JTs Raise Concept

[Crveballin]

Is this miss applying the JTs raise concept seeing that I am in the BB or does it apply to all multi-handed pots?

Also, I missed a raise on the turn and river didnt I?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Button checks.

Turn: (6 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Button folds.

River: (10 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks.

Final Pot: 10 BB

[einbert]

I think the raise preflop is fine given that the limpers are on average quite loose, but checking might be slightly better.

I would definitely have raised the turn, via the free showdown move.

[Malcom Reynolds]

I like raising the turn too, but was surprised at how everyone wants to take a free showdown on the river. Maybe I underestimate the strength of the villian's bet, but I would have gone for a value bet on the river.

Can someone explain the thinking here for me? I'm not challenging anyone, just trying to understand.

[W. Deranged]

Malcom,

Good point. I would tend to opt against raising because:

1. As brettbrettr pointed out, the turn lead could correspond to a missed check-raise on the flop. We will usually be behind those hands.

2. If the turn bet was a total steal attempt and/or a semi-bluff, villain will only call if he has hit and fold most others.

3. We have a marginal kicker with our J.

I think overall the range of hands that villain might have AND WILL CALL A RIVER BET is slightly tilted toward hands with Qs and slightly better Js, though I think it is hardly an obvious distinction. My guess is it's pretty close to neutral here and a read on opponent's river calling standards will often swing the balance.

[brettbrettr]

This is the only part of it I don't like. I think if you raise the turn you have to be willing to check behind on the river.

Read dependant of course, but there are many times an SB missed a c/r on this flop.

This is why I don't think a call the turn and bet the river if checked to line is unreasonable.

[Malcom Reynolds]

It's been a while since I last played 2/4, but I really don't remember all that much check-raising going on then. Against an unknown, I find it hard to put someone on a missed checkraise.

But if the possibility of this being a missed checkraise is as big as you suggest, then I understand/agree with the check behind line on the river.

So yeah. I could see either based on the read of unknowns at the limit or that specific player.

[Crveballin]

One vital pice of information I forgot to include was Villian is a TAG over 71 hands: VPIP 18.3, PFR 7.04, with high aggression.

[JinX11]

[ QUOTE ]
I like raising the turn too, but was surprised at how everyone wants to take a free showdown on the river. Maybe I underestimate the strength of the villian's bet, but I would have gone for a value bet on the river.

Can someone explain the thinking here for me? I'm not challenging anyone, just trying to understand.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) We have middle pair, decent kicker with the Q on board. I don't think it's likely SB will fold a Q to a bet on the river. I don't think SB will call often enough with hands that we beat. So, I don't see a lot of value.

2) That 9 was not a good card for us. 78 and KT liked it a lot with their OESD on the turn.

3) I'm weak on the river.

[W. Deranged]

Notice that relative position gives you a perfect opportunity to take control of the hand on the turn. When SB bets into you, I'd raise. This will most likely get the pot heads-up, and SB could be stealing/betting a worse J/6/5, etc...

[hobbsmann]

I thinking raising the turn is best here. Also, your preflop raise is fine but I prefer to apply this concept when I have position.