 2 more SBs. If you chose to overcall, there's no guarantee that MP will raise, leaving you with maybe 1SB max.

I think I like leading the river here. If CO doesn't have a flush (what flush could he possible have with the A, K, Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] taken given the action), he won't bet with SB still in the pot. Maybe headsup this is a good idea though, to induce a desparation bluff.

NLSoldier · #4 07-17-2005, 06:56 PM

Flop is fine, I don't like the river at all because you have both the A and the Q and the K and T are out there, so the only thing he will bet is probably the Jack and would have to have exactly JJ to have a Jack in his hand given the preflop cap.

sy_or_bust · #5 07-17-2005, 07:03 PM

The flop play looks nice, but I'm not sure what is accomplished by folding MP. You can't clean up outs and you're in bad position. With CO's raise indicating at least a king or strong draw, I don't imagine you have any fold equity worth pursuing either. The 3-bet may still be +EV, especially if MP might call 2. I'm interested in others' thoughts.

And the river...nah. Best read says he has a king, and you have the first and second nut cards, so it'll be very tough for CO to bet and then call a raise with a worse hand. KK/TT would reraise the turn, and JJ butchered the flop. I'm thinking he has a non-flush AK/KQ that will call more often than bet, and rarely bet/call.

ISF · #6 07-17-2005, 07:06 PM

I dont like the flop or the river. On the flop the raise may be slightly +EV on that street, but it gives away your hand and lowerers your EV on future streets. The river I think is really bad you are much more likely to get a call from a pair then a bet.

krishanleong · #7 07-17-2005, 10:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I dont like the flop or the river. On the flop the raise may be slightly +EV on that street, but it gives away your hand and lowerers your EV on future streets. The river I think is really bad you are much more likely to get a call from a pair then a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I sorta disagree. The reason I checked is because ALL (except the J) the clubs are accounted for. I think it's much more likely that this guy was calling down with a pair and will fold the river when the 4th club hits. When I check to him I think I'll get a bluff more often than he'll call with a worse hand. The times I get a crying curiosity call is icing on the cake.

Krishan

ISF · #8 07-17-2005, 11:07 PM

Given that he has called down this far what do you think the odds are that he folds the river. I really doubt its >30% or so. Do you really think he bluffs the same pair 70%? You can change that assumption but I am pretty sure that betting this river is optimal I just dont seem them fold pairs on four flush boards that often and I really doubt he bluffs one he will want a free showdown. Why would a pair bluff? Especially a likely decent pair.

krishanleong · #9 07-17-2005, 11:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Given that he has called down this far what do you think the odds are that he folds the river. I really doubt its >30% or so. Do you really think he bluffs the same pair 70%? You can change that assumption but I am pretty sure that betting this river is optimal I just dont seem them fold pairs on four flush boards that often and I really doubt he bluffs one he will want a free showdown. Why would a pair bluff? Especially a likely decent pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, you win. I think a river bet is correct. I just wanted to explain my thoughts. I didn't really think they are correct. When I thought about it after the hand I agree people will make crying calls with a pair more often than bluff.

Noone even mention the all in guy which make my play even worse. Why would anyone bluff at a protected pot.

Anyway, the results are the guy did bet, I cred, he 3-bet I capped and he turned over 22 for the river set. Nice hand.

Krishan

imported_ncray · #10 07-17-2005, 11:32 PM

I mentioned the all in guy [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]