problem with NL

[mr magoo]

200 NL
I have 150$ and villian got me coverd.
I sit on the button with T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], CO limps in, so do I. Pot 3,5BB
Flop Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3 checks, CO bets 7$, I raise to 30, everyone folds and CO moves all-in, what do I do??

[AllIn3High]

[ QUOTE ]
200 NL
I have 150$ and villian got me coverd.
I sit on the button with T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], CO limps in, so do I. Pot 3,5BB
Flop Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3 checks, CO bets 7$, I raise to 30, everyone folds and CO moves all-in, what do I do??

[/ QUOTE ]

Call.

[torsken]

If we make the assumption that he'll only play back at you like this with a set, then you have 42.1% equity in the pot.

a b c d

303$ * 0.390 - 118$ = 9.5$

a = total pot size if you call
b = your chance of winning the pot if you call
c = how much it cost you to call
d = net EV (call)

If he holds the worst case scenario holding Ah8h it would turn into a roughly zero EV call.

[BirdieLongSocks]

Thanks for the math!

[Komodo]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
If we make the assumption that he'll only play back at you like this with a set, then you have 42.1% equity in the pot.

a b c d

303$ * 0.390 - 118$ = 9.5$

a = total pot size if you call
b = your chance of winning the pot if you call
c = how much it cost you to call
d = net EV (call)

If he holds the worst case scenario holding Ah8h it would turn into a roughly zero EV call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is 118/303=39% the break even number?

[torsken]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If we make the assumption that he'll only play back at you like this with a set, then you have 42.1% equity in the pot.

a b c d

303$ * 0.421 - 118$ = 9.5$

a = total pot size if you call
b = your chance of winning the pot if you call
c = how much it cost you to call
d = net EV (call)

If he holds the worst case scenario holding Ah8h it would turn into a roughly zero EV call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is 118/303=39% the break even number?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes

[BirdieLongSocks]

Can someone explain the math behind this hand, I really need to learn it.

However I think its pretty close, leaning towards a fold.

[mcb]

The math is you are ~55% to make your hand. Call. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Maulik]

count every out that makes you a straight &amp; a flush. divide by the number of remain unseen cards &amp; repeat for the turn. then you either multiply or add the two remaining numbers (you decide).

[subzero]

{First time using pokerstove, so please correct me if I did this wrong.}
Assign a range of hands to the villain and use pokerstove to figure out your chance of winning. Let's say he has a draw to the nut flush, a set, or two pair. I'm not including AK or QQ since he limped:

15,840 games 0.015 secs 1,056,000 games/sec
Board: Qh 9h 6d
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.5581 % 44.56% 00.00% { JhTh }
Hand 2: 55.4419 % 55.44% 00.00% { 99, 66, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, Qc9c, Qc6c, 9c6c }


So we're about a 1.2:1 underdog to the river. The pot is laying you 1.4:1 on your call. So a call is correct here.