Black v. Matusow Hand ... Good laydown??

[morgan180]

Date / Time: 2005-07-13 21:40:00
Title: Gregory Rice Eliminated in 28th Place ($274,090)

Gregory Rice goes all in under the gun, preflop for his last $200,000. Andrew Black reraises to $350,000. Mike Matusow calls. The flop comes 10-9-7 rainbow. Black checks. Matusow comes up firing for $450,000, and Black folds pocket Queens face up. Matusow flips over 10-10 for top set. Rice shows J-5. The turn is a 5, and the river is a Jack, giving him a very cruel two pair on the river. Rice is eliminated, and Matusow is sitting on $5,104,000 in chips.

Would anyone call/reraise here?

[sekrah]

Umm, obviously it was a good laydown!

[BlackAces]

I wouldn't. I don't think Mike makes that bet without a big hand, knowing that he can just check it down and probably eliminate someone. While there is a side pot, it's not really big enough to risk handing $700,000 over to the all-in player by forcing out a better hand.

[johnegolfer]

You figure he has to have something because the side pot was empty or close to it wasn't it? Surely he wouldn't bluff with nothing extra to win and a chance to eliminate a player at this stage of the game...

JE

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
You figure he has to have something because the side pot was empty or close to it wasn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

while this may be true, the something could easily by ATs (pretty marginal call preflop, but chipleaders do funny things sometimes). Not to mention that Matusow could have JJ or 99 and was trying to isolate against an AK or something similar, to increase his chances of winning the pot. I think this is a very tough laydown, and one that I would probably not be able to make.

[johnegolfer]

Not saying I could either, just the logic for doing it. As it was, I was second in that...

JE

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You figure he has to have something because the side pot was empty or close to it wasn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

while this may be true, the something could easily by ATs (pretty marginal call preflop, but chipleaders do funny things sometimes). Not to mention that Matusow could have JJ or 99 and was trying to isolate against an AK or something similar, to increase his chances of winning the pot. I think this is a very tough laydown, and one that I would probably not be able to make.

[/ QUOTE ]

I tend to agree. While Matusow might be unlikely to BLUFF into a dry side pot in this situation, there are lots of decent hands he would bet like this after catching a piece of the flop. The only real clue is the fact that he called the raise preflop, which limits his range of hands somewhat, but it's hard to say exactly how much.

Some people think it is always a mistake if you bet into a dry side pot and knock out a better hand, or, for that matter, a hand with a chance to improve by the river. That's not true at all. The only time it's a truly bad bet is when the bettor has very little chance of beating the all-in player himself.

For example, if Matusow has KK here, and Black has AA, it's a huge win if Matusow can get him to lay it down. He has every reason to expect he's ahead of the all-in player, but the actual result against the all-in player is irrelevant. The fact that he gives himself a great chance to win a million chips, where he has virtually no chance if Black stays in the pot, is worth way more than the value of eliminating one player.

[BlackAces]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You figure he has to have something because the side pot was empty or close to it wasn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

while this may be true, the something could easily by ATs (pretty marginal call preflop, but chipleaders do funny things sometimes). Not to mention that Matusow could have JJ or 99 and was trying to isolate against an AK or something similar, to increase his chances of winning the pot. I think this is a very tough laydown, and one that I would probably not be able to make.

[/ QUOTE ]
The betting doesn't really support this though.

Before the flop, with an all-in bet and a small reraise, I don't see anyone calling cold with AT, chip leader or not. He probably has a medium-large pair or AK-AQ.

After the flop, a $450K bet into a million-dollar pot isn't trying to chase someone out. If Mike wanted the other guy to leave, he would have bet closer to $700K-$800K, and probably laid down if the other guy came over the top. Mike was trying to build a bigger side pot and see if he could bust 2 at the same time, figuring the other guy might have a huge hand that he couldn't get away from.

I don't think it's a terribly hard laydown to make...it'd require some thought, but it could be done.

[phuc]

[ QUOTE ]
You figure he has to have something because the side pot was empty or close to it wasn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't the log say that the Gregory Rice goes all-in for $200,000 and that Black re-raised to $350,000? With Matusow calling, that makes the side pot $300,000. Granted, Matusow's bet on the flop ($450,000) is over the side pot, but if both of them were in contention for the main pot, it's not that far off of a bet. With Black's preflop re-raise and Matusow's read of both players, maybe he put Black on a big hand (such as QQ) and he knew that they were both ahead of Rice so it was more likely that they were both contending for the main pot as well. Then again, if he checks the flop and bets out the turn, he probably makes more money (but would violate the semi-etiquette of checking down for the best chances to knock out the all-in player).

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
(but would violate the semi-etiquette of checking down for the best chances to knock out the all-in player).

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not sure this really applies so far from the FT and any big money "leaps." but i've never played in the WSOP ME, so who knows.